Seeking a way out for Rangoon

LARRY JAGAN
Bangkok Post
August 09 2003

Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai has been actively canvassing support for his proposed road map which would bring national reconciliation and democratic reform to Burma within the next few years.

Last week Mr Surakiart discussed his ideas for a road map with his Burmese counterpart Win Aung during their meeting in Bangkok. Both foreign ministers were upbeat after their discussions. And Win Aung promised to fully brief his superiors in Rangoon on the ideas, but insisted that the government needed time consider them fully.

``We need time to work things out,'' Win Aung told journalists. ``What I can say now is that the problem is very complicated and we cant rush into any conclusion.''

Undeterred though, the Thai foreign minister will be discussing the road map concepts on Monday with the UN envoy on Burma, Razali Ismail, who helped broker the original dialogue process between Burma's military rulers and the opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

In the meantime, Mr Surakiart has also instructed ministry officials to develop the road map idea as rapidly as possible. Deputy permanent secretary Viirasakdi Futrakul _ who is leading the ministerial road map team _ was in Rangoon earlier this week, where he had further discussions with his Burmese counterparts. And there is to be a closed-door meeting with Burmese opposition politicians and representatives of ethnic groups at Chulalongkorn University next week to brainstorm on some if the initial ideas on the framework for the road map.

Mr Surakiart publicly floated his new formula for breaking Burma's current political deadlock a few weeks ago. Ministry sources say it first emerged during talks he had in Austria and the United Kingdom. Since then he has vigorously canvassed for support from the countries that have expressed an interest in helping Burma implement democratic reform.

It was only seriously unveiled at last month's Asem (Asia Europe Meeting) forum of Asian and European foreign ministers in Bali.

To date, though, the Thai idea of a road map remains rather vague. ``It's really only a concept that is still being fleshed out,'' said a senior Thai foreign ministry source. It is being developed through continued discussions with interested parties and Thailand's main Asian and European allies. ``Its working idea has to be refined before it gets seriously unveiled,'' said a senior Thai diplomat.

The road map is an evolving concept. ``It's not really a road map as such,'' a European minister at the Bali meeting told the Bangkok Post, ``but ten or twelve proposed steps which would help the Burmese military government to move towards full democracy within the next few years.''

The Thai foreign minister has told the Burmese government that it must come up with its own ``road map'' to national reconciliation and democracy. Thailand wants the Burmese regime to propose a series of concrete and practical steps towards democratisation. As part of this process, the Thai government would host a meeting of interested parties which would be tasked with fleshing out the Burmese road map. ``A non-binding brainstorming meeting of experts and senior officials,'' as Mr Surakiart now describes it.

But for the international community and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the first step on any road map must be the release of the opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been held under what the government calls ``protective custody'' for more than two months now.

The UN envoy Mr Razali, who helped broker the original talks between Aung San Suu Kyi and the Burmese generals, has been very clear: there can be no dialogue process when one of the key partners is under detention. The international community, including Asean, have made it clear that this must be the very first step in any reconciliation process.

So far Thailand has not made the details of their proposals public. Thai officials admit the plan involves a course of steps _ after the release of Aung San Suu Kyi _ which would lead to Burma becoming a fully-fledged democracy before 2006, when Burma is due to take over the chairmanship of Asean.

These would include Thailand hosting an international forum with representatives of the Burmese military government on the road map, liberalisation of the economy, increasing political freedom, drawing up a constitution and then holding elections within the next two years or so.

Thai officials are now talking privately about the road map as a plan involving five stages. The first phase would be a return to the status quo before Aung San Suu Kyi was detained on May 30. This initial stage is being termed as a roll-back to May 30, characterised by the release of the opposition leader from prison, freeing the other opposition leaders from house arrest and the re-opening of the National League for Democracy headquarters and provincial offices that were closed since the end of May.

This would be followed by a second phase of ``confidence building'' in which there would be a credible investigation into the attack on the pro-democracy leader and her supporters in Depayin, an end to the press campaign against Aung San Suu Kyi and her party, the release of political prisoners starting with the elderly and the sick, and the signing of truces with the remaining ethnic groups still fighting against the Burmese army and the start peace talks.

The next phases would involve the drafting of a constitution involving the military, the pro-democracy opposition and the ethnic groups followed by the adoption of an actual constitution.

The Thais are advocating either the South African model, a truth and reconciliation commission, or taking a leaf from their own past when a drafting committee of 20 people was appointed to draw up the constitution. ``It would be essential, though, to have an agreed time frame for the drafting process,'' said a Thai official.

The implementation or adoption of the constitution would involve a transitional period before independent elections, a fourth phase which Thai officials are suggesting may be between 10 and 20 years. At this penultimate stage, Thailand envisages the lifting of all international sanctions against Rangoon.

In the fifth phase, independent international monitors would oversee the elections, after which an international conference on aid for Burma would be held.

In fact, there is very little new in this framework that the UN envoy has not already been discussing in detail with the three main players in Burma: the military, the democratic opposition and the ethnic minorities.

What is new is the Thai proposal to host an international forum on Burma involving representatives of other interested parties. Various formulas have been put forward but it seems now that the US, EU, China, India, Japan and some Asean countries would be the key nucleus of this group.

Mr Surakiart wants a meeting of senior officials and experts to take place as soon as possible before the Asean leaders summit in Bali in October, he told journalists last week. ``But these meetings would continue, and at ministerial level when necessary, till the national reconciliation and democratisation process in Burma was complete,'' said a Thai official privately.

The Thai road map, vague as it may be, could form the basis of a new process that might help break the current political deadlock in Rangoon. The biggest problem remains Burmese participation. Rangoon is still lukewarm, and the Thais do not envisage Aung San Suu Kyi and the ethnic minorities being involved in the initial stages of drawing up the road map.

The UN and Mr Razali will have to be central to any attempts to draw up a road map for Burma's path to democracy. Until Aung San Suu Kyi is released from detention, any talk of a road map is premature.

But the Thais are unlikely to overcome the biggest obstacle to resolving Burma's political deadlock, the xenophobia and intransigence of Burma's military rulers, especially the top leader, Senior General Than Shwe.