If Myanmar's ruling junta ever reaches agreement with pro-democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi on the country's future, it will only be the start of the road to peace. The next step will be getting the Shan to agree. And the Karens. And the Rakhines, the Kachins, the Lahus, the Mon, the Palaungs, the Pa-o, the Wa, the Karennis, the Padaungs, the Akhas, the Kokangs and the Chin.
Myanmar's tortuous ethnic tapestry comprises at least 135 subgroups. Its mountains and jungles are home to a dizzying array of rival tribes, religions, political factions, guerrilla groups and narco-armies bristling with high-tech weaponry.
The military government is dominated by ethnic Burmans and Suu Kyi is also ethnic Burman. Burmans make up about 70 percent of the country's population and have traditionally occupied the plains of central Myanmar, surrounded by mountains inhabited by dozens of rival groups.
Analysts say the military's dictatorial policies are founded on the same fear that haunted generations of Burmese kings over the centuries -- the fear that unless they are subdued, the warlike hilltribes could destroy the country. The junta uses the danger of national disintegration as one of the main justifications for its harsh rule. And, analysts say, Myanmar's ethnic divisions are also a major obstacle to peace.
"The Burmese always felt they were surrounded, always felt they had to subdue the hill people as harshly as they could," said a Western diplomat in Yangon. "The military still believes the country could fall apart if it loosens its grip."
Any peace deal would have to give each of Myanmar's minorities representation in parliament, analysts say. But given the country's ethnic diversity, this could be almost impossible. Some fear that democracy would only lead to a new round of ethnic bloodletting -- and a return of military rule.
HEAVY HAND OF HISTORY
The past hangs heavy over Myanmar politics. The Burmans have tried for centuries to subdue the hill peoples. During talks on independence from Britain, the country's frontier states were offered the option of separate independence. But some minorities were offered considerable autonomy, as well as the right to secede after 10 years, and in the end Burma became independent as a single nation in 1948.
Since then, the country has been riven by ethnic conflict. Multiple insurgencies quickly broke out after independence. The chaos paved the way for military dictator Ne Win to seize power in 1962. The military has ruled ever since.
Battles have raged for decades in Myanmar's forests and hills as the army tried to crush separatist guerrillas. In the 1980s and 90s the junta tried a different tack, offering considerable autonomy to ethnic rebel groups that ended their armed struggle. Many agreed, although some -- notably the Shan State Army and Karen National Union -- are still fighting.
"The military believes that only force can keep these groups in check and that it was only through force that they secured these peace deals," the diplomat said. "The fear is that without force, many of these groups would want to break away."
Myanmar's second largest ethnic group, the Shan, make up about nine percent of the population. The Shan National League for Democracy (SNLD) came second in Myanmar's last elections in 1990, but the results were ignored by the military. SNLD leader Hkun Htun Oo says he believes ethnic groups could be persuaded to stay part of Myanmar if they had enough autonomy.
"Their main aim is to get equality and self-determination in political and administrative affairs," he told Reuters in Yangon. "So long as they get this, I don't think they will break away." But Hkun Tun Oo is a moderate. Any peaceful settlement in Myanmar will have to find ways of placating more warlike ethnic groups, including the world's biggest narco-army -- the Wa.
THE WILD WA
The Wa have always been objects of fear, known as "the wild Wa" by other ethnic groups. A mysterious tribe who say they are descended from tadpoles, they were headhunters for centuries and only gave up decapitating rivals in the 1970s. Since then, they have gained control of much of Myanmar's heroin trade and have also branched into the lucrative production of methamphetamines and ecstasy in remote jungle laboratories.
The United Wa State Army (UWSA), as the narco-army calls itself, has 20,000 troops and an arsenal that includes surface-to-air missiles, according to Jane's Defence Weekly. Its earnings have funded modern cities in the Golden Triangle, a network of businesses active in all aspects of Myanmar's economy -- and an extremely formidable arsenal.
Foreign drug enforcement officials say dryly that the UWSA is Myanmar's largest foreign-exchange earner.
Since 1989, when the UWSA struck a peace deal with the junta in Yangon, it has run the territory it controls as a private fiefdom. It has its own border checkpoints, levies its own taxes, and is left to pursue its vast drugs business unmolested.
Foreign countries have demanded the UWSA is put out of action. It is difficult to see how any democratic government that emerged in Yangon could avoid going to war with the Wa.
"The Wa would be quite happy to be left in peace to produce their drugs," the diplomat said. "But of course, sooner or later somebody is going to have to try to stop them."
Many other ethnic groups, embittered by years of perceived oppression by Yangon, will also be unlikely to want to be part of a democratic Myanmar. Unless a solution can be found to win them over, analysts say, there is a real risk that if the country ever returned to democracy, it would violently implode.