A senior UN official has arrived in Rangoon to explore ways the international organisation can help the government introduce political reforms and to press for the release of Aung San Suu Kyi. The opposition leader has been in isolated detention now for nearly three years. The UN's Under-Secretary for Political Affairs, Ibrahim Gambari, is to spend three days in Burma meeting the country's top leaders and representatives of the pro-democracy parties and ethnic groups. He is also expected to meet the regime's top man, Senior General Than Shwe. He may even be discussing a possible future visit to Burma by Secretary-General Kofi Annan.
Mr Gambari has requested a meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi, who is currently under house arrest at her lake-side residence in Rangoon. But he is unlikely to be allowed to see her. The Nobel Peace laureate is spending her third term under house arrest. For the last two years she has been in virtual isolation; only her doctor has been allowed to see her. He has been given sporadic access, and often has not been allowed to see her for months. But diplomats in Rangoon believe she is still in good health.
Mr Gambari is the most senior UN official to visit Burma since the army seized power nearly 18 years ago. He will be accompanied by the head of the Asia division, Michael Williams, who was previously a senior adviser to the British foreign secretary, Jack Straw.
The trip is part of the UN's latest, desperate attempts to re-establish a dialogue with the regime. For more than two years now the military junta has refused to allow the UN's two envoys for Burma _ the secretary-general's special envoy Razali Ismail and the rapporteur for human rights in Burma Paulo Sergio Pinheiro _ to visit the country. Mr Razali resigned earlier this year in frustration and a successor is yet to be appointed.
Since the middle of last year, top UN officials, including Mr Annan, have been discussing the organisation's strategy towards Burma in the hope of finding a new formula that might encourage the regime to listen to the international community's calls for change.
The latest meeting, with Mr Gambari at the helm, was held in the first week of April at which it was decided a secret mission to Burma to talk directly to the generals be undertaken. So secret was the planned visit that the human rights rapporteur Professor Pinheiro was not supposed to know about it and had his head bitten off by a senior UN official when he enquired about it.
Mr Gambari and Mr Williams had been scheduled to visit Rangoon more than a fortnight ago, but it was scotched by Mr Annan at the last moment. There are significant differences of opinion within the UN over what can be achieved from this mission, and some are worried that such a high-level visit will only give the regime a publicity coup.
When the initial trip was postponed, the regime urged the UN to reconsider. Burmese Prime Minister Soe Win pressed them hard to come in the first week of May, and promised that the regime would arrange many meetings, including some with the opposition _ though Aung San Suu Kyi was not mentioned.
All the arrangements for the current trip are being made by the authorities so the itinerary is completely controlled by the regime. So important is the visit to Rangoon, the UN delegation is also being put up in a government guesthouse, instead of a hotel. The junta was so keen that the UN envoy visit Burma that the generals must have some hidden agenda of their own. Under increasing pressure from Asean, Burma's top general may want to deflect criticism from its Southeast Asian neighbours by receiving a senior UN envoy.
''Than Shwe and his generals may feel a visit from a senior UN official might help deflect attempts to have Burma discussed again at the Security Council,'' said an Asian diplomat based in Rangoon. The US has been urging the UN Security Council to review the situation in Burma as a matter of priority. Last December the Council held a closed-door briefing on Burma, at which Mr Gambari presented a very depressing view of the situation in Burma.
Behind the scenes, the Chinese have been urging the junta to do more to engage the international community, according to a government official in Beijing. The Chinese government has been dismayed by Rangoon's increased isolationism, especially the impending problems with the International Labour Organisation which is due to discuss the issue at its annual conference next month.
''We can certainly expect the unexpected,'' said a Western diplomat who has been involved in Burma for many years. It is difficult to predict what it might be, but there is no doubt that the regime wants to use the UN visit for its own ends, he added. So far, senior UN officials have refused to answer questions about the visit. But one of the key issues likely to be discussed during the trip is the replacement for the special envoy, Mr Razali. When Ali Alatas visited Burma last August Gen Than Shwe told him in no uncertain terms that Mr Razali was no longer welcome in Burma because the regime regarded him as dishonest and unreliable.
Mr Razali tells us one thing and then tells Mr Annan something totally different, Gen Than Shwe told Ali Alatas, according to a UN official who asked to remain anonymous.
But since his last visit to Rangoon in early March 2004, it had been clear that the UN envoy was not going to be allowed back. Gen Than Shwe believed Mr Razali was not impartial and was on the side of the lady _ a junta euphemism for Aung San Suu Kyi. Mr Razali was also seen as being too close to the former prime minister and intelligence chief, Gen Khin Nyunt, who was purged in October 2004 and later given a suspended 44-year jail sentence.
Senior UN officials are believed to be divided over the issue of Mr Razali's replacement. Mr Annan's key adviser, Mark Mallock-Brown who is leading the organisation's policy review, including on Burma, is reported to strongly support the appointment of the former Philippines president, Fidel Ramos. His nomination also has the solid support of Asean. Fidel Ramos is the perfect candidate, according to Asian diplomats: he's Asian, he's a former general and military commander, he's a former head of state and, best of all, he's several years senior to Gen Than Shwe.