Recent reports in the Bangkok Post hint strongly at the strange chemistry at work in relations between Thailand and neighbouring Burma.
``Army radio fires first salvo at junta,'' read the front page headline of June 27, describing a commentary critical of the ruling junta in Rangoon carried by Defence Ministry-controlled radio stations. The commentary attacked successive military leaderships in Rangoon for failing to rule the country completely after winning independence from Britain 54 years ago.An inside page on the same day carried a small item headlined ``Upgrade for Singkhon pass'', a checkpoint in Prachuap Khiri Khan, in which officials and traders pointed to trade prospects between the central province and southern Burma.
The two stories, reflecting two entirely different moods, and affirming the existence of security concerns and economic aspirations, could cause outsiders to scratch their heads.But they accurately portray the reality of Thai-Burmese relations, which for years have been shaped by a mixture of political tension and trade.
In lashing out at Burma, the army was hitting back at Rangoon's state -controlled media after they published a critical piece about Thailand that touched on the revered monarchy.
Some analysts thought Rangoon was resurrecting a bitter historical period with Thailand in order to build unity at home. Rangoon's media attack, they said, showed Burma's extreme displeasure with Thailand, which has obstructed its decade-long effort to wrest control over rebellious minorities active along the common border.
Creating harmony is a problem for Burmese leaders, said Sunait Chutintaranond, a respected historian and Burma watcher at Chulalongkorn University.
Under General Ne Win, the now-retired strongman who ruled Burma with an iron first after seizing power in 1962, the armed forces had a special role in unifying all ethnic groups, he said. The junta's decision in 1989 to change the country's name from Burma to Myanmar was intended to serve this same goal.
Rangoon wants to end the conflicts with ethnic groups by any means, through a peace deal or through military victory. But the Karen National Union, based along the border opposite Tak, and separatists with the Shan State Army active in areas opposite upper northern provinces, form the last two main groups still resisting accommodation with the generals. And Rangoon clearly believes its forces can overrun these rebel pockets if there were no logistic or moral support from Thailand.
The generals insist that Thailand is providing support despite repeated denials from the Thai government and army. ``That's what [the government of] Burma has firmly believed all along,'' Mr Sunait said.
While Thai and Burmese soldiers on the ground point their guns at each other, Thai policy-makers and traders appear more generous about their neighbours to the west.Depleted natural resources and high wages have diminished Thailand's comparative advantage. When trade opportunities became visible in neighbouring states emerging from behind the curtain thrown up by the Cold War, Thailand in the late 1980s applied a new commercially driven strategy that pushed political conflicts into the background.
Burma is one of a few places in Southeast Asia that remains rich in natural resources, such as seafood, natural gas, gems and timber, and is easily accessible from Thailand. The country also offers cheap labour opportunities.Burma's wealth of natural resources is partly attributed to the decision by Gen Ne Win to close the country to the outside world for 26 years from 1962. But the policy was largely flawed, and Burma became one of the poorest countries in the region.
Burma's recent effort to end its poverty matched Thailand's need for new sources of raw materials to feed its factories and for cheap labour to man them. The Burmese migrants do the dirty jobs Thais reject and help cut production costs so Thai exports can remain competitive internationally.
The call from residents of Prachuap Khiri Khan for an upgrading of the temporary checkpoint to a permanent office reflects the traders' desire to tap the advantages of commerce with the southern Burmese on their doorstep.
Burma's bid for progress is stalled by international condemnation of the generals' refusal to recognise the outcome of the general election held in 1990 in which the opposition National League for Democracy, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, won a landslide victory. The junta continues to face boycotts from the United States and the European Union.Hence, the generals had no other choice but to accept Thailand as a conduit for dragging the country from its isolation and economic doldrums. But the generals have insisted on certain leverage by cultivating relations with other members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, in particular Malaysia and Singapore.Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia are leading destinations for Burmese exports, while Singaporean products top imports into Burma.
While Burma has increased its trade with Singapore and Malaysia, Thailand is laden with imports it did not bargain for, in the shape of illicit drugs, notably methamphetamines, and illegal workers.
Surachart Bamrungsuk, a security analyst at Chulalongkorn University, said the government should be more serious about correcting the widespread, negative image of Thailand as an exploitative businessman.``The better the situation along the border, the better the economic communication between the two countries,'' he said.
The junta in Rangoon has realised it is gaining bargaining power by responding to Thailand's commerce-driven strategy. ``Burma has to rely on Thailand, but the degree of reliance is not the same as it used to be in the past,'' Mr Sunait said. ``On the other hand, Thailand is relying on Burma more and more.''