Burma’s refusal to provide a timetable for restoration of democracy weighed heavily on the ten-member Association of South-east Asian Nations (ASEAN), as it opened its 11th annual summit here, Monday.
Ahead of the summit, leaders used tough words against Burma but there was no talk of steps to punish the wayward regime, such as with threats of expulsion, despite strong demands from ASEAN parliamentarians to do just that.
However, ASEAN -- which groups together Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Burma, Laos, Cambodia, Brunei, the Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam-- may well move to censure Burma.
‘’I think they will issue a statement," Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo told reporters after a working Sunday dinner, indicating the mood of the summit. No further details were available.
On the positive side, the regional grouping has been boosted by a friendship and non-aggression pact with Australia and an economic cooperation pact with Russia. The threat of bird flu, soaring oil prices and terrorism are high on the agenda of the two-day summit.
Also, the summit looks forward to the inaugural East Asia Summit on Wednesday, when ASEAN nations and six other countries -- including regional powerhouses Japan, China, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand -- will participate in the world’s latest grouping.
Conceived by ASEAN, as it seeks wider integration with the region and energise its own combined economy of more than one trillion US dollars and 530 million people, the new group does not include the U.S. but Russia will be present.
Australia invited itself to the summit by virtue of signing the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation with ASEAN, a non-aggression pledge that gave it a bonus seat at the East Asia Summit.
The summit comes at a time when ASEAN is facing a crisis of reputation over fellow member Burma’s stalled democratic reforms, that its junta had promised. ASEAN members are also fuming over the generals’ refusal to free pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
The frustrations of Burma’s ASEAN colleagues, under pressure from the U.S. and Europe to bring the junta in line, were evident in the Malaysian leader’s warning on Saturday.
"So far we have stood by Myanmar," said Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi. "Myanmar (the name Burma’s generals have given the country) must realise that ASEAN is under a lot of pressure. We can’t speak on behalf of Myanmar if we are not certain of what’s happening in the country," he said.
One sore point is that the generals never cared to inform the neighbours of plans to shift the capital from Rangoon to Pyinmana, a remote location in the hills of central Burma, last month.
"It came as a big surprise for many ASEAN members," said Thai Foreign Minister Kantathi Suphamongkhon. ‘’Such a big thing, and we were not informed at all.’’
Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer described Burma’s promised reforms as ‘’glue flowing up the hill’’, at a weekend press conference. ‘’We do not see any progress.’’
But having admitted Burma, there is no provision in ASEAN's rules to expel it and throwing it out would be counterproductive anyway, said Malaysia’s Foreign Minister, Syed Hamid Albar. "We do not believe containment or isolation of Myanmar is the answer," he said, repeating the ASEAN mantra of non-interference in the affairs of a member country. "The fact is that Myanmar has become an embarrassment. The years of so-called constructive engagement, in using the soft-approach, have fallen flat," said The Star newspaper in an editorial on Sunday.
"Even as their country continued to slide economically, they have turned a blind eye to the unhappiness at home and in the region," The Star said. "It would be sheer hypocrisy if ASEAN leaders wax rhetoric about Myanmar when their own human rights records are questionable."
It was in the 1980s that ASEAN last came together in a common stand on Cambodia. Suu Kyi had then just begun her struggle that now spans 16 years, most of it under arrest.
The damage has mostly been to Burma, its prospects and its world standing. Despite her ordeal, Suu Kyi has only grown in stature, as daughter of Burmese national hero Gen. Aung San, as Nobel peace laureate and as her nation’s beacon of hope.
"But for ASEAN rebuke to be meaningful, members must be prepared to back it with concrete and unified action should Yangon (Rangoon) fail to take heed," the newspaper said.
An important feature of the summit is the drafting of an ASEAN charter, mooted by Malaysia. A Kuala Lumpur Declaration on the Establishment of the ASEAN Charter will be signed and an eminent persons’ group formed to produce the draft with human rights and civil society in the region the main planks, a senior ASEAN official told IPS.
"The charter will seek to set acceptable standards of governance, human rights and other acceptable indicators of civil society that all member states must work towards," the official said. "It is a major step forward in ASEAN becoming a community of respectable nations."
There has been considerable tussle over the East Asia Summit (EAS) such a on whether it is a one-off meeting or a permanent bloc. Questions are being asked as to who is in the driver’s seat -- ASEAN, China or India? There are also differences on the aims and scope of the new grouping.
While countries like India, Japan and Australia fear China overshadowing the group and introducing a security element, China and ASEAN want it to be free of U.S. influence via "proxy nations" like Australia.
"ASEAN believes it should be in the driver’s seat in the East Asia Summit and that the summit will be open and outward looking," a Malaysian Foreign Ministry statement on the issue said.
It said the summit would be a forum for dialogue on broad strategic issues. Discussions at the EAS in Kuala Lumpur would focus on international terrorism, energy, infectious diseases, sustainable development, poverty reduction and others.
"The leaders are also expected to have an exchange of views on the role the EAS can play in strengthening the regional architecture," the statement said.
A ‘Kuala Lumpur Declaration’ will be issued at the end of the inaugural summit.
One personality who poured cold water on the East Asia summit was former Malaysian prime minister Mahathir Mohamad who, in fact, proposed such a bloc in 1991. He said the presence of Australia meant that the U.S. would influence the grouping.
"Australia is basically European and it has made clear to the rest of the world that it is the deputy sheriff for America. Therefore, Australia’s views will represent not the East but the views reflecting the stand of America," Mahathir told a press conference.
"I am afraid that knowing Asians, who are always very polite and do not like to appear to be recalcitrant, the views of Australia are likely to dominate this East Asia-Australasia grouping," he said.
Diplomats and political analysts say the uncertainty over the new grouping’s identity ensured that ASEAN would, for the next few years at least, remain the region’s central force for closer integration.
"Any doubt that the East Asia meeting will eclipse ASEAN is unfounded because nothing much is going to come out of the summit," said Abdul Razak Baginda, executive director of Malaysian Strategic Research Centre.
"Even the member states do not know what kind of creature they are creating," he told IPS. "It is still vague and up in the air."
"There is a lot of unnecessary hype over the EAS,’’ he said, adding the grouping has no specific framework or membership policy. "It is a talk shop."
Others, however, say the birth of the forum indicated a new maturity in the region minus the U.S.