Aung San Suu Kyi is again under house arrest, as the UN envoy arrives in Rangoon and seeks talks with her as well as the generals.
The UN envoy Razali Ismail is scheduled to arrive in Rangoon tomorrow to renew his mission to free the opposition leader and restart the dialogue process. Mr Razali expects to meet all three of the country's top generals _ Than Shwe, Maung Aye and Khin Nyunt _ as well as the opposition leader, Aung San Suu Kyi.
``This time Mr Razali is going to try something new,'' said a UN official in New York. ``He hopes to shuttle between the sides and get them to start negotiating, not simply be the common point of contact between them.''
Although Mr Razali will certainly meet new Prime Minister Khin Nyunt, he is not guaranteed access to the two other key players, Gen Than Shwe and Mrs Suu Kyi.
``It really is a make or break mission,'' a western diplomat in Rangoon said, ``so seeing Aung San Suu Kyi is essential.'' After all, the regime has agreed to Mr Razali's visit and knows that means talking to both sides in Burma's political deadlock.
Mrs Suu Kyi has now been moved back to her lakeside home after being discharged from hospital last week, following major gynaecological surgery. Her doctor Tin Myo Win is still visiting her regularly at her home. He has told the authorities that she is now fit to receive visitors, although not too many at one time.
The opposition leader is effectively back under house arrest. ``Anyone who wants to see her must contact the authorities,'' Dr Tin Myo Win said.
International pressure on Rangoon to release the pro-democracy leader is likely to be stepped up in the coming weeks. Mrs Suu Kyi's move to house arrest is unlikely to satisfy the international community.
There is no doubt that Mr Razali will also be pressing Burma's top generals to free her as soon as possible. ``There can be no dialogue with one of the participants locked up,'' he told the Bangkok Post after he saw her in Insein prison on his last visit to Rangoon in June.
Diplomats in Rangoon believe it could still be several months before the opposition leader is actually freed.
Dr Tin Myo Win told journalists in Rangoon at the weekend that he would need to attend to Mrs Suu Kyi regularly for the next two months. This has led some diplomats to see the end of November as the earliest the opposition leader could expect to be released.
Mr Razali's main purpose though will be to see whether he can help revive the national reconciliation process; and what role he may be able to play in maintaining its momentum in the future. The focus of his talks with Gen Khin Nyunt is bound to be his recently announced seven-stage road map to democracy. It would seem that reconvening the National Convention is a central part of the general's plans.
The National Convention was established more than 10 years ago to draw up a new constitution, but has not met since 1996 after Mrs Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy walked out after accusing the military authorities of not allowing a free debate or discussion, and simply using it to rubber stamp decisions that had already been taken by the generals.
Now Gen Khin Nyunt is preparing to reconvene the National Convention. The convening committee has been reformed and new members appointed, largely because several older members have retired or passed away. Apart from those who are there because of their legal training or position, many of the new members are from military intelligence and are believed to share Gen Khin Nyunt's vision of change.
``The ethnic minorities have been contacted and told to prepare for the convention's opening,'' said an ethnic leader in Rangoon who declined to be identified. ``Some of them have even been told to have new suits made.''
But so far it is unclear what role Mrs Suu Kyi and the NLD will play in the reconvened National Convention. The NLD has made it clear that it will not return to the convention unless it is radically reformed and restructured.
It is these key issues that Mr Razali will be discussing with both sides during his lightening visit to Rangoon this week.
``UN representatives have suggested to the regime that the convention be reformed on the basis of 40% being the political parties on the basis of the 1990 election results, 30% the ethnic minorities _ split equally between those who have signed ceasefire agreements and the others _ with the remaining 30% being military or government representatives,'' a senior western diplomat in Rangoon said.
Much depends now upon whether Mr Razali is able to convince Burma's generals _ especially Khin Nyunt and Than Shwe _ to give Mrs Suu Kyi and her NLD a central role in the national reconciliation process.
The international community, especially the Association of Southeast Asian Nations leaders as they prepare for their summit in Bali next week, expect some kind of sign that Rangoon is planning to introduce significant political and economic change in the coming weeks. But strong suspicions remain that Gen Khin Nyunt and the other top generals are intend only on dragging the national reconciliation process out indefinitely.
In the past there was definitely a division within the military top brass over how to deal with Mrs Suu Kyi, with the prime minister favouring working with her. In recent weeks though there have been hints from the regime that these differences have disappeared.
``Khin Nyunt is pressing on with his plans and has decided he cannot deal with the Lady,'' a source in Rangoon close to the prime minister and intelligence chief said. US intervention, and especially its allegations some weeks ago that Mrs Suu Kyi was on a hunger strike, has galvanised Burma's top military rulers and convinced them they must sideline her and the NLD.
``It was the NLD which walked out of the National Convention, so it is up to it to return,'' Gen Khin Nyunt told Thai Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai when they met in Rangoon last week. But the NLD leaders have consistently said the National Convention needs to be reformed before they would consider taking part again.
The Burmese regime may be considering a twin track national reconciliation process: the National Convention without the NLD and direct talks of some sort with Mrs Suu Kyi, possibly on the formation of an interim government or administration, a senior Thai diplomat said.
But Gen Khin Nyunt is well aware that a constitutional process that does not have the pro-democracy forces playing a central role would not be credible _ and certainly would not satisfy the international community. So some form of restructured National Convention is probably what will eventually emerge.
``Burma's leaders want to have a credible and viable process, but don't expect there to be significant changes in the near future,'' said a government official who accompanied Mr Surakiart to Rangoon last week. Significant changes must emerge soon.
Time is running out for the generals to prove they are sincere about political and economic change. Even the countries of Southeast Asia will not accept promises without reform indefinitely.
Asean may be prepared to be patient with Rangoon a little longer, but there are strong signs in several of the region's capitals that if there is no major change in Burma within the next year, expelling it from the organisation will become a real option.