Burma's reliance on China
BBC(12-12-01)
By BBC regional analyst Larry Jagan
China has been Burma's biggest and most ardent supporter since the generals seized power in 1988. Since then Rangoon and Beijing have been very close allies.
Most of Burma's military hardware comes from China, including tanks, patrol boats and fighter jets. The Chinese military also provides most of the army and the air force's specialist training. But there is some concern within the Burmese army that it is becoming overly dependent on Beijing for military equipment and training. Rangoon is scouting around and trying to diversify its sources of military hardware.
New allegiances
There have been growing military ties between Burma and India. Burma has also acquired sophisticated fighter planes from Moscow.
"Beijing wasn't happy with the recent Burmese purchase of MiG jets, and they made their displeasure known," a Western diplomat told the BBC. There has been constant speculation over the past decade that Burma and China continue to work closely in the area of intelligence.
"We have little doubt that the Chinese are allowed to have access to the Indian Ocean for intelligence purposes," said an Indian Government official.
A matter of money
Other defence specialists are less convinced. China has certainly helped Burma build a deep-sea port near Mergui on the Andaman sea. But analysts believe this is as much for economic reasons as strategic.
A decade ago the Chinese authorities encouraged the southern states, especially Yunnan province to look southwards to Burma. Beijing was concerned that the living standards in the country's southern hinterland was falling behind the more prosperous eastern seaboard area which benefited from trading with Hong Kong, Vietnam and indirectly with Taiwan.
Since then trade between Burma and southern China has flourished. China is officially the third most important trading partner with bilateral trade estimated to be worth more than $600m a year. But analysts believe the value of exports to China could be double that, as much of the trade between the countries is informal.
China has also funded substantial infra-structural development in Burma, including deep-sea ports, roads and airports. Beijing has done much of this through low-interest loans.
Apart from giving Chinese producers better access to the Burmese market, China's central planners also see these developments as giving Chinese products to potential export markets further afield, in South Asia, the Middle East and even Europe through this transit system.
Flourishing drugs trade
But improved road links, especially in the north of the country, have also benefited the narcotic smugglers. The production and distribution of amphetamines has risen substantially in the past few years. United Nations anti-narcotics experts estimated that 60% of these tablets end up in China.
China is also a major transit route for the drug smugglers from Burma's Golden Triangle. Increased drug addiction within China, along the drug routes, has prompted Beijing to see the stamping out of drug production and trafficking as a major issue.
Ironically Beijing's policy of helping Burma develop its internal road links and external air routes will make the country increasingly important strategically.
Already India and Japan are anxious to counter what they see as worrying Chinese influence in Burma. Rangoon no doubt hopes to be able to exploit this rivalry to its own advantage.