Thailand is pushing ahead with its initiative to bring democratic change to Burma by pursuing discussions on a roadmap to national reconciliation and democracy, but where this political journey leads to remains unclear.
Last week, Thai Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai discussed his ideas for this roadmap with his Burmese counterpart Win Aung in Bangkok. Win Aung said he would take the Thai ideas back to Rangoon for further discussion.
Since Thai officials met with Myanmar Deputy Foreign Minister Khin Maung Win, who visited Bangkok as a special envoy for General Than Shwe recently, Surakiart has been canvassing vigorously for support from countries in Asia and Europe that have expressed interest in helping Burma implement democratic reform.
Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has said that Thailand was taking the initiative because the crisis in Burma was more than Rangoon could handle, and that it would be easier for it to deal with friendly neighbors than for the matter to be brought before the United Nations Security Council.
"We are doing what we are doing now because we are concerned about Burma. We are not pressuring Burma or interfering with its internal affairs," he said. "Since we are Burma's close neighbor, we should initiate something that leads to the international community's acceptance of developments in Burma."
Under its vision for this roadmap, Thailand wants the Burmese regime to propose a series of concrete and practical steps toward democratization. As part of this process, the Thai government would then host a meeting of interested parties that would be tasked with fleshing out the Burma roadmap.
But where this will lead - if it leads anywhere - remains unclear.
To date, the Thai idea of this roadmap, floated in the wake of the detention of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, seems rather vague. "It's really only a concept that still needs to be fleshed out," said a senior Thai Foreign Ministry source.
"It's a working idea that has to be refined before it gets seriously unveiled," added a senior Thai diplomat.
European leaders who discussed with Surakiart at various bilateral meetings during the Asia-Europe Meeting in Bali last month all seemed to have been given varying versions of it. "It's not really a roadmap as such," a senior European official at the Bali meeting said in an interview, "but 10 or 12 proposed steps which would help the Burmese military government to move towards full democracy within the next few years."
For all of the talk about the Thai roadmap, however, many foreign governments and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), of which Burma is a member, believe that the first step on any roadmap must be the release of Suu Kyi.
For more than two months, she has been held under what the government calls protective custody after a violent attack on her and her supporters in northern Burma. That attack has been blamed on pro-Rangoon elements.
"ASEAN and the Thai government have called for Aung San Suu Kyi's immediate release, and we would like to see steps taken that would move towards her release," Surakiart said in Bali last month. "The recent release of more than 91 political prisoners is a good signal and if these steps can be spelt out as part of the roadmap as to how and when she would be released that would be very helpful."
But UN special envoy Razali Ismail, who helped broker the original talks between Suu Kyi and the generals, has also been very clear: there can be no dialogue process when one of the key partners is under detention.
Privately, ASEAN leaders have made it clear to Rangoon that they expected Suu Kyi to have already been released by now.
Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has warned the generals that if nothing happens soon, ASEAN will have to consider expelling Burma - although this would only be done as a last resort.
At the ASEAN meeting of foreign ministers in Phnom Penh in mid-June, Burma was asked to give them a firm date for Suu Kyi's release. This was reiterated by Indonesian Foreign Minister Hassan Wirajuda last month during Win Aung's visit to Jakarta.
Burma continues to ask its Asian allies to be patient. "We need some breathing space," Win Aung told his Indonesian hosts.
But international pressure may be having an impact on Burma's generals. Last week, the military authorities allowed the International Red Cross in Rangoon to visit Suu Kyi in the guesthouse in which she is being detained.
Thai officials say they see the roadmap as having a course of steps - after the release of Aung San Suu Kyi - which would lead to Burma becoming a fully fledged democracy before 2006, when Rangoon takes over the chairmanship of ASEAN.
The other steps would include Thailand hosting an international forum, which in the words of the Thai foreign minister would "brainstorm" with representatives of the Burmese military government on economic liberalization, increasing political freedom, drawing up a constitution and then holding elections within the next two years or so.
In truth, there is very little new in this framework that Razali has not already been discussing in detail with the three main players in Burma - the military, the democratic opposition and the ethnic minorities. But what is new is the Thai proposal to host an international forum on Burma. "This would be a senior officials meeting rather than a ministerial one," said the Thai Foreign Ministry spokesman, Sihasak Phuangketkeow.
Originally, it was to be to include representatives of ASEAN, China, Japan and Europe. The United States did not seem to be on the original invitation list.
But in the course of the past week or so, ministry officials have realized that the guest list has become too long and the thinking now appears to be an initial meeting that would include Thailand, China and India with representatives of the Burmese military junta.
Thaksin has said that neighboring countries need to agree first on political change in Burma. "As Burma's neighbors have the greatest interest in seeing the country become democratic and thereby ensure regional stability and security," added a senior Thai diplomat, "it would make sense for them to be the main participants in the roadmap forum."