President George W. Bush of the United States imposed economic sanctions on Burma on Monday when he signed into law the Freedom and Democracy Act. Two days later, the military regime in Rangoon indicated that Aung San Suu Kyi might be freed before the Asean summit in October. So, is a western boycott of the repressive dictatorship working? Not really.
The State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), the junta ruling Burma with an iron fist, has a history of making tall promises and falling short on delivery. This time, it really only hinted at the possibility of freeing the Nobel peace laureate. It would not say outright that she would be released. It merely said the contentious issue of her detention would be ``resolved''.
While Burma might enjoy the games it plays with the West by exploiting the sympathies of neighbouring countries, the generals running the show in Rangoon would be mistaken in believing that their recent troubles will go away simply by stonewalling the rest of the world. The brutality of the attack on Ms Suu Kyi's convoy on May 30, when government thugs, reportedly including prisoners from Mandalay jail, clubbed and stabbed to death around 70 democracy supporters, even stirred Asean into breaking its long-standing rule of not interfering in the affairs of member nations. It called for the release of the Burmese opposition leader, and Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad of Malaysia, who had been instrumental in bringing Burma into Asean, went so far as to raise the possibility of expelling Burma from the regional grouping.
The American sanctions will deprive Burma of about $350 million (14.68 billion baht) a year in earnings from exports to the US over a period of three years. They also freeze the regime's financial assets in American banks and ban its officials from entering the US. Burmese exports to America are mostly garments. An estimated 100,000 textile workers might lose their jobs, but the members of the junta, who have long had their assets frozen, will not be directly affected.
The European Union has imposed similar sanctions. Together with the US boycott, these will place a considerable strain on the Burmese economy. However, the lion's share of Burma's trade is with India, China and Thailand. As long as these countries continue to do business, the western economic boycott is unlikely to bring down the regime, even if it does force some short-term concessions.
The situation is the more worrying because many Burma watchers believe the very nature of the well-planned attack on May 30 showed that the hard-liners in the junta, led by Gen Than Shwe, the country's top leader, may have won the internecine battle over moderates like Lt-Gen Khin Nyunt, the powerful intelligence chief, on what to do with Ms Suu Kyi. The hard-liners apparently decided that they did not need to engage in reconciliation talks with the opposition leader.
That would be a serious miscalculation. A full-scale international boycott of Burma, particularly one sanctioned by the United Nations, is quite possible. In this event, Burma would become such an international pariah that even Asean and China would have to reconsider their dealings with Rangoon.
The SPDC appears to be uninterested in Thailand's proposal for a road map to democracy in Burma. Though details of the road map are sketchy, it should seek to entice the hard-liners into adopting a more moderate view. The key condition to be put to the junta must be the unconditional release of Ms Suu Kyi. As risible as some might regard the Thai road map, it is possibly the last chance for the junta to settle a political conflict that otherwise might prove its undoing.