Asean leaders were relieved when the Burmese regime in Pyinmana recently informed them officially that the country would skip its turn to host the 2008 ministerial meeting after the Philippines next year. Singapore was next in line and has already agreed to host the event.
The reason the junta leaders gave was that they were simply not ready as they were still consolidating power in their new capital. But the junta reiterated to Asean that its road map for democracy and political reform, which it adopted in October 2003, would proceed as planned. The hope is that by next year, Burma will have a new constitution, approved in a referendum, and an elected government for the world to see. That was made clear.
Upon a close scrutiny, however, one can detect two ulterior motives lurking behind Burma's decision. First, the willingness Burma showed in giving up its turn to take the Asean chairmanship this year is directly linked to its concerted efforts to appease fellow members. Burma's failure to show real commitment to the group and to political reform has been a real nightmare for Asean in the past year.
Overall, the core Asean members have toughened their views and position on the junta. However, the grouping's image and reputation has continued to take a beating due to the continuing political deterioration inside Burma.
Since the extension of Aung San Suu Kyi's detention last month, international sentiment has become more sympathetic to her plight and her aspirations for Burma. The latest news that she has been hospitalised also heightens the sense of urgency that something must be done at the highest level to bring further pressure to bear on the junta regime.
The ongoing effort at the UN Security Council, pushed by the United States and Western countries, to discuss the Burmese situation together with a resolution points to increased frustration by major powers over the political impasse there.
The junta hoped that its early notification of relinquishing its turn to play host next year would generate goodwill from the feeling that Pyinmana was being considerate to other members this time around. Its position is also understandable in view of the fact that hosting the Asean meeting would entail opening up the country to outside scrutiny and visits by foreign guests.
When Asean foreign ministers met in Laos last year, they used peer pressure to force Burma to withdraw from taking the chairmanship this year. Instead, the Philippines will take over from Malaysia at the meeting in July. At first it was thought that Burma's recess would last for only a year or two; whenever it felt ready to take the chairmanship, Asean foreign ministers would accept it, as Thai Foreign Minister Kanthathi Suphamongkon pointed out. But at this juncture, Asean is having serious second thoughts. Kanthathi has since also expressed disappointment with Suu Kyi's continued detention.
That leads us to the second point. The five-year term of the current Asean secretary-general, Ong Keng Yong of Singapore, ends next year and Thailand is next in line to provide a successor. The Thai government has not yet considered who this should be, although initial discussions on potential candidates were held at the Foreign Ministry.
Bangkok has at least one year to come up with a name, which must be approved by the Cabinet. Apparently, the government is reluctant to do so now as its bid for the UN secretary-general's post, for which it announced its candidacy almost three years in advance, is moving into the final phase.
But for the Burmese, Thailand's choice for the next Asean secretary-general is pivotal. Ong has been quite effective when it came to commenting on Burma: he has been candid about the situation there and the perceived roles of India and China as Asean's dialogue partners. But nobody knows whether such forthright assessments will be the norm for Thailand's candidate.
Burma thinks taking up the Asean chairmanship in July 2008, after Singapore and before Thailand, would be ideal to take advantage of its eastern neighbour's stance and cooperation. It is difficult to predict the Thai political scenario over the next two years, but Burma is obviously betting on Thai support if it decides to go ahead.
The longer Burma waits the more complications it will generate as Asean is now moving ahead with drafting its charter. Among other principles and norms, collective responsibility could in future be Asean's new core value to counterbalance its principle of non-interference in member states' internal affairs. If this is approved and subsequently included in the charter, Burma's future in Asean will be subject to a legally binding framework.