Burma's generals still cling to power one year after Aung San Suu Kyi's release from house arrest, and there is no reason to believe they have any intention of starting serious political talks with the opposition leader.
Burma has changed little over the 12 months since Ms Suu Kyi was freed. The country's fragile dialogue process remains deadlocked and in danger of collapsing.
Burma's top generals insist they are committed to economic and political reform but do little to show their sincerity. The euphoria that surrounded the opposition leader's release a year ago has given way to disappointment and frustration as Burma slips deeper into crisis and despair.
``Ms Suu Kyi's release is seen as a signal that the military regime is prepared to move on to the next stage of the national reconciliation process: substantive talks with the opposition leader on the country's political future,'' one senior Western diplomat said shortly after Ms Suu Kyi's release. The UN envoy Razali Ismail, who convinced the generals to free Ms Suu Kyi and helped broker the talks between the two sides, was sure the military was ready for serious political negotiations and prepared to cooperate with the National League for Democracy.
Twelve months later, these hopes appear to have been dashed. Instead of progress, the two sides have slipped into a war of words that is being fought through press conferences and press releases.
Only a few days ago, Ms Suu Kyi went on the offensive and told journalists at a press briefing at the NLD headquarters: ``I have come to the conclusion that the SPDC [State Peace Development Council] is not interested in national reconciliation.''
Throughout the past year, the opposition leader has appealed to the generals to open concrete talks and stated that she and the NLD were prepared to cooperate with the army. She has told them repeatedly that the opposition does not see the military as the enemy.
``We do not want to be the enemy,'' she recently told the Bangkok Post in Rangoon. ``We are in opposition to each other at the moment but we should work together for the sake of the country, and we certainly bear no grudges against them. We are not out for vengeance. We want to reach the kind of settlement which will be beneficial to everybody, including the members of the military.''
But the generals have so far rebuffed all the opposition overtures. ``It's more than time to proceed from the confidence-building stage to full cooperation, especially in the humanitarian area.,'' Ms Suu Kyi said two weeks ago. ``The SPDC has shown that it is not keen to cooperate with us in matters of humanitarian aid.''
Colonel Hla Min, the military government spokesman, for his part, insists ``the government actively welcomes meaningful and constructive suggestions from all its citizens in all areas of national development, particularly in education, health-care and economic development''.
Neither side seems able to take the initiative. The UN envoy's insistence that Burma's political reform must be a home-grown process has also waned over the past year.
``Neither side is able to talk directly to the other,'' a senior Western diplomat involved in Burma said. ``And that is the role Mr Razali can play.'' But Burma's military rulers have continually rebuffed the envoy's repeated requests over the last three months to return to Rangoon to help restart the talks. He usually visits Burma every three months or so, but he has been denied access to Rangoon for more than six months. In fact, it looks as though he will not be allowed back until early June at the earliest.
The process of national reconciliation has clearly ground to a halt. Burma's military leaders seem keen to drag the process out as long as possible instead of talking to Ms Suu Kyi.
Faced with increased international pressure the United States is in the process of extending sanctions and banning all textile imports from Burma, and the European Union has adopted tougher measures which will be implemented automatically in six months time if there is no progress in the dialogue process Burma's top generals are looking to their neighbours for support.
Senior General Than Shwe, Burma's top leader, has been busy visiting as many countries around the region as he can. In the past six months, he has visited Bangladesh, China, Vietnam and Thailand. He's currently on a state visit to Laos. Other senior ministers, including intelligence chief General Khin Nyunt and Foreign Minister Win Aung, have also been active whipping up support for the regime. Earlier this year, Win Aung made an historic trip to India.
Burma's leaders have long told Western government ministers and diplomats that they did not fear Western-led sanctions as they expected to get all the trade, investment and aid they needed from their neighbours. The reality, of course, is that this is not forthcoming. In the last twelve months, the only Asean investment was the Malaysian petroleum giant Petronas' buy-out of the British company Premier Oil's interests in Burma. Although Bangladesh and India have some commercial interests in Burma, the only significant regional investor in the country is China.
It is time Asean governments reassessed their uncritical support for Rangoon. Privately, United Nations officers say their credibility will be on the line if they continue to put their heads in the sand.
But even after meeting Mr Razali last week in Bangkok, Thai Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai continued to tell local journalists that the dialogue process had not stalled and that Bangkok fully supported Burma's national reconciliation process. But Thai officials privately concede that the government is fully aware that there are no talks between the two sides and that the whole process is in deep trouble.
Asean countries have tried to avoid thinking about Burma. ``It's too divisive,'' one senior Asean diplomat said. ``Countries like Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam and Brunei will not criticise Myanmar [Burma] or allow pressure to be brought to bear on issues like human rights and democratic reform.''There currently is no real incentive for the other Asean countries to take the initiative. But they must change soon.
Burma will take over the presidency of Asean in 2006 and the annual summit will be held in Rangoon. ``It will highly embarrassing for Asean to be led by one of the world's remaining military dictatorships,'' said a senior UN official privately in New York.
But if the 12 months since Ms Suu Kyi was freed are any indication, it is still going to be years before Burma gets the democratic reform most Burmese people crave. Asean leaders could help speed that process up if privately, at two-way and multilateral meetings, they began to put real pressure on Burma's generals to implement economic and political reform.