A few weeks back, the Chiang Mai-based Shan Herald Agency for News (SHAN) reported an incident along the Sino-Burmese border involving the ambush of a delegation of Burmese military officials returning from a meeting with their Chinese counterparts just over the border.
The delegation spent the night in Panghsang, the headquarters of the 20,000-strong United Wa State Army (UWSA), one of the region's most powerful ethnic armies, which has been in negotiations with the Burmese junta about the nature of their future relationship, if any.
Burma and the Wa, many of whom were former foot soldiers for the now defunct Communist Party of Burma (CPB), entered into a cease-fire agreement in 1989 in exchange for Wa autonomy. The limited granting of self-rule has permitted the Wa to become stronger militarily. To finance their operations, they have been active in the production and trafficking of opium - and later methamphetamines. Indeed, these remain their main and most profitable commodities.
The relationship between the Wa and the Burmese junta has been resting on some very shaky ground for the past couple of years, as the junta has again demanded that all the ethnic armies put down their weapons and submit themselves to the command of the country's military. The junta wants them to become Border Guard Forces (BGF).
China has now stepped in, summoning the Burmese top brass and UWSA leader Bao Yu-xiang to Beijing for a series of consultations. Any all-out fighting between the Wa and the Burmese army could mean hundreds of thousands of starving refugees fleeing across the border into China, as well as into Thailand. The UWSA has three brigades along the Thai border administering over a sizeable population that has been forcibly relocated from the northern border.
According to SHAN, the Burmese delegation was attacked around sunset by an "unknown armed group" after it had left Panghsang for its unit's headquarters in Tangyan.
The ambush reported by SHAN highlights the difficulties of any initiative that aims to work towards a peaceful outcome. People familiar with the Wa and the Burmese in that rugged region of Burma know that it would not be too far-fetched to suggest that the military delegation may have been attacked by Wa forces. After all, they have hated each others for decades, even after they entered into the cease-fire agreement in 1989. Burmese government officials could not even enter Wa-controlled areas without being disarmed and escorted under armed guard.
But ever since Burmese security tsar General Khin Nyunt was ousted from power in October 2004, the junta has been on the case of the cease-fire groups, demanding that they surrender their weapons. The recent decision to back off from that demand may be tactical. It may give the Wa and other ethnic groups some breathing space, but no one seriously thinks this will last. Ever since the junta overran the headquarters of the Kokang-Chinese in August 2009, all other cease-fire groups, including powerful outfits such as the Wa and Kokang, have known that sooner or later their time would come.
Over recent months, there has appeared to be a sense of optimism from the international community. US Senator Jim Web is calling on Washington to be prepared to change its Burma policy if positive developments occur, while Kristalina Georgieva, the European Union's commissioner for international cooperation, humanitarian aid and crisis response, during her recent stopover in Bangkok said the Burmese are now serious about peace. Let's hope that she didn't just take the Burmese generals' word for it.
Today, the demand that the ethnic armies put down their weapons has quieted. Some attribute this change of rhetoric to Chinese government pressure. Others think the Burmese have got something new up their sleeves. Which wouldn't be surprising, given the history. It is likely that these positive gestures are merely a smokescreen for the Burmese government's real objective, which is to disband all the ethnic armies and bring the minorities under the mercy of the Burmese generals.
Given the fiercely independent nature of the junta, it is very unlikely that they would base their outlook and strategy solely on Beijing's "advice".
Thailand, on the other hand, must deal with Burma without losing sight of the big picture. This includes the handling of more refugees who are likely to flood over the Thai side of the border should the Burmese launch an all-out offensive against major groups like the UWSA and the Kachin Independence Army.