Radio Singapore International
March 13, 2004

In Burma there are growing signs of an imminent breakthrough in the country's political deadlock. Aung San Suu Kyi may be freed in the coming weeks and her party the National League for Democracy allowed to function normally. That's the assessment of the UN envoy for Burma Razali Ismail who has just completed his latest mission to Rangoon to try and start a real dialogue process between the military and the pro-democracy leader. Last year the Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt announced a seven-stage road plan to democracy - the first step which would be the convening of a National Convention to draw up a new constitution. Since then though very little has happened.

From Rangoon Larry Jagan reports:

Larry Jagan: Burma’s political future is at a crucial crossroads. There are growing signs that significant change may emerge in the next few weeks. But divisions within Myanmar’s military leadership over the dialogue process could delay any efforts to move the country towards democracy. The latest visit by the UN special envoy to Burma, Mr Razali Ismail, may prove to be the catalyst in resolving Burma’s political deadlock.

The prime minister General Khin Nyunt is committed to taking his country towards democracy and the detained pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi is prepared to support him according to Mr Razali. Aung San Suu Kyi – who is still under house arrest – is prepared to work with the prime minister the UN envoy said at the end of his three day visit to Rangoon. She told me she is prepared to turn a new page, said.

The UN envoy also expects to see Aung San Suu Kyi freed soon, maybe in a matter of weeks from now. Although Mr Razali was not given a specific date was given for her release, UN sources expect this time happen around the Water Festival in mid-April -- the festival that marks the Burmese New Year.

Last August General Khin Nyunt, shortly after he became prime minister, announced a seven-stage roadmap to democracy. Since then there has been little movement on what is described as the national reconciliation process – apart from the start of peace talks with the ethnic rebel group, the Karen.

While Mr Razali seems optimistic that the Burma's military leaders are now poised to move forward, the UN envoy was not any timetable for the future political process. The government may not have given Mr Razali any dates, but he says he now has some understanding of the steps that would be involved.

The first step is certain to be for Aung San Suu Kyi to be allowed to meet with the other NLD leaders – three of whom are still under house arrest in Rangoon. This is likely to happen soon. This would be followed by the release of more political prisoners, including the NLD leaders, and the reopening of the party’s offices throughout the country.

It now seems certain that Aung San Suu Kyi is prepared to co-operate with Khin Nyunt, including participating in the National Convention. Five months ago, when Mr Razali last visited Rangoon, the opposition leader told him she was prepared to work with General Khin Nyunt on the roadmap. Now it seems that the pro-democracy leader has strengthened her to position and according to Mr Razali is prepared to establish what she called "a harmonious relationship with the prime minister".

The real problem though remains whether General Khin Nyunt has the authority to press on with his roadmap. There is a major division between the top Burmese leaders over how fast to proceed with the national reconciliation process and what role if any Aung San Suu Kyi should play. While Khin Nyunt may be determined to press on with his roadmap, there is also no doubt that the country’s top leader Senior General Than Shwe would prefer to exclude the opposition leader altogether from the national reconciliation process and is no hurry to convene the National Convention – which would draft a new constitution.

Diplomats in Rangoon have long argued that Burma’s top general was the key obstacle to political progress in Burma. Aung San Suu Kyi’s position has been clear for sometime. She is prepared to work with the prime minister, but this offer of co-operation does not extend to General Than Shwe. Now Mr Razali seems to also be convinced that this is the case.

It is necessary that Prime Minister Khin Nyunt must be given a full mandate to take the necessary steps towards national reconciliation and democracy," he said on his return from Yangon. When pressed he declined to elaborate, but was clearly hinting that he hoped that General Than Shwe would allow the prime minister full power to proceed with the national reconciliation process.

Time is running out for the Generals and they know they have to do something soon. Prime Minister Khin Nyunt knows he must work with Aung San Suu Kyi if he is to move the process forward. He needs her and she needs him if there is to be real political change in Myanmar in the future.

The question is whether Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt will be allowed to implement his plans for democratisation by the country’s hardliners -- including General Than Shwe. Words of commitment are no longer sufficient. The next few weeks will show whether Burma is headed towards real political reform or whether the deadlock is just going to persist.