WHAT should one make of the sentences of death by hanging of the son-in-law of former Myanmar dictator Ne Win and his three grandsons? Was there really a coup attempt?
For one thing, it means General Than Shwe, the current strongman of Myanmar, wants to become an even stronger man, if that were possible. But he has to keep looking over his shoulder at other members of the ruling troika: vice-chairman Maung Aye and first secretary Khin Nyunt. It also means that the former strongman, ex-dictator General Ne Win, variously said to be either 92 or 94 years old, is apparently still capable of mustering a rabble of dissenters. And all these questions arise only because Gen Ne Win's family has lost no opportunity to enrich themselves. As their wealth grew, they developed political ambitions as well.
But strongmen rulers do not tolerate dissent well (and sometimes not at all). Gen Than Shwe did what the political science textbooks say he would do: crack down on Gen Ne Win's family. And so four of them were sentenced to death. By making an example of them, the message goes to the generals, brigadiers and colonels in the ruling junta: don't mess with Gen Than Shwe.
The 'ruling strongman versus ex-strongman' drama had been simmering on the back burner for several years in the economically-devastated country and would have gone on but for the fact that Gen Ne Win and his supporters started baiting Gen Than Shwe. So, just a few days before the sentences were handed down, the National Unity Party (NUP) - a political reincarnation of Gen Ne Win's Burma Socialist Programme Party that ruled till 1988 - suddenly came out with stinging criticism of the ruling military junta for mishandling the economy.
Everything the party said was, of course, true - that people are suffering from rising consumer prices and inflation, and that life is generally miserable. Of course, the irony is that Myanmar was one of South- east Asia's most dynamic economies in the 1950s, and it was Gen Ne Win's very rule that turned it into an economic disaster. By the time the present junta had worked on the economy, the country had become a basket case.
But the NUP went too far in calling for the emergence of a constitutionally elected government to solve the country's political and economic problems. Gen Than Shwe found the criticism from Gen Ne Win's supporters just too hard to swallow. On top of that, he was fed up with the bad behaviour of Gen Ne Win's family members, many of whom were involved in murky business partnerships with military officers in the ruling junta.
Many of those deals broke one law or the other, and everyone involved ought to have been charged a long time ago. But they were tolerated. The latest provocation was just too much to bear. That Gen Ne Win should again be attempting to exercise power through the NUP, while his children incite some junta officers to rebellion, was, in Gen Than Shwe's eyes, more than any mortal strongman could bear.
So thus it was that on Sept 26, a court in Yangon sentenced Gen Ne Win's son-in-law Aye Zaw Win, 54, and the latter's three sons - Aye Ne Win, Kyaw Ne Win, and Zwe Ne Win, all in their 20s - to death by hanging for high treason. They were accused of attempting to recruit senior military officers to stage a coup earlier this year.
Aye Zaw Win is the husband of Sandar Win, the wealthy favourite daughter of Gen Ne Win. He is thought to be mainly interested in making money; but Sandar is known to harbour political ambitions, and may have even seen a role for herself in promoting her father's questionable legacy. So her husband may have paid a price for her ambitions. The junta then turned on its own unruly ranks. Four senior military officers, including two regional commanders, were sacked for their involvement with the Ne Win clan.
With the threat from the Ne Win clan and their political supporters neutralised, Gen Than Shwe now controls power unmolested. But his problems are not over. Jockeying for power continues within the ruling troika, along with vice-chairman Maung Aye and first secretary Khin Nyunt. Gen Khin Nyunt is Ne Win's protege and is seen as a rival to Gen Maung Aye. Moreover, Gen Khin Nyunt was the man who personally held endless rounds of talks with National League for Democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, and he is believed to be leaning towards a settlement with her more than his troika colleagues. With Ms Suu Kyi demanding greater democracy, and rivalries running through the ranks of the junta, Yangon is not a place a strongman can sleep easy at night.
The writer is an Indochina specialist based in Bangkok.