Reconciliation proves slow to arrive in Burma
Analysts say Suu Kyi could feel her credibility is on the line if she fails to secure concessions soon, writes Amy Kazmin
Financial Times -Published: March 26 2002
General Ne Win ruled Burma with an iron hand for 26 years, setting a policy based on his whims, xenophobia and deep faith in numerology and astrology. Even after he stepped out of the spotlight in 1988, many Burmese suspected the former dictator, now 92, could still be an obstacle to progress in the military junta's talks with Aung San Suu Kyi, the pro-democracy leader.
The spectre of Gen Ne Win's lingering influence was finally laid to rest this month by the unexpected arrest of his son-in-law and three notorious grandsons for allegedly plotting an anti-government coup.
The move against the once-invincible and widely-loathed family prompted quiet rejoicing in Rangoon, while official explanations that the family had opposed the junta's plan to build "multi-party democracy" in Burma also raised diplomats' expectations of fresh progress in the talks with Ms Suu Kyi, now confined to her family bungalow.
But the junta's subsequent postponement for a month of last week's scheduled visit by Razali Ismail, the UN mediator, has prompted fresh debate about whether senior generals really intend to move to a substantive dialogue with Ms Suu Kyi.
What diplomats and pro-democracy leaders are now waiting for is Ms Suu Kyi's release from her current confinement to fulfil her role as National League of Democracy (NLD) president, helping to rebuild the tattered party organisation. The party won democratic elections in 1990 but has never been allowed to rule. Mr Razali's intervention on his next visit, delayed by the junta until April 22, is now seen as crucial for prodding the reluctant generals into action.
Colonel Hla Min, the government's official spokesman, defended the last-minute decision to temporarily delay the important visit. "After this attempted coup, there are certain priorities that the government has to give attention to," he said. But diplomats - many of whom still doubt the seriousness of the coup plot - have warned that the delay could fuel the demands for fresh sanctions and pressure is mounting given the lack of visible progress towards ending the long political impasse.
The US Congress is currently considering a ban on any imports from Burma (the current value is estimated at $400m), while campaigners in Britain and elsewhere, including Archbishop Desmond Tutu and companies such as The Body Shop, have begun a campaign for a ban on any new investment in the country.
"It's time for them to prove their genuine commitment to reform and they haven't done that," John Jackson, director of The Burma Campaign UK, said of the ruling junta.
Since the talks began, the regime has gradually released a trickle of over 250 political prisoners, at the cautious rate of about 10 per month, though human rights groups estimate that more 1,300 remain imprisoned. The NLD has also been allowed to re-open some of its offices and hold meetings among small groups of its members without harassment, says U Lwin, a party spokesman, though military intelligence officers still closely monitor those who come and go from the party's Rangoon headquarters.
"What we really need, what we are looking for, is the opening of the meaningful dialogue," says Mr U Lwin. "The sooner the better."
For the moment, though, the generals are turning their attention to suspected disloyalty within the regime. The government has already sacked the police chief, the air force chief, two regional commanders and the chief of the army medical service and analysts suspect the purges probably are not over yet.
But while the junta wants the international community to wait patiently for the army to get its house in order, analysts say the tentative reconciliation process risks breaking down unless there is a big step forward soon.
Analysts also suggest that Ms Suu Kyi, who has so far endorsed the talks, could feel her credibility is on the line if she fails to secure concessions, including more political space for her party, soon. "We are crossing through a very crucial period," Mr U Lwin said. "Everything is very fragile."