Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations' (ASEAN) Eminent Persons Group are meeting in Bali, Indonesia, on April 17-21. The most important topic on their agenda is what to do with Burma. Although the talks will not lead to direct action, ASEAN will emerge from the meeting more determined to press for change in Burma. If the organization presses too hard, Burma, emboldened by its growing relationships with Russia, India and China, will cancel its membership.
Analysis
Indonesia is hosting an April 17-21 meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations' (ASEAN) Eminent Persons Group, which is working to determine the best course of action for Burma's pariah regime. When ASEAN decided to accept Burma into its fold, it did so with considerable condemnation from the West. Since then, Myanmar has been the proverbial thorn in ASEAN's side, and now ASEAN members are trying to find a unified position on how to address the rogue regime.
ASEAN has recently ratcheted up its rhetoric on Burma, but to no avail. ASEAN will not give the country the boot, as that would go against the group's mandate to stabilize and engage the countries in the region. However, ASEAN members will agree to turn up the heat to promote member countries' fluid integration in security, economic and political matters. But if the temperature gets too high, Burma will back out of the organization.
Burma continues to promise governmental progress and to follow its democratic road map, but this does not indicate any actual forward motion. It is part of an ongoing cycle: ASEAN gives Burma a little pressure, Burma says it is working on its road map, the pressure from ASEAN dies down, Burma makes no move to shed its pariah status and the cycle repeats. But maybe not this time. Burma has finally pushed ASEAN to the edge, as its membership threatens the organization's credibility in the international community.
ASEAN, an organization that prides itself on protecting its member nations' inviolable rights of sovereignty, has been reluctant to meddle in Burma's domestic affairs. After all, Burma is not the first country in the region to have serious domestic troubles. Yet it remains intractable, and ASEAN is unable to move forward as a unit because it must make "special arrangements" for Burma in any international negotiations. Furthermore, Burma's membership calls into question ASEAN's mandate and ability to promote social progress, cultural development and regional peace and stability.
Burma not only hampers ASEAN's progress as a formidable international organization, but its refusal to address key issues -- its AIDS epidemic, refugees flowing across its borders and rampant crime, including drug and human trafficking -- has begun to irk its neighbors. ASEAN has looked to China to help influence its rogue member, and China has said publicly -- in a whisper -- that its borders are suffering from the military junta's illegal "exports."
Regardless of China's muted censure of Burma, Beijing continues to pump money into the country, and into the hands of the military regime. Russia and Burma inked agreements in early April on cooperation in the oil sector and arms exports to Burma. India and Burma are also signing agreements on natural gas exports to India. Burma's natural resources are helping the country make friends outside the ASEAN circle and maintain relationships within ASEAN that could hold up even without Burma's membership. This will subsequently allow Burma to snub ASEAN with little economic effect.
ASEAN will invigorate its mandate to push for change in Burma as part of the organization's attempt to bolster its international credibility and legitimacy, and will continue to seek assistance on the issue from China and India. This course is not likely to produce tangible results; rather, it will probably push an already xenophobic regime further into isolation. If ASEAN pushes too hard, Burma's military junta will retreat farther into the jungle, renouncing its membership to the one organization that promised it progress.