After thirteen months of talks, finalization in view?
By Win Htein
Mizzima News (www.mizzima.com)
Nov. 28: UN Special Envoy Razali Ismail is currently in Rangoon in order to attempt to initiate fresh progress in the 13-months long democracy talks between the military government and the opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
But observers say the talks have stalled since July. However, no confirmation can be given regarding what is really happening inside the talks; no official information has been furnished from either side.
U Lwin, spokesperson for Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy, said he does not have permission to talk about the secret meeting but he believes the process is still at the confidence-building stage. Meanwhile, a rumor causing widespread concern among the exile Burmese community has it that Mr. Razali has proposed a ‘transition government plan’ to Rangoon during his last visit. Now he is said to attempt to finalize this plan.
The proposal is thought to center around UN-monitored elections, amnesty for the ruling State Peace and Development Council leaders who abused of human rights and allotted seats in Parliament for the military. If the agreement were to be signed by both sides, elections would take place in 2005.
U Lwin denied this rumor as saying; “I don't know anything about that”. Neither the SPDC nor Mr. Razali have come forward with any comment. Moreover, opposition politicians in exile, not usually hesitating to comment, have also exercised silence on this occasion.
“This rumor has been linked to opposition groups in exile”, claimed an observer in Washington. “This proposal is very similar to various proposals of NCG”, he pointed out, referring to the exile-based government, the National Collation Government of Union of Burma.
In Rangoon, the NLD is trying to re-open its township offices, which were shut down by the military in 1998 when the party, in conjunction with some ethnic parties, set up an alternative parliament, the Committee Representing People’s Parliament (CRPP).
“We have reopened 25 offices in Rangoon and 11 offices in the Mandalay Division. Now we are on the way to re-opening offices at Maguay, Irrawaddy, Pegu and Mon State”, U Lwin told the Democratic Voice of Burma. Furthermore, about 200 political prisoners including some MPs and senior members of the NLD have been released.
However, the spokesperson added that 18 MPs of his party and more than 800 members were still in jails. “The rate of release is very restricted”, he criticized the authorities. According to human right groups, there are about 1,800 political prisoners in the jails.
Many changes have taken place inside the SPDC, too, in recent weeks. Seven generals, including Secretary 3-Win Myint and Military Affair Minister Tin Hla, were dismissed from their posts. Ten out of twelve regional commanders were ordered back to Rangoon. The junta's spokesperson Maj-Gen Kyaw Win confirmed that 10 regional commanders are now in Rangoon, filling higher positions. But he said there is no plan to fill the positions left by vacant Secretary 3- Win Myint and Secretary 2- Tin Oo, who died in a helicopter crash. The SPDC will be run by a troika of the top three generals, Chairman Than Shwe, Vice Chairman Maung Aye and secretary 1- Khin Nyunt. “This change will not affect the talks but will rather enhance them”, the spokesman added.
Some analysts say the junta is now moving in a positive direction. “The SPDC wants to minimize its structure and then to prepare for a future civilian government”, commented U Htay Aung, a defense analyst in Thailand. “Specifically, it wants to reduce regional commands from twelve to four in order to reduce a power struggle”.
The UN Special Envoy for human rights, Mr. Pinheiro, said that the situation has improved and is offering a “golden opportunity for change”. The International Labor Organization said it perceived some positive signs despite the continued use of forced labour in some areas. The UN aid agencies, the Japanese government and the EU want to resume humanitarian assistance to this military-ruled country.
In this situation, the news of a proposal for a ‘transition government’ by Mr Razali may be more than just a rumor. It may well be backed up by some real facts! Mr Razali is now in Rangoon. Many people are hoping that he will bring some significant and substantive news on his return!
Win Htein is a correspondent for the Democratic Voice of Burma.