No News Is Bad News
The military junta's lack of transparency over talks with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi could test international patience
By Bertil Lintner/BANGKOK
Far Eastern Economic Review-Issue cover-dated August 02, 2001
IT'S SAID THAT NO NEWS is good news, but that adage could become cold comfort for Burma's ruling junta. While the generals, apparently acting under strong international pressure, resumed talks late last year with pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, they have given no indication of how far the reconciliation process has really moved, if at all.
When Suu Kyi, leader of the opposition National League for Democracy, failed to show up for Martyr's Day ceremonies in Rangoon on July 19 marking the anniversary of the assassination in 1947 of her father, independence hero Aung San, speculation was rife that the talks had collapsed.
A Western diplomat, however, says the process continues and that she was absent from the ceremony by choice because "she wanted to show that her movements won't be dictated" by the military government, which is known as the State Peace and Development Council, or SPDC.
But while there may still be a process there appears to have been very little progress, and political analysts say the ball is now very much in the generals' court. "The key thing is whether at any stage there will be a public announcement about the talks," says the Western diplomat.
There is no sign of that at the moment and time is running out for the generals. Says the Western diplomat: "If no real political progress can be noticed before October, or not even an announcement a year after the first talks were held, the international community will run out of patience."
That could include stronger United Nations resolutions condemning human-rights abuses and urging democratization, and perhaps even tougher economic sanctions. The United States Senate, for example, is due to decide soon on whether or not to ban garment imports from Burma on the grounds of alleged forced labour and child labour in the industry. Concrete signs of progress in the junta-Suu Kyi talks could have a bearing on that decision, say analysts.
Western and Asian diplomats in Burma and Thailand reject recent regional press reports about an imminent breakthrough and the possibility of a national coalition government between the generals and the NLD as wishful thinking. And Aung Zaw, a prominent opposition Burmese journalist in exile in Thailand and editor of the Irrawaddy magazine, dismisses the talks with Suu Kyi as "an example of diplomatic skills and a PR offensive staged by the junta." By pretending that some "very delicate" talks are under way, the junta has been able to stave off international criticism, he says.
If there are some kind of talks, what are the two sides focusing on and why the secrecy? Suu Kyi has been held almost incommunicado since September last year. But, she did meet Malaysia's Razali Ismail, the UN special envoy to Burma, in January and June. She also received a delegation from the European Union in January and held private talks in April with Paulo Sergio Pinheiro, a Brazilian political scientist who had just been appointed UN special rapporteur on human rights in Burma.
None have disclosed much about their discussions with Suu Kyi and even less has been leaked about her talks with the military government. Foreign diplomats in Rangoon say that the SPDC most likely began talking to Suu Kyi because of pressure from the UN and member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. But they reckon there was no special agenda for the talks.
The sources also say Suu Kyi has pressed hard for the release of NLD supporters who are serving long prison sentences. According to Aung Zaw, she presented a list of 200 political prisoners, mainly the sick and elderly. She has also asked the authorities to let the NLD reopen its offices around the country, most of which were shut down last year.She's had some limited success. About 150 prisoners--not necessarily those on her purported list--have been released since October.
These include San San Nwe, a 56-year old journalist arrested in 1994 and sentenced to 10 years in jail for giving "false news" to foreign correspondents. She was freed on July 18. Others recently released were Suu Kyi's cousin and former aide, Aye Win, whose brother, Sein Win, leads an opposition government-in-exile, and popular comedians Pa Pa Lay and Lu Zaw. Known as The Moustache Brothers, the two were arrested in 1996 for making fun of the government at public NLD gatherings. A small number of NLD offices have also been reopened in Rangoon and elsewhere.
But, as the Western diplomat points out, "the names, not the numbers of people who have been released, are impressive." Amnesty International says there are still some 1,800 political prisoners languishing in prisons around Burma, while Suu Kyi herself remains under de facto house arrest.
Meanwhile, Suu Kyi must be acutely aware that the first time she held talks with the generals, in 1994, the negotiations were stopped when she issued a statement reaffirming her commitment to democracy and dismissing rumours that she was about to make a deal with the government.
That statement was smuggled out of the country, and the government accused her of breaking her promise not to disclose what was being discussed. Hence the secrecy this time, says a Rangoon resident: "If she said anything unilaterally, her meetings with junta representatives would stop, and there would be no more releases of political prisoners."