Release on horizon for Suu Kyi
By Roger Mitton-UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL
source : Washington Times : 30/01/2002
YANGON, Myanmar, Jan. 30 (UPI) -- The military government of Myanmar and the nation's major political party -- including its Nobel Prize-winning leader, currently held under house arrest -- is on the brink of a major breakthrough, sources close to each party have told United Press International exclusively.
If all goes to plan, sources say, the breakthrough will involve freeing Aung San Suu Kyi, 56, the head of the National League for Democracy who was awarded the Nobel Prize for Peace in 1991. She and her party were victorious in 1990 elections, winning four out of five seats in the Burmese parliament that the military regime subsequently refused to recognize. Despite international outcry, Suu Kyi was placed under house arrest shortly before the election for the next six years, then again in 2000.
The release of Suu Kyi, along with 17 members-elect of parliament taken into custody as well, is likely to be the first key event leading to the eventual liberation of this country from military rule.
"There is no going back," said one senior official said of the negotiations under way with Suu Kyi and a general representing the junta. "The atmosphere is very good between Suu Kyi and (Gen.) Kyaw Win. They joke and laugh." All those released will receive an amnesty, he and other sources added.
The official, who personally is involved in the talks, spoke to UPI on the condition of anonymity. Both sides want to keep the delicate negotiations so secret that they have agreed neither will speak to the media without the other's consent, which has never occurred.
Nevertheless, a military official confirmed for UPI that the two parties are indeed negotiating Suu Kyi's release, saying, "The dialogue is headed in that direction." The landmark move is expected to come within the next few weeks, if not days, the sources said.
A military junta has ruled Myanmar, formerly Burma, since 1962. The current regime, which took power in 1988 after replacing former dictator Gen. Ne Win, has long promised a return to democratic government. In 1990, shortly after Suu Kyi returned to Myanmar after a long foreign exile in the United States and Britain, the new regime permitted free elections. However, the junta refused to honor the results of that election in which the NLD won 392 of the 485 seats contested. Suu Kyi, who galvanized the NLD, was placed under house arrest before the elections were held.
She was not freed until July 1995. During this period, when she was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, the international community showed its outrage against her detention and the cancellation of the election result by imposing economic and political sanctions against Myanmar.Since 1996, the United States has forbidden any new investment by U.S. companies in that country and has downgraded its diplomatic mission in Yangon, formerly Rangoon.
There are now high hopes, however, that the expected breakthrough and the release of Suu Kyi will lead to a relaxation of these sanctions and to a cautious re-engagement with the regime as it moves toward a hoped-for transition to democracy.
UPI's sources expect Suu Kyi's release to coincide with the inauguration in the coming weeks of a new pagoda near Yangon's international airport. The grand pagoda, which houses a huge elephant carved in white marble, will be formally opened by the regime's Lt. Gen. Khin Nyunt, who has been at the forefront of the current moves to engage Suu Kyi and the NLD.
Suu Kyi second detention dates to September 2000, following her attempts to travel outside Yangon against the wishes of the military.
Shortly afterward, the regime began the reconciliation talks. The talks are being led by Maj. Gen. Kyaw Win, 56, a contemporary of Suu Kyi, who is one of the more pragmatic military leaders. Kyaw Win is Lt.-Gen. Khin Nyunt's deputy in the department of military intelligence.
Also in 2000, the United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan appointed a special envoy, Tan Sri Razali Ismail, a former president of the U.N. general assembly, to help facilitate the dialogue process. It was Razali who, early last year, first revealed to the world that the landmark talks were under way in Myanmar. Over the course of six visits to Yangon, Razali has cultivated a rapport with both sides in this dialogue and has nudged it forward whenever it appeared headed for deadlock. He will visit again in February to cement the impending breakthrough.
Razali's task is helped by the fact that he is Malaysian. Myanmar's military rulers admire more than any other leader that of Malaysia, who shares the Malay Peninsula with Myanmar (as well as Thailand) and is one of the country's biggest investors. Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has been personally urging the Myanmar regime to strike an accord with Suu Kyi in order to bring economic development and progress to the resource-rich, but backward nation.
Over the past 15 months, urged on by Razali, the two participants in the landmark talks have met regularly either at Suu Kyi's residence at 54 University Avenue in Yangon or at a secret Ministry of Defense location. The section of University Avenue containing Suu Kyi's house has long been blocked off to normal traffic.
No outsiders are present at the actual talks, except Suu Kyi, Kyaw Win and their aides. The secrecy agreement has meant so far neither side has made any comment except vague generalities about being "cautiously optimistic" about the progress of the talks.
Last Oct. 10, the NLD, normally open to journalists, even went so far as to post a notice in all its offices stating that no party members may talk to the media except U Lwin, the designated spokesman. U Lwin, 77, acts as Suu Kyi's go-between with other party members. He visits her house every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, along with fellow party leaders Aung Shwe and Tin Oo, who were themselves released from detention last Aug. 26. A taciturn man who rarely reveals much at any time, U Lwin is a former military officer and a former deputy prime minister under the past leader, Gen. Ne Win. Both Aung Shwe and Tin Oo are also former senior military men.
On the surface, the achievements in the 15 months of dialogue have thus far been modest. A total of 207 NLD detainees have been released. But many hundreds more remain in jail. Nine NLD offices that had been closed down have been allowed to reopen in Yangon. As well, an additional 22 new offices have been opened in the capital area. Other NLD offices in another major city, Mandalay, and elsewhere around the country continue to remain open as before. Both sides have ceased their public vituperation of each other.
Indeed, they both speak in a very conciliatory manner about the other. Gen. Kyaw Win has said that he finds Suu Kyi "congenial and nice," and that their "discussions on transition are going very well." But still Suu Kyi remains under detention, as well as do many other party members.
On Jan. 4, the nation's Independence Day, the NLD held a large gathering at its Yangon headquarters on Shwegontaing Road. Around 400 people attended, including diplomats from the United States and Europe, and the party issued a statement calling for the release of Ms Suu Kyi and other political prisoners. It was the first time the party had issued such a formal statement since the talks began. Once the NLD representatives are freed, the talks are expected to move on to more substantive issues like the formation of a transitional government that will be tasked with completing the drafting of a new constitution and the holding of new elections. This process is likely to take two to three years.
In recognition of the breakthrough, participants in the talks believe that Western nations, notably the United States and the European Union, will ease economic sanctions and other constraints placed on dealings with Myanmar. Already, the United States and EU have softened their tone drastically when referring to Myanmar. The head of the U.S. embassy in Yangon, Priscilla Clapp, has spoken of "rays of hope."
One major hurdle to overcome is the regime's insistence that the military must take 25 percent of the seats in a future parliament. In an interview published shortly before the NLD's Independence Day meeting, regime spokesman Col. Hla Min said: "We will also be involved in the future political process of the country because we will be having 25 percent of the seats in the Parliament."
The NLD adamantly opposes this. But sources close to Razali say the problem can be resolved. Indeed, helping spur the reconciliation process is the recent revamping of the military regime in which seven top generals were sacked, and more importantly, 10 hard-line regional commanders were reassigned less powerful posts. These men had been a stumbling block to progress. They saw little need to compromise with Suu Kyi and they continued to remain unconvinced of the need for Myanmar to engage with the outside world.
Increasingly, however, these isolationist-inclined officers have been sidelined and the topmost military man, Senior Gen. Than Shwe, has steadily moved forward to his goal of bringing political reconciliation to this beleaguered nation.
One official involved in the talks said, "2002 will be the year of change." Razali himself has said that he expects this year will be "eventful" in Myanmar.