Burma: A solution underway
By Win Htein
Mizzima News
January 21: The United Nations Special Envoy for Burma, Razali Ismail will soon return to Rangoon to finalize his mission on negotiation process between the military government and the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) in Burma.
"He will arrive here 3rd February and stay to 8th. I hope that he could bring significant progress this time", a senior politician who met Razali's representative in Rangoon told Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB) recently.
This is 7th trip for Razali since UN secretary general Kofi Annan appointed him in April 1999. After 3rd trip to Burma in 2000, he announced there is a secret talk between the ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) leader Lt-Gen Khin Nyunt and the NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi who remains under house arrest. Many believe that Razali could reach a political agreement between the SPDC and the NLD this time.
"It depends on how the SPDC responds. I hope they will find a way from the current secret talks to go to genuine dialogue. Mr Razali has told me that he plans a guide map for Burma in the year 2002. So I am optimistic that we could reach to tripartite talks this year", said Khun Htun Oo, chairman of Shan National League for Democracy (SNLD), which won second majority parliamentary seats in the 1990 election.
The SNLD leader said he plans to discuss with all the ethnic leaders including armed rebels to prepare for the tripartite talks.
"We must be ready for the UN-sponsored tripartite dialogue. I have planned to meet all ethnic political parties including those parties banned by the junta, "cease-fire" armed groups and all armed ethnic rebels including KNU (Karen National Union), KNPP (Karenni National Progress Party) and SSA (Shan State Army) this year", he added.
Many observers agree with him. Some analysts pointed that recent military reshuffle within the SPDC is a sign to encourage the talks.
"There are now only three top generals remaining in the SPDC who participated in crushing the pro-democracy uprising of 1988. All the regional commanders and the BSO chiefs are from new blood. So I hope this reshuffle will help the talks go ahead", said U Htay Aung, a defense analyst based in Thailand.
On November 9, the junta dismissed seven top generals including Secretary 3- Lt-Gen. Win Myint and reshuffled 10-of 12-regional commanders. Then 10 "new blood" Brig-Generals were appointed as regional commanders in last December. And four of ten former commanders have become chiefs of Bureau of Special Operation (BSO) while six are chief staffs in War Office in Rangoon.
However, another Burmese political analyst Aung Naing Oo said the current talk is still in a confidence-building stage. "There are two things needed from the SPDC side before entering into a real dialogue. Those are: to release more political prisoners especially Members of Parliament and CEC members of the NLD and permission to reopen more NLD offices. These are basic conditions for the dialogue to go ahead", he said.
According to the NLD spokesman U Lwin, there are 809 party members, including 17 MPs still in jail although 207-political prisoners were released. The NLD needs to reopen about 300-offices nation-wide although 30-offices were reopened in Rangoon Division.
Some exiled political activists view that the SPDC is not honest. They said that the talk is, from the military junta side, just a "show" to international community to lift economic sanction and to sway the country`s bad human right records.
But Khun Htun Oo and some analysts believe the SPDC is now seriously considering how to negotiate with the opposition. "They have no option except dialogue. They face a lot of pressure from inside and outside. But we must understand they are an armed group, which is difficult to bend. So we must wait some more time", the Shan leader said.
Aung Naing Oo agrees with him. "14-months are not so long for a dialogue process. Some negotiation programs are longer than that. The important thing is: what are they negotiating, not how long they negotiate", he pointed out.
On the other hand, many are worried that how an agreement can be reached between the two confronting sides. The NLD calls to honor the 1990-election verdict and convene the people`s parliament while the SPDC calls the National Convention.
Khun Htun Oo suggested; "The SPDC should allow calling a parliament while the NLD promises that it`s parliament is not to take over power directly. Then the parliament should establish an interim government. I think this is the best way for give and take. This is not a new idea. However it may be the best option for this long standing troubled land after 12 years that an election was held but the ruthless military refused to honor the people`s verdict.
Win Htein is a correspondent for Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB), based in Norway.