Recent developments in Burma may have given the Association of Southeast Asian Nations a reason to smile, but experience with the junta not so long ago should restrain Asean from throwing caution to the wind.
The cause for hope stems not only from the generals' decision to let detained democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi meet members of her party for the first time in three years last Friday.
Also encouraging is Mrs Suu Kyi's positive reaction to the generals' permission, and her readiness to "co-operate" with them.
For about two hours on Nov 9, Mrs Suu Kyi is said to have discussed with leaders of her National League for Democracy the conditions for talks between her and junta chief Senior General Than Shwe, as well as ways to help protesters who were arrested and injured during the demonstrations in September.
A day earlier, in a statement read in Singapore by the United Nations special envoy Ibrahim Gambari, she raised hope of a thaw by saying she was "ready to cooperate with the government in order to make this process of dialogue a success".
Few would deny that the opening on the part of Mrs Suu Kyi is as important as that of the junta for any move towards national reconciliation.
Fewer may know why, but there is logic in the suggestion that the passage of time may have played a part. It is 18 years since she returned to her homeland and, after seeing so little come of a position she held for so long, it is conceivable that she may have decided to move on.
Whatever is in the mind of the lady, Asean has a prime opportunity at the summit in Singapore next week to make known to the junta's representative what it thinks.
In the process, the grouping should show appreciation where it is due, guard against being over-indulgent of the junta, and make clear that there will be consequences for any backsliding or game-playing.
Over-indulgence of the junta, as Asean should know, would invite scorn from the grouping's critics, as well as the junta itself.
After all, the junta is still detaining Mrs Suu Kyi, whose release Asean has been demanding for years, and several hundred other political prisoners. Moreover, the generals are yet to account for the people killed and injured in the repression of pro-democracy demonstrators in September and October _ and Asean must demand this.
As for the junta, it dealt Asean a stiff blow that is unforgettable for what amounted to lack of reflection in late 2005. Under pressure from Asean for more democratisation, it offered to let Foreign Minister Syed Hamid Jaafar Albar visit the country as an Asean envoy. That was on the eve of the Asean summit in Kuala Lumpur. Within days, during the summit itself, the generals extended the detention of Mrs Suu Kyi and, as it turned out, did not allow the Malaysian foreign minister into the country until the following March.
More than other states in the world, Asean knows how the generals in Naypidaw think. With their treatment of the United Nations special envoy Ibrahim Gambari, they have shown their insistence on staying in charge, and solving problems with the opposition in their own way.
The junta rejected the envoy's proposal for a three-way dialogue, let him see some ministers and Mrs Suu Kyi during the six-day visit, but kept their topmost leader, Senior General Than Shwe, out of reach.
Despite the perceived slight to Mr Gambari, however, it would be short-sighted to think the generals dismiss the importance of the UN altogether. As many UN envoys have found, the leadership plays along when it is expedient to them.
Hence, while Mr Gambari seemed to be in still waters last week, the UN special rapporteur for human rights, Paulo Sergio Pinheiro, announced that he had been invited to return to the country for the first time in four years.
How far Mr Pinheiro is allowed to do his work will be an indicator of the generals' regard for the world body.
While precedent gives ground to regard with scepticism the recent and ongoing developments in Burma, the positive reaction of Mrs Suu Kyi raises hope that this time there is more than image-building to the generals' offer.
Asean must work to ensure this and enlist the help of China and India, which will be in Singapore as the grouping's dialogue partners.
At the same time Asean should also brace for prodding from the European Union, which recently stepped up sanctions on Burma, and will be in Singapore to celebrate 30 years of dialogue with Asean.