Analysis: Burma envoy's optimism tested

By Larry Jagan - BBC Burma analyst in Rangoon
source : BBC (26-04-02)

The UN envoy to Burma, Razali Ismail, seems to be more optimistic than he has ever been after any of his other diplomatic missions to the country.

During his four-day visit, Mr Razali met top government ministers, key opposition leaders - including Aung San Suu Kyi, who is still under house arrest - and representatives of many of the country's ethnic groups.

But it was his final meeting with Burma's top three leaders - General Than Shwe, General Maung Aye and Lieutenant Khin Nyunt - which is being seen as most significant. Mr Razali told Burmese businessmen that this was his first substantial meeting with General Than Shwe during his visits to Burma, although he had met him in Kuala Lumpur last year.

'No divisions'

Since the discovery in March of an alleged coup plot by family members of the former dictator Ne Win, General Than Shwe has clearly strengthened his position as the country's undisputed leader. He is the only one in the military government who has the power to authorise the developments the UN envoy hopes for.

The fact that the country's second most powerful man, General Maung Aye, was present is also seen as significant. He is regarded as the hardliner in the triumvirate and opposed to the talks with Aung San Suu Kyi.

Burmese government sources say the general was called back a few hours early from his first official visit to Thailand to attend the meeting with Mr Razali. Analysts believe this was to show the international community that there is no division within the army over political reform.

They say that his presence will also prevent him from later disassociating himself from any major decision the Burmese authorities make in response to Mr Razali's presentation.

Great expectations

Everyone now expects the significant break-through to be the unconditional release of Aung San Suu Kyi. This is what the international community has been demanding, and shortly before Mr Razali arrived in Rangoon, both the UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and Malaysia's Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad both wrote personally to General Than Shwe urging him to find an active political role for Aung San Suu Kyi.

UN officials have hinted that this would only be part of the development. "Aung San Suu Kyi's release would signal the start of more meaningful political talks and co-operation," said one official.

The opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) is understandably ecstatic at the prospect of their leader being released soon. But NLD leaders say just freeing her is not sufficient.

"Even more important that Daw Suu's release, is a meeting with General Than Shwe before that happens," the NLD spokesman U Lwin told the BBC.

Looking forward

It is far too early to be talking about the formation of a transitional government. "The NLD and the international community must offer the generals help and support in developing a transitional process that will lead to democracy," says an Asian diplomat in Rangoon.

Mr Razali has constantly said change in Burma must be step by step. Apart from Aung San Suu Kyi's release, the next step must be the NLD and the military finding ways of co-operating in practice.

One idea that the UN envoy has been proposing to both sides is for the NLD and the military to form joint committees to carry out administrative functions. These might be tried in the two key areas of concern - the economy and humanitarian aid. There is no doubt that Burma is facing a massive humanitarian crisis. This is something which is worrying Aung San Suu Kyi and her party. It should be the first priority of a joint committee, according to senior NLD sources.

Analysts believe this would not only be the next step in the process of confidence and trust building between the two sides, but could provide a good model for the rest of the transitional process.

While Rangoon is awash with expectations, diplomats here are more cautious. They fear that everyone is being carried away with wishful thinking rather than reality. "We've been here before," says a Rangoon-based Western diplomat who did not want to be identified. "Promises are no longer sufficient, it's now time for action."