Thailand has missed a golden opportunity to contribute to the democratisation process in Burma. In fact, Bangkok has been sidelined. As ongoing political uncertainties put Thaksin Shinawatra's future in doubt, other countries in Asean and beyond are taking the lead to push for positive change across our western border.
One immediate effect will be the diminishing of Thailand's notorious support of the Burmese junta. When he came to power Thaksin shifted the international attention on Burma and in the process tried to make the issue a bilateral one, foolishly believing that this could influence the junta to open up.
Since 2001 this flawed policy has been pursued blindly and vigorously due to Thaksin's personal preference and strong political foundation. But as he struggles to stay relevant to Thai politics these days, Burmese policy has returned - at least for now - to the domain of the foreign ministry.
Early last month, Thai-Burma ties were the subject of a heated brainstorming session among officials at the director-general level. Their task was to discuss and identify what necessary changes, if possible, could be made to the current Thai position, which was described as too pro-Burma. The question that immediately came to mind was, why now?
Two concerns were expressed. One was directly linked to the effect Thailand's Burmese policy has on our international reputation and the bid for the United Nation's top position. The other was the level of support, either verbal or tangible, to be given to Burma.
The first point has proven to be a nightmare. As the race to find Kofi Annan's successor draws near, closer scrutiny of candidates' qualifications and views on global issues are inevitable. In the case of Thailand's candidate, the Burmese issue stands out like a protruding nail. Worse still, former foreign minister Surakiart Sathirathai was closely associated with Thaksin's Burmese policy. In private conversation he has expressed views and assessments that differed significantly from official policy, but he has been unable to state these views publicly.
On the level of support, senior officials were quite succinct - Thailand's unwavering backing of the regime is so hazardous that a more benign approach is essential. As Thaksin's chances of political survival near zero, the officials hope to initiate subtle changes in Burma policy to create a better rapport with their counterparts in the region and international community.
Since the failure of the Bangkok process, Thailand has gradually lost its voice and influence on the overall method for dealing with Burma. Bangkok has been further isolated by changes in Rangoon's leadership. It does not have close ties with the junta's new leaders. Most recently, Thaksin's ignorance about the situation in Burma has become quite apparent.
At the Kuala Lumpur summit in December, he criticised Burma for not telling Thailand and Asean that its new capital would be moved from Rangoon to Pyinmana. He even suggested that Thailand should no longer be Burma's spokesperson. What he did not say was that Thailand had already begun construction of a new embassy in Rangoon.
Last week, he made another foolish gaff comparing Thai and Burmese elections. He urged the major opposition party, the Democrats, to consult imprisoned Aung San Suu Kyi on the imperative of participating in elections. While the Nobel laureate Suu Kyi was being honoured last week by organisations promoting human rights and liberty in the US and EU--the Eleanor Roosevelt Award for Human Rights and Olof Palme Prize--Thaksin was using her to poke fun at the opposition.
Suu Kyi won the May 1990 polls by a landslide, but the junta's leaders refused to honour the result and arrest her instead. She repeatedly asked the junta to honour the polls but to no avail. The international community has kept on pressing Burma to honour the vote.
During the Cambodian conflict (1978-1992), as a frontline state, Thailand led Asean for nearly two decades in the international arena. Asean members accepted Thailand's leading role because of the clarity of its policy to push foreign occupation out of Cambodia. Of course, there were also times of dissension. In 1980, for example, Indonesia and Malaysia broke ranks with Asean to announce the Kuantan Principle, which recognised Vietnam's security interests in regard to China.
If Thai policy towards Burma had resembled the stand on the Cambodian conflict, individual Asean countries, especially core Asean members, would not be pursuing their own. They would not challenge Thailand's lead as a frontline state. Instead, the absence of leadership from Bangkok has prompted Asean MPs and civil society to form a caucus on Burma to fill the void. Now this support has proliferated and transformed into official platforms.
Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has already seized the moment knowing full well that the Burmese situation, if left unattended, can be a threat to regional and even international security and stability.
Now Jakarta is taking the lead in engaging Burma. It will be the first time that Indonesia has regained its diplomatic confidence in initiating policies and measures to break the Burmese deadlock. For decades, the Rangoon junta had long been hoping to emulate Indonesia under Suharto's dictatorial rule.
Singapore's Foreign Minister George Yeo has recently warned that Asean might have to downgrade its relations with Burma if the regime does not consult the grouping on the democratisation process. Progress in Asean should not be delayed by Burma's domestic development, he added.
As some Asean countries become bolder, the United States and the European Union are stepping up their efforts to promote change in Burma. The Bush administration has not only hardened its position on Burma, it has also tried to convince major powers - including China, India and Japan - to do more to democratise the country.
Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian Affairs Christopher Hill has said that Burma's roadmap was inadequate. In the weeks to come, the US is leading an effort to place the Burmese issue on the UN Security Council's agenda.
Once again, with regional and global communities focusing on the Burmese crisis, Thailand's position is increasingly looking like a charade. New policy on Burma supporting international solidarity is necessary to regain the country's eroding influence.
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