If leverage is the ticket to mediation, the United Nations' efforts to bring about political reconciliation in Burma have proved increasingly powerless in the past few months. The military leaders in Naypyidaw remain defiant in the face of the UN's calls for introducing an inclusive national reconciliation process in Burma. The junta recently announced that they will continue their unilateral implementation of a political roadmap by setting out dates for a constitutional referendum in May 2008 and a new general election in 2010. The generals even rejected the UN suggestion to establish a poverty alleviation commission to address the country's humanitarian crisis, clearly demonstrating the regime's disregard for the people's welfare.
The junta delayed a return visit by UN Special Envoy Ibrahim Gambari until mid-April. China and India, through quiet diplomacy, are now trying to press the regime to agree to allow Gambari back this month. The recalcitrant generals, however, appeared to set March as the earliest date for his return.
Despite Ban Ki-Moon repeatedly warning that a return to the status quo existing before the September 2007 crisis is not sustainable, the situation is now going back to square one. Everyone realises that the momentum of the UN's mediation efforts has been dying down, and needs to be critically strengthened.
"Failure of Gambari's mission strongly suggests that the mandate of the secretary-general falls far short," said Aung Din, executive director of the US Campaign for Burma. "The Burma mandate of Ban Ki-Moon, which has now been given by the UN General Assembly, must be enhanced and strengthened by the UN Security Council."
According to diplomatic sources close to the UN, the possibility of such an initiative so far seems to be slim due to China's position within the Security Council. Ban Ki-Moon may not want to risk China's rejection in making such a bold recommendation to the Council.
It seems that Ban Ki-Moon is not ready to make such a proactive demand. If he pushed it within the UNSC, the Council could receive his recommendation as a procedural formality, but many observers believe that China would say no to an actual decision and the initiative would then fail.
"Ultimately, it is not a question for Ban Ki-Moon, but for members of the UNSC," said Farhan Haq, a spokesman for Ban Ki-Moon. "We continually update the Council through Gambari on what we have done on Burma. If they want to create a separate mandate, it would be for members of the Council to decide."
Aung Din disagrees, however. "No matter whether or not the UNSC will agree to develop a Burma mandate for Ban Ki-Moon, it is his duty to ask for an effective mandate from the UNSC so that he can make a mediation effort in Burma possible," he said.
Group of Friends
Another possible mechanism, apart from a direct UNSC mandate, is the "Group of Friends of the Secretary-General on Myanmar," comprised of the 14 nations of Australia, Indonesia, Russia, the United States, China, Japan, Singapore, Vietnam, France, Norway, Thailand, India, Portugal and the United Kingdom.
The group is officially described as "a consultative forum for developing a shared approach in support of the implementation of the secretary-general's good offices mandate." Ban Ki-Moon convened the first meeting of the group on December 19 last year and the second meeting on February 13 to assist him in his efforts to spur changes in Burma.
The group will continue to meet informally as needed.
Many analysts wonder whether it could develop into possible multi-party talks on the North Korea model. Some Burma advocates in the US have suggested that Ban Ki-Moon should convene the next meetings of the group in such Asian capitals as Jakarta or Beijing, thus making regional countries more committed and involved in UN-led mediation efforts.
Gambari, who is now in Asia for a regular regional tour, recently expressed his frustration: "Everybody that I have spoken to has on record supported the role of the good offices of the secretary-general. But I am not satisfied with that. I want that general verbal expression of support to be translated into concrete action in support."
However, the possibility of the "Group of Friends", with such diverse interests and views, offering the "concrete action in support" called for by Gambari remains a distant hope.
All in all, it is Ban Ki-Moon who now needs to make a decisive move to strengthen his good offices role. In a recent report, the International Crisis Group (ICG) called for the direct involvement of Ban Ki-Moon, saying: "It would be useful for Ban Ki-moon to get more personally involved, particularly at times when negotiations may appear to be deadlocked." It even urged Ban Ki-moon to pay a personal visit to Naypyidaw in the near future.
Burma's opposition National League for Democracy said it would like to see such a visit at the highest level take place. "If Gambari's attempt continues to fail in bringing results, Ban Ki-Moon himself should visit Burma and let the military generals know clearly that the status quo is unacceptable and unsustainable," said NLD spokesman Nyan Win.
UN officials are cautious about the prospect of such a visit taking place, however.
"The secretary-general is willing to consider different options," said Farhan Haq. "He has been talking with different Myanmar (Burma) authorities as he has opportunity to. But he has established his senior official, Mr Ibrahim Gambari, as a special envoy who is the person to carry a message from the secretary-general to the Myanmar authorities, as he has done several times in recent months. This is where Ban Ki-Moon's initiative focuses on at present."
Diplomatic sources in New York said that UN officials are concerned about possible embarrassment for Ban Ki-Moon if the Burmese junta refuses to follow his minimum requests and suggestions.
However, in order to help maximise the international effort to resolve Burma's crisis, there is a need now to strengthen the direct involvement of Ban Ki-Moon by demanding a separate UNSC mandate, mobilising the "Friends of Myanmar" group mechanism or by a personal visit to Naypyidaw - or a combination of all these options. In any case, the suffering of the Burmese people under the military regime is far higher than any possible discomfiture Ban Ki-Moon may experience by being rejected by either the regime or its close ally, China. The secretary-general must try his best for Burma.