Despite most of ASEAN’s core members placing increasing pressure on Burma to step up democratization efforts over the past year, this week’s ministerial meeting is not expected to produce any major regional commitment on the issue, analysts said over the weekend.
Ministers from ASEAN’s 10 states will meet in Kuala Lumpur today before attending the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) – the region’s top security dialogue, which also includes the United States, China, India, Japan and South Korea.
And despite a toughening of its stance against Rangoon over the past year, ASEAN is expected to backtrack somewhat at this week’s meetings, leaving the United Nations and other international bodies to continue to lead international pressure on Burma’s military rulers.
ASEAN Secretary-General Ong Keng Yong was quoted last week as saying that, although ASEAN would come up with a unified stance on the issue of Burma, he could not offer any assurances of improvement.
“Whether it will help the situation in Myanmar, we do not know, but definitely, the interest of ASEAN foreign ministers is to make sure that the issue of Myanmar will not continue to undermine the standing of ASEAN,” Ong was quoted as saying by Malaysia’s Bernama news agency.
“We know that we should not interfere in another member country’s internal affairs but at the same time the Myanmar issue no longer has an internal dimension. This issue affects’ ASEAN’s credibility and image.”
But despite tough words from ASEAN member states including Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines, analysts say Thailand will continue to resist being pulled into the direction of the other core ASEAN nations.
Thailand – one of Myanmar’s biggest trading partners along with China – continues to press for economic and political engagement as the best way to bring Rangoon into the fold.
“The Thai government has a different agenda in mind, so to force a united ASEAN front in terms of Myanmar policy would I think be very difficult,” said Somchai Pakapatwiwat, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University.
“Thailand has already been pressured for so long to adopt something more in line with the rest of ASEAN, but Thailand’s foreign policy has always been guided by economic interests and how can they reconcile this without sacrificing the other?”
Nopadol Gunavibool, director-general of the Foreign Ministry’s Department of ASEAN Affairs, said last week that Thailand would continue to urge ASEAN to maintain a dialogue with Rangoon rather than risk pushing the junta into a corner.
Burma agreed to skip its turn heading the grouping this year after lawmakers from several ASEAN nations called for Yangon to be denied the rotating chairmanship if the junta failed to make progress on reform.
But US Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice is also due to attend the ARF meeting, where she is expected to put pressure on ASEAN to take a tougher stance on Burma.
Washington hinted last week that her trip to Kuala Lumpur would not be affected by her expected Middle East peace mission despite concerns she may skip the meeting for the second year in a row.
ASEAN was sharply criticized by Rice for failing to do enough to censure Yangon at last year’s summit where her absence was seen as a statement on ASEAN’s failure to deal with Burma.
However, observers say that even with US pressure, ASEAN remains limited in what it can do to convince Rangoon to step up democratization efforts including releasing opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
“Even with mounting pressure from the US, the only thing that the pressure will produce is that a common position will be adopted but only in abstract terms,” Somchai said.
“ASEAN will not get in the way of any UN security council action but support of any action will only be in terms of rhetoric but not in real action.”
And with little in the way of progress with ASEAN on Burma, critics say Thailand’s individual economic interests continue to be a major stumbling block undermining the regional grouping’s international standing.
“If Thailand still sticks to its present position, it cannot do anything good for ASEAN. It has to do something more in terms of sending a message to Myanmar that they need to do something substantially and fast enough to be a responsible member of the organization,” said Suchit Boonbongkarn, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University.
“I would want to see the original members of ASEAN develop into a core grouping for making very decisive decisions on very important issues, particularly Myanmar, which is vital to the future of ASEAN.”
But recent efforts by ASEAN to convince Burma to improve its democratization efforts have been met with indifference by Rangoon. And recent comments from leading ministers suggest ASEAN is ready to step aside and allow the UN to continue to lead the way, with the grouping’s policy of non-interference again highlighting its limitations.