Foreseeing Burma's political future is uneasy and gloomy. But if one is optimistic that positive ''concrete results'' can take place in the military-ruled country, he or she might need a visit to a mental health specialist. UN Under Secretary-General for Political Affairs Ibrahim Gambari, who had a rare chance to visit with the country's top leaders and detained Nobel peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, doesn't appear to be optimistic in achieving ''concrete results'', a standard he said he hoped to achieve during his recent visit to Burma.
After his trip, he told reporters that it was hard bargaining with Burmese leaders. Hard bargaining? In fact, the diplomat was not given any chance to bargain for any political breakthrough let alone the release of Daw Suu Kyi.
The Nigerian diplomat requested to check in at the Sedona Hotel in downtown Rangoon, but the regime put him in a government guest house. His schedule was tightly controlled by officials. Mr Gambari reportedly asked that his meeting with Daw Suu Kyi take place in her lakeside house but the regime refused.
The regime clearly wanted to exploit his visit. Mr Gambari observed the ongoing National Convention at the invitation of the regime. He went there and met ethnic leaders. Observers know the regime is clever at playing games with visiting UN officials. Mr Gambari was not the first.
Yozo Yokota, Burma's first special rapporteur on human rights in Burma after the 1988 military crackdown, succeeded in gaining access to Burma's political prisoners. But one of his visits was exploited as he was invited to cut a ribbon at a regime event. The next day, Mr Yokota's photo was displayed with jovial generals in state-run newspapers.
Now reports from Rangoon say the regime extended an invitation to Mr Gambari for a third visit. But if there are no tangible results from the visit he is unlikely to visit Burma again. He will only look foolish.
It won't matter if it's Mr Gambari or his boss Kofi Annan who comes to Burma to press for reform.
The message from Burma's military regime is loud and clear: ''We will stay the course.''
A veteran journalist who also followed Mr Gambari's visit in Rangoon said, ''The UN will come and go, but Burma remains unchanged. They [military leaders] will go along with their road map, they will stick to their guns. Dialogue [with Suu Kyi] is out of the question.''
He sarcastically added, ''Everything is fine here. We don't even have a humanitarian crisis... only 'the Lady' is creating trouble,'' referring to Daw Suu Kyi.
Indeed, it seems Senior General Than Shwe and his regime have plenty of important work and projects ahead. On Monday, The New Light of Myanmar, the regime's official mouthpiece, reported in a front-page story that a new pagoda will be built in the new capital, Naypyidaw.
The elaborate ceremony to begin construction work for Uppatasanti, or ''Peace Pagoda'', was held in Naypyidaw with senior military leaders, including Gen Than Shwe and many monks.
Like previous leaders and many of Burma's former kings, Than Shwe is now building an important pagoda. This is a new project aside from building ''a modern nation with flourishing, disciplined democracy''.
More important, Gen Than Shwe has a big family that requires looking after. The senior general has five daughters and two sons and favourite grandsons. A lavish wedding in July of one of his daughters outraged average citizens and drew headlines around the region and in the West.
Without doubt, Gen Than Shwe will stay the course. During his rule, he has given the green light for several purges, including his former boss, Gen Ne Win, who spent his last days as a prisoner in his own house.
Gen Than Shwe knows there may be a payback time. Thus, if he relinquishes power, he will make sure all his family members are safe and sound. Or he never will. As Gen Than Shwe continues to cling to power, safety _ his safety _ comes first in Burmese politics.