No one can know for now exactly what is going on in Burma. The uproar created by the government defies rational analysis. The generals have issued orders to whip up the country into an artificial frenzy over a minor and largely bogus border incident. It is still unclear how far they intend to take their anti- Thailand campaign. What is most unsettling is that the military dictators are using their campaign of racist propaganda to avoid undertakings to their country and, more importantly, to their neighbours and the world.
The patience of even Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and Defence Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh has been sorely tested in the past week. The most senior leaders of the military junta not only snubbed their ``friends'' in Thailand but slapped them. Lt-Gen Khin Nyunt, the intelligence chief said to be close to Gen Chavalit, ignored even common courtesy when he refused to answer an invitation to attend the first anniversary party of a Thai-Burma friendship group.
The personal snub to Mr Thaksin was far greater. Both the Burmese leadership and the foreign minister refused to acknowledge or attend the Asia Cooperation Dialogue held in Cha-am last week. That was not only an attempt to organise an Asian economic brainstorming session. It was Mr Thaksin's first personal initiative to put his government on the world map of foreign policy. Mr Thaksin and his foreign minister, Surakiart Sathirathai, claimed Burma would attend. No one believed them.
In the midst of the ravings against ``Yodaya'', and personal contempt of Thai leaders, two important demands have been allowed to slip by Burma. The generals have refused to talk with the democracy groups led by Aung San Suu Kyi. This follows undertakings made to the United Nations, including the secretary-general. The world community has properly made it clear it will be more harsh with Burma if this refusal to negotiate continues.
More disturbing to Thailand and other neighbours must be the decision of the junta to continue to acquiesce to drug trafficking. This _ not border disputes _ is the major security threat to the region. Burma is clearly using the minor Chiang Rai border flare-ups as an excuse to stop acting against drug gangs. It has even slapped aside all offers of outside help for its crop substitution programme.
It is disturbing that the Thai government now is left with no obvious Burma policy. The collapse of the ``four-eyed'', personal diplomacy promoted by Mr Thaksin and Gen Chavalit leaves the government and the country directionless. When Mr Thaksin took over 18 months ago, he pursued the drug campaign vigorously and intelligently. He brooked no rubbish from Rangoon, while offering full cooperation against drug traffickers and help for drug programmes in northern Burma.
Mr Thaksin's best option is to renew that opening policy. He must stop seeming powerless against the raging bigotry pouring out of Rangoon. Certainly Thailand must stand ready to renew correct relations with Burma at any time the generals recommence a more cordial dialogue. But the country must also avoid appearing weak at a time Burma is trying to intimidate. This is the time to support the soldiers in the field, not demoralise them.
It now seems the Burmese generals are determined to cease cooperation with their neighbours and the rest of the world. One hopes the United Nations, regional leaders and influential world figures will try to dissuade them. There is no reason why Thais should have to put up with daily racist taunts from the slavish Burmese media. There is no reason the world should have to put up with the timeless continuation of a brutal military regime that helps to destabilise and corrupt its neighbours.