Despite the power play that exposed deep fractures in the Burmese state apparatus last week, Burmese leader Gen Than Shwe together with his wife Daw Kyaing Kyaing, their children, and a planeload of security personnel, cabinet ministers and assorted hangers-on have gone ahead with a previously scheduled week-long visit to neighbouring India which the Indian government has termed historic.
When the present crop of Burmese military leaders took power in 1988 and violently suppressed a student rebellion, India was the first neighbouring country to condemn the military government.
The Indian embassy in Rangoon actively supported the pro-democracy student activists and many sought shelter in India after the military coup, including Soe Myint who hijacked a Thai airways plane flying from Bangkok to Rangoon in 1990 and forced it to land at Kolkata airport in India.
Soe Myint is now a leader of the Burmese resistance active in New Delhi.
As the world's largest democracy, India at that time committed itself to pursuing a policy of openly supporting the forces of democracy in Burma and one of complete disengagement from the military junta.
It was a policy in line with the legacies bequeathed by Mahatma Gandhi and Jawarharlal Nehru. Gandhi had said: The only tyrant I accept in this world is the still voice within. The Burmese resistance under Daw Aung San Suu Kyi adopted the non-violent passive resistance philosophy of Gandhi's independence movement.
In 1995, Aung San Suu Kyi was conferred with the prestigious Jawarharlal Nehru Award for International Understanding.
Nehru and the Congress Party of India had supported the independence movement in Burma led by Aung San, Mrs Suu Kyi's father. When Burma gained independence in 1948, Nehru sent a message to the Burmese people: As in the past, so in the future, the people of India will stand shoulder to shoulder with the people of Burma, and whether we have to share good fortune or ill fortune, we shall share it together. On July 7, 1951 a treaty of friendship was signed between the two nations that was to remain in force for ever thereafter.
Times have changed. With the increasing grip that China has gained over the economic, political and military life of Burma, the stranglehold on power that has been maintained by the military junta, the quantum leap in terrorist-related insurgencies in India's northeastern region bordering Burma, the flow of drugs and spread of HIV/Aids across the border from Burma, the desirability of stable relations with neighbours as a conducive environment for economic progress, a Look East approach toward the Asean states, and the need for new sources of energy and markets to sustain growth, India's policy towards Burma's military junta moved in the mid-1990s from complete disengagement to one of working relations and now with the visit of Gen Than Shwe, the first by a Burmese head of state in 24 years, India apparently has embarked on the well-trodden path of constructive engagement long pursued by the other neighbours of Burma.
Despite steadily improved relations since the 1962 border skirmishes, China remains an obsession for many Indian strategists. They point to the Chinese-built radar facility on Burma's Coco Islands near India's Andaman and Nicobar islands which is thought to serve as a listening post for Beijing to monitor missile-testing facilities on India's eastern coast.
India also believes China wants to develop Yangon and Hangyi islands as ports for their naval presence in the Indian Ocean. Of concern also is the four-lane highway from Kunming in China's Yunnan province to the Irrawaddy River in Burma. The highway is wide enough to transport army divisions, warned an Indian government official. That would further endanger our Northeast.
When former Burmese prime minister Khin Nyunt made a formal visit to Pakistan in July 2000, many Indian analysts feared that under the influence of China a sinister Beijing-Rangoon-Islambabad axis was emerging. Those fears were reinforced with the visit to Rangoon by Pakistani leader Gen Pervez Musharraf in May this year.
The visit was preceded by a stopover of three Pakistan navy ships, the first foreign naval call to Burma since the popular uprising of 1988.
The supply of arms and ammunition by Pakistan and China to feed the seemingly insatiable requirements of the Burmese military junta has been another cause of concern for India.
Burma has been on a military spending spree. According to international defence analyst William Ashton, between 35% and 45% of Burma's total government budget has been allocated to the armed forces each year for the past 15 years.
The spending does not include significant allocations from off-budget sources and unofficial payments that never appear in the national accounts.
Under an ambitious defence expansion and modernisation programme, the Burmese armed forces have doubled in size since 1988, making them the second largest in Southeast Asia and, by some calculations, the 15th largest in the world.
The Burmese military has searched far and wide for armaments and weaponry from such far away places as North Korea, Russia, the Ukraine and Serbia.
Arms purchases have included MIG-29B-12 combat aircraft from Russia, Nora self-propelled howitzers from Serbia and on-going discussions for purchase of a submarine, Scud short-range ballistic missiles and nuclear technology from North Korea.
Of special interest is the recent purchase of 1,000 BTR-3U light armoured personnel carriers from the Ukraine. The vehicles feature a German-built Deutz engine and an American-made General Motors Allison automatic transmission. The sale of the BTR-3U to Rangoon may breach US law, which bans the export of American-made military and dual-use products to Burma's military.
