Burma's political future is at a crucial crossroads. The dialogue between the generals and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi has stalled.The substantive political talks so badly needed if the country's political deadlock is to be broken seem further away than ever, and Burma's fragile reconciliation is now in danger of complete collapse.
``The secret talks between the NLD [National League for Democracy] and the military regime are on the verge of disintegrating, and the country's political deadlock that existed prior to Aung San Suu Kyi's detention two years ago is returning,'' a Western diplomat based in Rangoon said last week.
Burma's top leader, Senior General Than Shwe, is convinced that the military government did more than it needed to to accommodate the pro-democracy opposition when it released the NLD leader from house arrest last May.
He also believes Burma has slipped from international attention because of the Iraq conflict, and the United States in particular will have its hands full for some time and so is unlikely to be too concerned about the lack of progress towards political reform in Burma. He told a cabinet meeting in February that Burma was only fifth on the US hate list and so had little to worry about.
``It appears the generals are going to ignore international pressure for political change and stick it out in the hope that international attention is so preoccupied with the Iraq war that the world will have little appetite to pay Burma much attention in the coming months,'' a senior Asian diplomat said.
But there are signs that some of Burma's military leaders may be beginning to realise that their time is running out.
``Many key generals _ like the military intelligence chief General Khin Nyunt _ know the current political deadlock cannot continue much longer without dire consequences for themselves,'' a Western diplomat in Rangoon said.
Many of these military leaders saw the start of the dialogue process as a possible guarantee the army would have a long-term role in the country's political future. Now they realise the talks are falling apart, and with them their continued grasp on power.
Whereas Gen Than Shwe has no intention of starting concrete political talks with the opposition leader, many others are desperate for cooperation and dialogue. This rift between Burma's top general and other key members of the military government is likely to worsen in the coming months.
For Gen Than Shwe, the release of Ms Suu Kyi nearly a year ago was an end in itself, not a step towards direct negotiations with the opposition leader.
Military sources close to the general say he loathes the NLD leader, and refuses to even have her name mentioned in his presence.
``The very mention of her name throws the senior general into a fit,'' one senior Asian diplomat said. ``During the Asean [Association of Southeast Asian Nations] summit in Phnom Penh last month, Asian leaders like Japanese Prime Minister [Junichiro] Koizumi were advised not to mention her name during their bilateral meetings.'' Even the UN envoy Razali Ismail was reportedly asked to minimise the number of times he used her name during his meeting with the senior general on his last visit to Rangoon.
Since Ms Suu Kyi's release, Gen Than Shwe has exercised total power over all matters related to the dialogue and refuses to budge.
``It's quite clear now that the dialogue process is in crisis and only Than Shwe can save it,'' a senior United Nations official in New York said recently. Even the intelligence chief has no authority to act. He told the UN's Mr Ismail when he last visited Burma that he no longer had a mandate.
But it is also becoming clear that Gen Than Shwe's assumption of total political and military power, and the corresponding political stalemate, has created substantial unease amongst the country's other top generals. They have begun to recognise that the lack of political progress may endanger their long-term survival.
Gen Khin Nyunt has told international visitors to Rangoon, like the United Nations envoys Mr Razali and special rapporteur on human rights in Burma Paulo Pinheiro, repeatedly that he is powerless to influence the country's political future.
Gen Than Shwe has maintained his grasp on power by playing his subordinates off against each other. He is adept at using the personal animosity between General Maung Aye and Gen Khin Nyunt to his advantage.
``But in the last few months the two have begun to find a common cause to ease Than Shwe out of power,'' a Rangoon-based diplomat said. While a coup within the army is highly unlikely, the growing divisions between the country's top leaders over talks with the opposition leader may lead to changes of policy.
In the meantime, the ``reformers'' in the military grouped around Gen Khin Nyunt and the Foreign Ministry _ those who accept that the situation in Burma cannot continue and change is essential _ are telling their Asian counterparts and diplomats in Rangoon that Burma is facing a major crisis in coming months if there is no political progress in the dialogue process soon.
``Time is running out for us,'' one minister told diplomats in Rangoon recently. ``Our only chance of preventing the country collapsing into an economic and humanitarian crisis is progress in the dialogue process.'' That doesn't look likely as long as the senior general is calling all the shots.
The rift between the army and military intelligence is still under control for the time being. But that may not last much longer.
A recent sign of the friction clearly emerged during the abortive mission to Rangoon last month by the UN's Mr Pinheiro. He left the country after finding a listening device in the room at Insein jail in which he was interviewing political prisoners.``It was so inept that it was obviously meant to be discovered,'' he told the Bangkok Post after he'd flown out of Rangoon.
Some members of the cabinet and of military intelligence were shocked when the envoy informed them. ``They were clearly aghast that this incident had taken place, and certainly didn't know about it beforehand,'' a senior UN official said.
What makes this incident even more intriguing is the fact that the intelligence chief, Gen Khin Nyunt, had agreed in principle to Mr Pinheiro's proposals to conduct his own comprehensive assessment of alleged human rights violations in Shan state, where the army stands accused of systematically raping ethnic women.
The army would certainly not fare well from any investigation of alleged atrocities in the ethnic border areas. Its top leaders would surely oppose any independent investigation, let alone what could well be the most comprehensive human rights investigation into the army's human rights conduct since an International Labour Organisation report two years ago.
Diplomats in Rangoon believe the army was behind the amateurish bugging attempt, which may have been intended to put an end to the planned investigation. At the very least it reveals the deep-rooted divisions within the military over the need for political reform.