The anniversary of the group’s founding emphasises the common values that every member must adopt. Today is Asean Day, the anniversary of the group’s founding 38 years ago. Coincidentally, it is also the day when Burmese democracy-lovers poured out onto the streets of Rangoon 17 years ago and were subsequently crushed.
For the first time, considering the two incidents together seems natural. When Burma decided last month to forgo next year’s chairmanship of Asean, it represented a high point for the grouping. Never before in its history had Asean asserted itself so forcefully in the face of a member state.
Simply put, it showed that peer pressure on Burma does work eventually. More than officials would like to admit, continued criticism by certain key Asean foreign ministers - some describe it as the Asean way of discreet criticism - left Burma with no choice but to back down from its original intransigent stance. Asean ministers told Burma in no uncertain terms to put the grouping’s interests first.
For the past eight years, Asean has suffered a great deal from its decision to admit Burma. The grouping will continue to face a large amount of uncertainty as long as political dialogue and the process of national reconciliation inside that country fail to progress. This is a huge dilemma, one that will haunt Asean in the coming years. The ball is now in the Burmese court. Unfortunately for everyone else, Burma will more than likely manipulate Asean and come out on top.
There are currently two competing developments inside Asean. One is a new attempt at drafting an Asean charter, which will start later this year. At the planned Asean summit in Kuala Lumpur, a group of eminent personalities will be appointed to compile the core principles that will govern the future of Asean. This legally binding constitution will provide a framework for the realisation of the three communities envisaged by Asean, security, economic and socio-cultural. It should take a year to complete the charter.
Meanwhile Burma is racing against time to fulfil its pledge to follow through on its seven-point road map for democracy. In Vientiane, Burma said that it planned to use the next year to concentrate on domestic development and national reconciliation, but that was only a half-truth.
Obviously Burma knows the next 12 to 18 months will prove crucial to Burmese membership of Asean. It is a do-or-die proposition. The Burmese junta hopes that by 2007 domestic conditions will have fallen into place in accordance with the map. The completion of a new constitution followed by a national referendum by the middle of next year is very much in the works. Then an election will follow, probably at the end of next year, and a new government will be formed.
Come 2007, Asean will face a dilemma about whether to grant Burma’s desire to take up the chairmanship, after the Philippines. Asean foreign ministers were not very clear on this point. Some said that Burma could do so right away if the country were ready. And which country will serve as arbitrator in determining Burma’s readiness to return? It’s a tricky question. Strangely enough, it would serve the grouping’s interests if this ambiguity were to continue.
If the future Asean charter is true to the spirit that was expressed jointly in the Declaration of Asean Concord II in Bali and the Vientiane Action Plan, it is unlikely that Burma will be able to assume the chairmanship, because of the new adopted shared values and norms.
The problem is, how can Asean continue to apply pressure on Burma to ensure that any political settlement and democratisation will be comprehensive enough to include all stakeholders inside the country? An Asean with a proper charter would never recognise a pariah state.
Ironically, as we have seen, from now on 8-8-88 will take on a whole new significance. It is incumbent upon Asean to ensure that when Burma finally does assume the chair, it does so in a respectable manner, one that highlights the grouping’s maturity and common values.