Following military-ruled Burma’s failure to inform ASEAN of virtually anything that goes on within its borders – including the relocation of its capital – it is no secret that ASEAN is fed up with its rogue member.
After years of fruitless attempts by Thailand to engage with its reclusive neighbor and persuade it to initiate democratic reforms, the bloc has lost patience not only with the junta but with Thailand as well.
Two weeks ago at its leaders’ summit in Kuala Lumpur, ASEAN turned on Burma, calling for it to stop embarrassing the grouping with its seemingly empty promise to follow a “roadmap to democracy” and release detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
Perhaps more significant, analysts say, was the decision by Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines and Indonesia to oppose Thailand’s policy of constructive engagement and take the lead in pushing Burma to clean up its act.
“The decision to actively stimulate the political process by four other countries shows that Thailand has really missed the boat,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor of international relations at Chulalongkorn University.
“The government’s Burma [Myanmar] policy has been a complete failure. There has been constructive engagement to promote the democratic process for years, but it has become evident that this just doesn’t work.”
Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has come under fire for his lenient approach to Burma, which critics say is aimed at promoting cozy ties to benefit Thai business interests.
Thitinan said Thaksin’s preoccupation with taking the lead role in the Indochina cooperative grouping ACMECS has left him out of touch with ASEAN.
“He has put all his eggs in the ACMECS basket and has fallen behind with ASEAN,” he said. “Thaksin wants to be a key player in promoting change in Burma, but it is too late for that.
“He has squandered that chance by pursuing a misguided and ultimately failed policy, and the initiative is now being taken up by the other ASEAN members.” Thaksin is now caught in an awkward position, pressured by ASEAN because of his Burma policy but at risk of destabilizing ACMECS if he turns up the heat on Rangoon, analysts say.
Thitinan said last week’s criticism of Burma’s generals by Thaksin and Deputy Prime Minister Surakiart Sathirathai was “too little, too late.”
“This is most disingenuous because for a long time they pursued a completely different tactic,” he said. “Now they are trying to make a U-turn and that signifies the failure of that policy, which is an embarrassment and a shame on the Thai people.”
Thaksin last week offered to host the second round of the ill-fated Bangkok Process aimed at bringing democracy to Burma, but the junta has yet to respond.
The talks were abandoned last year after only one round when Burma said it was too busy focusing on its “roadmap” to attend the meeting of 15 countries.
Democrat MP and former deputy foreign minister Sukhumbhand Pari-batra said the stalled talks were a sign of Thailand’s failed policy on Burma and it was time for the government to admit its mistakes and forget engaging with the junta.
“The Bangkok Process was a joke,” he said in an interview. “Its so-called achievement was that Myanmar would report on their progress in democratic reform, but they never even showed up. As this dialogue failed to take off, it may be ill-advised to carry on with it.”
Sukhumbhand criticized the government for continuing to promote its business interests in Burma and said that Thailand had alienated itself from ASEAN because it was too focused on two-way relationships instead of multilateral ties.
“This government is only interested in bilateral diplomacy,” he said. “ACMECS is just bilateral cooperation subsumed under a multilateral framework involving Thai assistance to Myanmar. “The relationship with Myanmar is just moving us away from the only multilateral framework in this region, and that’s ASEAN,” he added.
Labeled an “outpost of tyranny” by Washington and isolated by economic sanctions as a result of its poor human rights record, Burma has made life increasingly difficult for ASEAN since becoming a member in 1997.
Rangoon’s decision to skip its turn chairing the grouping next year to focus on its transition to democracy was hailed as a step in the right direction, although after extending Suu Kyi’s house arrest and failing to announce its decision to move its capital 600km north to Pyinmana, ASEAN’s frustrations have reached a boiling point.
“ASEAN is clearly tired of fighting for Myanmar and they no longer want to put up with this,” a Bangkok-based foreign diplomat said.
“From ASEAN’s standpoint, the situation with Myanmar is that in order for us to help you, you have to help yourself.”
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