In order to see positive political change in Burma it's clearly necessary to understand the psyche of Than Shwe and his men. Various informed sources close to the armed forces and the military government have disclosed that Senior General Than Shwe told his generals at an emergency meeting that they have to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
He asked his men to launch a diplomatic, ''damage control'' offensive after the brutal crackdown in September. But he is not prepared to surrender his seven step ''roadmap''.
The sources also said that the regime's propaganda machine is running well at the higher level and among the soldiers. The regime's spin on events is that the US and exiled media were behind the September uprising.
During the uprising, soldiers and officers were instructed to beat monks and to raid monasteries, where they were told ''bogus monks'' had infiltrated the Sangha community with the aim of destabilising the state.
Soldiers and their families were also ordered to watch state-run Burma television and to avoid popular foreign TV broadcasters like the BBC, CNN and Al Jazeera during the uprising in September.
This indicates that soldiers and their families, who are Buddhist, are not happy with the crackdown on the monks. Rangoon's Ngwe Kyar Yan monastery, a prime target of army raids, was frequently visited by the families of some army officers.
Some high-ranking generals reportedly received angry phone calls and complaints from family members who regularly visit Ngwe Kyar Yan monastery and other temples.
This increasing dissent and unhappiness within the armed forces is a serious problem that Snr Gen Than Shwe will have to tackle as a matter of urgency. He may have to reshuffle his cabinet and top leadership of the armed forces in order to quell dissent and possible schisms.
This isn't new, however. After the Depayin massacre, when Aung San Suu Kyi and her supporters were violently attacked, he introduced a ''roadmap'' and appointed Gen Khin Nyunt to head the cabinet as prime minister. One year later Gen Khin Nyunt was ousted and replaced by Snr Gen Than Shwe's trusted man, Gen Soe Win.
Last week's reshuffle indicated that Snr Gen Than Shwe is still in control and has tightened his grip on power. After Soe Win's death, Secretary One of the ruling council, Lt-Gen Thein Sein, was appointed prime minister. The hardliner Lt-Gen Tin Aung Myint Oo, bearer of the title Thiha Thura (''Courageous as a Lion''), became Secretary One.
The appointment of Labour Minister Aung Kyi to be ''liaison minister'' between Daw Suu Kyi and the regime is seen as a ploy to buy more time and to create more breathing space for the regime.
Indeed, Mr Aung Kyi's recent meeting with Daw Suu Kyi was clearly intended to deflect international criticism. Some government sources suggested that it was aimed at appeasing China and Russia, the regime's allies.
Inside the army, top generals are restless amid persistent rumours that Snr Gen Than Shwe's deputy, Gen Maung Aye, who is currently army chief and deputy commander-in-chief of the armed forces, has been increasingly sidelined.
During the uprising, there was a rumour of a possible counter-coup by Gen Maung Aye against Snr Gen Than Shwe.
The example of Gen Ne Win, who resigned as head of the armed forces after reaching the retirement age of 60, paving way for a younger generation to take over, is being raised.
Of course, Ne Win left his trusted men in top positions in the armed forces.
Snr Gen Than Shwe, took over the reins of the military government in April 1992, when he replaced Snr Gen Saw Maung as head of Burma's ruling body, then known as the State Law and Order Restoration Council, or SLORC.
Born in 1933 in Kyaukse, Mandalay Division, Than Shwe joined the army at age 20. A year later, he attended the Officer Training School and became an army officer before enrolling in the Institute of Central Politics.
In 1958, he was attached to the psychological warfare department. But sensing perhaps that his future would be brighter in the armed forces, Than Shwe asked his superiors to post him back to the army.
His rapid rise though the the army began with postings in the Karen and Shan states. In 1978 he was promoted to colonel. At age 50, he became one of the youngest commanders in the Burmese army when he was handed the post in the Southwest Region, and by 1987 his rank was elevated to lieutenant-general.
Now, Snr Gen Than Shwe _ whose age has been officially given as 74 _ doesn't dare relinquish his powerful position in the Tatmadaw (Burmese military). He trusts no one.
Enter Gen Shwe Mann, who bears the Thura (''Courageous'') title, and who is now the regime's No. 3 man and is joint coordinator of the army, navy and air force. He rose quite rapidly to the top ranks, and Snr Gen Than Shwe might now want to make him commander-in-chief, bypassing Gen Maung Aye.
Informed sources told The Irrawaddy that Snr Gen Than Shwe now closely works with Gen Shwe Mann and Lt-Gen Thein Sein. They are both known to be good listeners and get on with each other. Lt-Gen Thein Sein is from Defence Services Academy 9 and Gen Shwe Mann is from 11.
Faced with fresh sanctions and increasing international pressure, Snr Gen Than Shwe, the former psychological warfare officer, is expected to bring more dynamics to the political landscape in Burma.
With changes and a reshuffle, more cosmetic changes can be expected to emerge on the horizon. This is a survival game for him and his regime.
A former army officer once noted that generals have a simple approach _ take over the high ground in a battle and retain it.
Snr Gen Than Shwe has the high ground, and he's not likely to give it up.