It now seems certain Burma's political reform process has stalled. The military regime might still be making some concessions to the opposition, but diplomats in Rangoon believe the hardline top military leader, Senior General Than Shwe, has taken control of the national reconciliation process and more moderate Prime Minister Khin Nyunt has been forced to take a back seat.
The regime earlier this week allowed the National League for Democracy's full central executive committee to meet together with Aung San Suu Kyi at her home, but the chances of the pro-democracy leader being released soon remain slim.
''We are not expecting Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's release any time soon,'' U Lwin, the National League for Democracy spokesman, told the Bangkok Post. ''Although we are always hopeful.''
Rangoon's withdrawal from the international forum on Burma known as the Bangkok Process, originally scheduled to begin its second rounds of talks in Bangkok today, is a significant sign the military regime's ''road map'' to democracy is facing major problems. It almost certainly signals a delay in the expected release of Ms Suu Kyi from house arrest.
Officially the Burmese position on withdrawing from the Bangkok meeting is because it is too close to the start of the National Convention called to draft a constitution, scheduled for May 17.
''Burma's reluctance to face the international community at this stage probably means that there has been a hiccup in the preparations for the National Convention,'' said a Rangoon-based diplomat. It may also mean the regime intends to proceed with drafting a new constitution without the opposition leader and the National League for Democracy, or NLD.
The regime is waiting for the NLD to decide whether it is going to participate in the National Convention. Invitations have already been sent out to some 30 MPs, including two of the party's top leaders who were released recently from prison, Aung Shwe and spokesman U Lwin. But the other two leaders, Ms Suu Kyi and Tin Oo have not been invited. They are still under house arrest.
''The party cannot decide anything on the NLD's participation in the National Convention until the central executive committee is allowed to meet to discuss it,'' U Lwin said on the eve of their meeting on Tuesday. The central executive committee's discussion ended inconclusively.
''We will be discussing this issue further,'' U Lwin said. ''And we expect to meet again within the next few days to make a final decision.''
The NLD has to decide within the next two weeks whether it will attend the National Convention. All convention participants have to register personally at the convention centre outside Rangoon by May 15. ''As long as free debate and discussion is allowed at the National Convention, the NLD could participate,'' U Lwin said. ''The six key principles could then be discussed at the convention.''
In the meantime, Ms Suu Kyi is expected to remain under house arrest at least until the NLD's position on the National Convention is clarified. ''It is even possible that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi won't be released till days before the National Convention is due to convene,'' a western Rangoon-based diplomat said.
There are growing signs in Rangoon that Burma's military leaders now intend to proceed with their plans to draw up a new constitution without Ms Suu Kyi and the NLD. This has always been an option in the minds of the military leaders.
''The National Convention will go ahead with or without Aung San Suu Kyi,'' a senior military intelligence officer said earlier this year.
As far as Burma's neighbours and Asian allies are concerned, the ball is now in the court of the NLD. ''They need to be more realistic and practical in their approach, and not simply stand on their principles,'' a senior Japanese diplomat said.
The Chinese position is similar and Beijing says privately that it is up to the opposition to make the concessions at this stage. ''If Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD do not agree to participate in the National Convention then Beijing will not be able to do anything to help them,'' a Chinese government official said privately.
How quickly the national reconciliation process proceeds and whether Ms Suu Kyi is part of it depends largely on what Burma's top three generals decide. Snr Gen Than Shwe sees no need to speed up the process and personally detests Ms Suu Kyi. General Khin Nyunt accepts the need for the national reconciliation process to include the pro-democracy parties.
Gen Khin Nyunt's future depends on the National Convention being a success. But that depends on Snr Gen Than Shwe. At the moment the political situation in Rangoon is very fluid and nothing is certain.