Burma's military posture can no longer be ignored and Indian policymakers have chosen to pay attention. In addition, if Burma wishes to update its ageing Soviet-era armaments and is looking for suppliers, then it would be preferable in Indian eyes that some of the armaments be obtained from India both to maintain military links and provide a market for Indian manufacturers.
Politics and business would once again converge quite nicely in the context of constructive engagement.
Of more immediate security concerns on the ground for India, is the long-simmering insurgencies in its Northeastern states bordering the Burmese border that are home to more than 40 million people. Numerous ethnic insurgent groups have been battling the central Indian government for decades, such as the National Socialist Council of Nagaland, the United Liberation Front of Asom, and the National Democratic Front of Bodoland.
Insurgent activities recently took an ominous turn. Over a space of four days beginning on Oct 2, the anniversary of Mahatma Gandhi's birth, 75 people were killed and 200 injured in 17 separate attacks that involved bombings of markets, shooting up of trains and dragging villagers out of their beds to be executed. Attacks of such magnitude and coordination had never been experienced in the past.
Civilians had never before been directly targeted. Indian newspapers were quick to point their fingers at Pakistan and radical Islamic groups in Bangladesh as masterminds behind the escalation of violence.
But to quell the insurgency, Burma's cooperation is seen as essential. Indian officials say the insurgents have bases and safe houses in Burma and Bangladesh. The root of the problem lies in these two countries. Unless the rebels are uprooted from there, violent attacks are bound to go on, insisted Tarun Gogoi, chief minister of Assam state.
Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh promised to pursue talks with the two countries. The visit of Gen Than Shwe will be his first chance to do so.
A separate ministry has been formed by the central government in New Delhi to develop the remote northeastern region of India. One scheme for doing so would be to bring in by pipeline across western Burma the four to six trillion cubic feet of natural gas discovered last year off the coast of Burma's western Arakan state by South Korea's Daewoo conglomerate. The Oil and Natural Gas Corporation of India and the Gas Authority of India Ltd. have struck partnership deals with Daewoo to exploit the gas finds.
The Indian economy has been slowing. From a growth rate of 10.4% in the last quarter of 2003, it is projected to fall to 6.5% this year. One reason is the rising cost of fuel. India this year will spend US$20 billion to import the 900 million barrels of oil it needs _ $9 billion more than it had budgeted for.
Indian officials see China as the main culprit for the surge in oil prices. They quote a study by Michael Rothman, a senior energy analyst at Merrill Lynch, that without extensive hoarding by China which is buying 500,000 barrels of oil a day more than it needs in order to set up a strategic reserve similar to those that some western countries have, world oil prices would be in the range of $30 a barrel instead of the over $50 levels at present.
With oil producers already working at 99% of capacity according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), until new technology becomes economical, demand in the medium term can only be met by drilling new wells in hitherto peripheral areas. India and China are already aggressively engaged in securing sources of oil in Africa, Central Asia and Latin America.
With an expanding economy, Indias energy needs are growing and it has joined the US, Japan and China in the global hunt for energy supplies.
As lower-end players, India and China are in direct competition in many locations. China has invested US$15 billion in foreign oil fields, and India is catching up with investments of $3 billion. The two are clashing more vigorously wherever their paths are crossing on the oil hunt, according to the Businessworld magazine. When Indias Oil and Natural Gas Corp tried to buy a 25% in Sudans Greater Nile oil project, Chinas National Petroleum, which held a 40% stake, raised objections. India managed to ink the $771 million deal only after frantic diplomatic intervention by the Indian prime minister.
With proven oil reserves of 115 million barrels and proven gas reserves of 314.4 billion cubic metres, Burma is a relatively minor energy supplier.
But there are vast unexplored areas, and proximity makes Burma increasingly of interest as a potential source of energy supplies for the two Asian giants.
In the bigger global and regional picture, with terrorism and security concerns, armaments, the dynamics of big power rivalry, international competition for trade and energy supplies, the pageantry of state visits and the real politik calculations of those who arrogate the right to define national interests, it is easy to lose sight of the frail and lonely figure of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.
Our heart is still with her, but our head tells us to deal with the junta, an Indian military officer explained to a recent convention on the restoration of democracy in Burma held in New Delhi.
If they were still alive, Mahatma Gandhi and Jawalarhal Nehru might have enquired about the soul of India as the nation steps out to stake its place in the modern world.
Kobsak Chutikul, a former diplomat and member of parliament, was in New Delhi to attend the international convention for the restoration of democracy in Burma.