Myanmar's historic talks show few signs of progress after a year
The first anniversary of historic talks between Myanmar's junta and the democratic opposition aimed at "national reconciliation" passed unnoticed last month, and for a reason.The dialogue, informed sources say, has more or less reached a standstill.
As people in Myanmar generally observe symbolic dates, it would have seemed likely that either the junta or Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) would have marked the anniversary of the talks that began in October 2000 with some kind of statement.
But apparently it was too soon to send a positive message. The two sides, previous arch-enemies who have agreed not to reveal anything about the substance of their talks, said nothing.
Diplomats say the most remarkable thing about the talks after one year is that they are still taking place."There has been no statement because there is a great deal of frustration ... but they are still in contact," explained a Yangon-based analyst.Another observer said: "It's not going as well as it was three months ago."
According to informed sources, the junta and the NLD are still in the "confidence-building" stage and are far from reaching the ultimate objective of the dialogue: democratisation and the establishment of a civil government.
The NLD and the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) are really discussing only two issues at the moment -- the freeing of political prisoners and the re-opening of NLD branch offices around the country, they said.
The talks are being carried out sporadically through a liaison officer who couriers messages between the junta and Aung San Suu Kyi, who remains under de facto house arrest.The NLD has made it clear they are frustrated by the slow pace of prisoner releases.
The junta says it has released some 186 NLD members since January, but 810 party members remain behind bars, with 17 of them NLD members of parliament from 1990 elections that were nullified by the military. The total number of NLD members in jail accounts for more than half of the 1,500 political prisoners the UN says are incarcerated in Myanmar.Only 25 of the 40 original NLD branch offices have been authorised to re-open in Yangon in addition to their Mandalay headquarters and two other township offices.
"For the outside world the pace seems a bit slow, but for us it is going reasonably well," said deputy foreign minister Khin Maung Win. "There has been a confrontation between the two sides for the last ten years, so to make a 180-degree turn needs of course a certain amount of time.""This government knows very well that the military can't rule forever," he added. "We have no intention of clinging to power."
Analysts explained that the slowing pace of the talks could be attributed to a reluctance by the junta's top leader, Senior General Than Shwe, to move the dialogue forward.
"The major break is the number-one, and he holds total and absolute power," an analyst said."Many believe that if it were up to Khin Nyunt it would move a lot faster," another observer said, referring to the regime's number-three leader, who has been charged with monitoring the talks.
Some observers believe a military shake-up that began last week and resulted in the sacking of high-ranking officials and the consolidation of power in Yangon weeds out hard-liners opposed to the talks.
Meanwhile, Aung San Suu Kyi "is in good spirits and is still ready for a compromise," an informed source says. And the NLD remains cautious to avoid any gesture that could be perceived by the ruling junta as a provocation, diplomats said."She has no alternative but to continue the dialogue," an analyst said.
For the junta, disrupting the talks would have potentially disastrous consequences.Western countries have thus far given Yangon the benefit of the doubt and are ready, if real progress is made, to begin lifting economic sanctions against Myanmar, whose economy is in shambles.
"There couldn't be a better environment than there is now," another observer noted. "The US and Europe have shown they were ready to ease their stand if the dialogue is moving ahead." The European Union, which has sent several fact-finding teams to the military state, will soon send another troika to Yangon. The International Labour Organisation, too, is watching Myanmar closely and issued a report on forced labour following its October mission which Yangon says is "constructive".
Ismail Razali, the special envoy to UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, is due to return to Myanmar later this month for his sixth visit as a "dialogue facilitator.""The environment is favourable for progress in the dialogue, but the ball is now in the SPDC's court," an observer said.