There are few positives to be said about Burma, and Asean must wake up to the negative effects of pandering to the military regime.
Asean has swallowed the embarrassment of allowing Burma to become a member of the regional grouping for seven years, but it is now under renewed pressure to fulfil its responsibility to pull the military dictatorship into line.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations' policy of constructive engagement has failed to encourage Rangoon to produce a transition from military dictatorship to democracy or even to recognise the region's concerns over the junta's hardline rule.
This refusal to bend on the part of Burma's generals has not only been a failing on the part of Asean but the United Nations as well. The UN secretary-general's special envoy, Razali Ismail, has worked painstakingly with the junta to bring about change, but for little tangible result.
Nobel peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the main opposition party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), and other advocates of democracy and ethnic groups continue to be denied their basic right of freedom of speech and association.
Ms Suu Kyi has been held in detention _ at first in prison and then under house arrest _ since May last year after she and her supporters were attacked by pro-government militia while on a political tour of the countryside.
Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's policy of active engagement of the junta has produced an easing of tensions along the border but no reduction in the trade in drugs and humans across the frontier.
Worse, the engagement and being seen as an apologist for the military regime has damaged Thailand's credibility with the world community _ only for Burma to refuse to attend a second Bangkok Process meeting to discuss changes in its political process in April. Rangoon said it was too busy working on the first of seven steps making up its own road map to democracy to attend the meeting. The road map was announced by General Khin Nyunt when he took over the post of prime minister last August.
A convention called by the junta to prepare a constitution began meeting on May 17 without Ms Suu Kyi's NLD or other legitimate participants who had taken part in a similar convention suspended in 1991. Rangoon expects the convention to complete its work in a month or two.
Meanwhile, the world looks on in concern, and the European Union recently withdrew its finance and economic ministers from Asia-Europe Meeting, or Asem, talks in frustration at Asean's refusal to do anything about Burma. The EU may also withdraw from the Asem leadership summit in Hanoi in October. These developments have placed Burma squarely on the agenda of the Asean annual meeting in Jakarta tomorrow.
Prapat Thepchatree, director of Thammasat University's Centre for International Policies Studies, said the Burma question had cost Asean valuable time and energy, but could not be ignored since the grouping had welcomed Rangoon into their fold.
Mr Prapat said he did not see the Asean leaders reaching any decision on Burma at their meeting tomorrow as the real dilemma would not manifest itself until 2006 _ when Rangoon became the chairman of the grouping as part of the usual rotation process.
A former Asean secretary-general, Rudolfo Severino of the Philippines, cautiously defended Asean's policy of non-interference in its members' affairs. He said the principle underpinned the grouping and all regional organisations.
The members of Asean have different approaches to the situation in Burma, and most have discussed this with Rangoon, said Mr Severino, now with the Singapore-based Institute for Southeast Asian Studies.
He did concede, however, that Asean, like other regional groupings or the United Nations, had to expect certain norms of behaviour from its member states towards their populations.
Mahathir Mohammad, Malaysia's long-serving prime minister until late last year, had hoped that Rangoon would set a timeframe for political reform so its membership of Asean would not harm the grouping as a whole. He raised the possibility of Burma's expulsion from the grouping if it refused to move forward, a suggestion welcomed widely by Burmese exiles and members of the world community.
At a regional consultation in Bangkok early this month, exiled activists called on Asean to suspend Burma's membership and proposed global sanctions against the regime such as freezing remittances to the Burmese economy. Only state firms and banks and junta-related businesses benefit from foreign earnings, according to the activists. Small companies and individuals have underground channels to receive hard currency.
The activists also called on the UN Security Council to give more serious consideration to the situation inside Burma.
One activist, Lim Kit Siang of Malaysia, said from Penang that Asean's foreign ministers needed to draft their own road map for Rangoon which would set out ways for it to start behaving like a responsible member of the regional grouping, including the immediate release of Ms Suu Kyi and other political detainees.
Kuala Lumpur, which will serve as Asean chairman before handing it over to Burma, must be prepared to take the lead in proposing the suspension of Burma from Asean if the military junta is not prepared to commit itself to meaningful democratisation and national reconciliation.
But given the considerable number of people who resist the imposition of sanctions against Rangoon, including the UN Commission on Human Rights' special rapporteur, Sergio Pinheiro, tougher action seems improbable.
Surachart Bumrungsuk of Chulalongkorn University, for one, questioned the merit of sanctions.
``There seems to be only two approaches to the Burma issue,'' he said:. ``Either apply more pressure for change or accommodate and educate Rangoon. I'd like to see other alternatives, if there are any.''
Mr Surachart has been invited to spend half the week at Government House working on domestic security issues. He said that, at the end of the day, it was up to the State Peace and Development Council, or SPDC, the official name of the junta, to decide how it wanted to live with the world, and for Thailand to learn how to live with Burma.
Kobsak Chutikul, vice-chairman of the House foreign affairs committee, said Asean needed to find a solution before Burma took up the chairmanship in 2006.
He said Asean's ability to attract major powers for talks on equal terms was put in jeopardy by Burma's continuing bad behaviour.
Mr Kobsak said Asean, less Burma, had to collectively seek outside support, probably from China, to push Burma towards democratic change. Beijing has said, albeit vaguely, that it was ready to mediate with Burma on a timetable for change if this was what Asean wanted.
``It's difficult to expect more sanctions from the US and EU or to call for a change in their policies to accommodate constructive engagement with Burma due to their domestic political constraints,'' he said. The earlier mooted show of force to bring about change is now out of the question because of events in Iraq, he added.
China is a member of the UN Security Council and so any Beijing-brokered deal would be accepted internationally, Mr Kobsak said.
Civil society groups around the region have suggested that while there is no progress in pressing Rangoon for change, people should keep a close watch on their government's dealings with Burma.
Assistance, especially for health and education, is being encouraged to help Burma's needy, while infrastructure aid, particularly for dams and nuclear plants, should be barred since the money does not directly benefit the people, the civil society groups said.
The Thai government is engaged in bilateral schemes with Rangoon and the sub-regional Ayawaddy-Chao Phraya-Mekong Economic Cooperation Strategy.
Prime Minister Thaksin early this month offered the junta a two billion baht credit line and a range of technical assistance, but has yet to convince the Thai people what progress Rangoon has made in preventing illegal border activities and reforming its political institutions in exchange for the money which might be better spent helping Thai children and hospitals.