YANGON, April 7 (AFP) - Reconciliation talks between democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and the junta have dragged on for 18 long and frustrating months, but some observers are now hopeful they will soon reach a breakthrough.
The contents of the secret talks are known only to Aung San Suu Kyi and the ruling generals who visit her lakeside villa, where she has been held under house arrest since September 2000, a month before the contacts began.
However, the leadership of the Nobel peace laureate's National League for Democracy (NLD), is optimistic the talks are about to wrap up a preliminary "confidence-building" stage and begin addressing a political transition.
NLD secretary U Lwin said the process was on the point of leaping that hurdle last month when it was derailed by the regime's announcement that it had foiled a coup plot mounted by relatives of former dictator Ne Win.
"I think that it was about time that we might be able to go for the dialogue, then unfortunately we had this coup attempt," he told AFP in an interview last week at the party's ramshackle Yangon headquarters.U Lwin said that although the contacts had so far moved far too slowly and produced too little, the party was confident they would soon be back on track and begin broaching substantial issues.
"That day must be finally reached at one stage. Whether after Burmese New Year we really don't know," he said, referring to the April 13-17 holiday. "But I'm rather optimistic that we are getting near."
The veteran democracy campaigner scoffed at suggestions the NLD could lose patience and pull the plug on the peace talks if they fail to yield dramatic results soon."I would like to ask those people who are really fed up and think this has been long enough -- what would be the alternative?" he asked.
But Western governments are growing impatient, demanding that Aung San Suu Kyi be released and urging the regime to start building a framework for a transition government partly made up of civilians.
Snapping at the generals' heels is legislation making its way to the United States Congress which would ban imports from Myanmar worth some 500 million dollars a year.
"The threat of American sanctions is something they worry about," said one diplomat in Yangon. "They will try to avoid the trade ban if they can, but what they'll come up with, who knows."
High hopes have been attached to the April 22 visit here by UN envoy Razali Ismail, who brokered the contacts that began in October 2000, winning the trust and respect of both sides of Myanmar's political divide.
"Everyone is looking for a concrete development from Razali's visit," said one diplomat. "It's time for something more.""Between now and June we will see some major developments. I don't think they're shadow-boxing any more," said another highly-placed observer.
But there are doubts the generals are confident in their ability to handle the delicate next phase without unleashing forces that will see them join Chile's Pinochet and Indonesia's Suharto on the list of disgraced autocrats.
"The generals have nothing to gain and everything to lose," said one Asian diplomat, noting that the regime's grip on power was firmer than ever after four decades of martial rule.
"They know what happens to military regimes that lose power... For them it is not only a question of power, but also of their very survival."
Myanmar's Foreign Minister Win Aung reiterated last week that the junta would not rush into reforms, but that prospects for change have improved now the regime has abandoned its confrontational stance with the opposition.
"It had been for many, many years confrontational between each side against each other... The government was attacking in its articles and the NLD was attacking and putting on pressure," he told AFP."But it has stopped... and the atmosphere now being laid down is softer, more pleasant," he said.
Despite failing to progress to the important second stage, the talks have borne fruit, securing the release of more than 250 political prisoners and lifting pressure on the NLD which was in ruins before they began.The party, which the junta prevented from taking power after a landslide 1990 election victory, has been allowed to reopen dozens of branch offices and membership numbers are swelling, particularly among the young.
As a result, both the NLD and political observers say Aung San Suu Kyi's only option is to stick with the reconciliation process, with all its faults.
"Her best hope is to continue with the dialogue and hope that pressure from the international community will force the junta to give an inch, or maybe even half a centimetre," the Asian diplomat said.
"She cannot really pull out now. Their backs were to the wall when they started... and for the military it's part of their calculation that she cannot go back," another diplomat concurred."For a political party, this confidence-building stage is better than nothing."