Burma's oppressive military junta appears to have a bigger problem on its hands than anyone realized. What started as relatively small-scale, informal protests over gas prices have turned into a large and growing protest by the country's highly respected Buddhist monks. And now the monks and Burma's political pro-democracy movement are converging, with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi emerging from house arrest to greet the monks at the gate of her home on Saturday. Reform has proved elusive in the past, but hopefully its time is arriving. The international community needs to show support for the protesters now.
It all comes at a bad time for the junta. The military leadership is sick and stagnant. The current junta leader, Senior General Than Shwe, is 74 and in poor health, a situation that suggests he might soon hand over power. His prime minister is in no better shape and has been temporarily replaced. The new capital in which both leaders sit, Naypyitaw, is a massive white elephant in the middle of nowhere. The city's continuing construction and maintenance drain the nation's coffers and anger the state apparatus, who resent moving there.
The project further alienates the people, who see no benefit whatsoever as their country sinks into even greater misery. The regime's excesses and fiscal mismanagement have forced drastic cuts in expensive subsidies for fuel and energy, leading to a 500% increase in the price of cooking gas. These price rises have triggered the wave of protests across many Burmese cities.
The junta's frequently touted National Constitutional Convention, the first of the military's "seven steps to democracy," concluded in August after 14 years. With Ms. Suu Kyi's political party boycotting the convention, and the terms of debate dictated by the regime, the convention is widely considered a fraud. The constitutional roadmap it prepared cements the military's role in government and the economy. Ethnic groups that once fought against junta forces are disappointed by the document, which fails to provide the minority rights and decentralized authority they were promised.
Nor has this been a good year for the junta internationally. In a remarkable step, leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, after years of inaction on Burma, openly expressed their unhappiness that the junta was impeding regional integration and the drafting of an Asean charter including human rights protections. China and India, Burma's two main trading partners, are under increasing pressure from the U.S., Europe and many non-governmental organizations for supporting the regime. The U.N. Security Council had its first meeting on the regional dangers emanating from Burma's internal situation, noting among other things that Burma's public health crisis is spreading across its borders, and that the country is a major source of drug and human trafficking. The International Committee of the Red Cross uncharacteristically shed its long-standing principle of confidentiality and publicly blasted the government about conditions in Burma.
Change within the military remains the most likely way of securing some political change in Burma in any reasonable time-frame. The Burmese military is an opaque institution, and it is hard to know what is happening inside the military at this important juncture. Their ongoing crackdown -- which may well escalate -- reflects fear that an uprising like the popular explosion of 1988 could develop. But there also is some reason to hope that the public unrest might generate serious questioning within elements of the military about their dismal leadership, Burma's failing economy, and a possible leadership transition. We can only speculate.
Meantime, for many years now external pressures from other governments and human rights groups have had little political influence on the Burmese military. But that may be starting to change. The information technology revolution is slowly yet steadily reaching Burma, despite government restrictions, with all that that implies for access to information, ideas and ease of communication.
Now is the time for Asean and Western countries to put increased pressure on China. The goal should not be to threaten the success of the Olympics or cut China's trade with Burma, but rather to urge Beijing to more aggressively send the message to Burma's leaders that they must deal better with their people and be responsive to international concerns. India needs to do the same. New Delhi can be usefully reminded that nuclear deals come with some price and that India can do a better job of exerting positive influence in its neighborhood with little cost to itself.
The U.N. needs to become more involved than merely sending the Secretary General's special representative to Rangoon. The Security Council should urgently review the Burmese situation, and the upcoming General Assembly should spend a day discussing the humanitarian, political and regional security aspects of the problem that is Burma. Similarly, Asean should be encouraged to hold an emergency session on Burma.
Almost anything would be better than the status quo. As it stands, the world is divided on dealing with Burma and collective efforts to help promote change are unimpressive. But as Burma's monks and other protestors risk life and limb by marching against their overlords we cannot simply let this moment slip by. The nonviolent resistance of Burmese inside and outside Burma to the brutal military regime cries out for support, and world leaders must at least vigorously stand with the Burmese people and echo their call for change. If they do not respond to the world's truly non-violent political struggles, they send the message that the world responds only to violence.
Mr. Abramowitz is a senior fellow at the Century Foundation, and former U.S. Ambassador to Thailand. Mr. Kolieb is a research associate at the Century Foundation.