General Khin Nyunt visits Bangkok today as part of his familiarisation tour of fellow member countries of Asean after his appointment last August as prime minister of Burma.
Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and Gen Khin Nyunt are no strangers. They have met many times before, and several times since Gen Khin Nyunt was named prime minister. The key issue likely to be discussed when the two meet again will be the lack of progress on the Burmese government's ''road map to democracy''.
Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai has been at the centre of the region's attempts to encourage Rangoon to release opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest and introduce economic and political change. Thailand established the Bangkok Process as a forum of Asian and European ministers designed to support the Burmese government's plans to introduce political reform.
The Burmese leaders have rebuffed Thailand's support in recent months, pulling out of a second Bangkok Process meeting at short notice. But the real issue to be discussed when the two prime ministers meet will be the Burmese government's failure to keep its promise to release Ms Suu Kyi and include her party, the National League for Democracy, in the National Convention which began meeting last month to draft a new constitution.
''Unfortunately, Burma's future lies in the hands of only one man,'' said a western diplomat based in Rangoon. ''And that is not the prime minister.''
There is no doubt now that Burma's paramount leader Senior General Than Shwe is calling all the shots. Gen Khin Nyunt cannot do anything without Gen Than Shwe's approval. The senior general has become known throughout the army and the nation as a whole as the ''king''.
Gen Than Shwe has reportedly told UN envoy Razali Ismail on several occasions that ''Aung San Suu Kyi is only one person in 52 million and her views cannot hold the country to ransom''. In fact, it is the senior general who is the single obstacle to change in Burma.
Gen Khin Nyunt understands the need for the national reconciliation process to involve Ms Suu Kyi and the pro-democracy parties. But under the orders of Gen Than Shwe, the National Convention reconvened without the participation of Ms Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy, or NLD.
There is no doubt that there are major differences between the top generals over how to deal with the pro-democracy leader and her party, according to Asian diplomats.
Ever since the Asean summit in Bali last October, Gen Khin Nyunt and Foreign Minister Win Aung have assured their neighbours and Mr Razali that the National Convention would be inclusive and Ms Suu Kuyi would be released before the convention opened.
''Aung San Suu Kyi will be fully free, able to meet other members of her party, and conduct normal political activities before the National Convention convenes,'' Win Aung told the Bangkok Post in an exclusive interview in Phuket in February. ''The NLD will also be allowed to re-open their offices before the convention gets under way.''
Burma's leaders are now trying to blame the NLD for not participating in the National Convention. The NLD leaders were just too uncompromising and intransigent, a senior military intelligence officer said.
''They should have agreed to participate,'' he said. ''They could always walk out again later; that would actually strengthen their position.''
But Burma's opposition leaders dismiss this interpretation and insist they had compromised and done everything they could to clear the way for the NLD to attend the National Convention. It was the military that reneged on its promises, a senior opposition figure said.
Ms Suu Kyi even wrote a personal letter to Gen Than Shwe, according to western diplomats in Rangoon, suggesting that they ''turn a new page'' and move forward using the road map as a basis for discussion.
In early May, the detained NLD leader was told indirectly by Gen Khin Nyunt that everyone, including Gen Than Shwe, had agreed in principle to Ms Suu Kyi's release and the opening of her party's divisional offices before the National Convention convened on May 17.
But only days later, the regime's negotiators told her the deal was off because Gen Than Shwe had changed his mind. The three envoys continued to ask the NLD leader to participate in the convention, meeting with her on three successive days before the NLD central executive made its final decision not to attend.
While the government-controlled media continue to insist that the National Convention marks a significant and historic moment in Burmese history, neither Gen Than Shwe or Gen Khin Nyunt was at the ceremonial opening session. Diplomats in Rangoon believe one of them was originally scheduled to give the opening speech. It would appear that neither wanted to be associated too closely with it _ or be seen publicly to own the process.
Given Gen Khin Nyunt's close participation in the process to date, convincing ethnic minority groups that have declared a ceasefire with Rangoon to attend, his absence may have been his way of distancing himself from the National Convention.
''Khin Nyunt does not want to discuss the progress of the National Convention nor have the National Convention used to criticise him,'' said a western diplomat based in Rangoon. Nor is the prime minister keen to answer questions about Ms Suu Kyi's continued house arrest.
His message to Prime Minister Thaksin, as it was to Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi earlier this week, is that the National Convention has started and the region should defer judgment until it has finished its work.
Until something emerges from the National Convention, nothing is likely to happen in Rangoon. It is even possible that the regime is considering disengaging from the international community and Mr Razali's role as a facilitator may also be in danger. Gen Than Shwe has always been xenophobic in the extreme and may now opt for shutting the door to the international community even further.
This political stalemate is likely to continue while Gen Than Shwe has his way. While there is growing resentment within the army over his attempt to establish himself as a new Burmese monarch, this is unlikely to lead to a power struggle to oust him. The pragmatists including the prime minister who favour involving Ms Suu Kyi in the national reconciliation process and engaging in a dialogue with the international community are in retreat and worried about their future.
''There is extreme unease and nervousness within the senior ranks of military intelligence,'' said a UN official who regularly deals with the military. ''It seems everyone is running for cover in anticipation of a backlash against them.''
Recently Gen Khin Nyunt, who is still nominally head of military intelligence, warned his senior intelligence officers to be careful as he could no longer protect them.
One senior military intelligence officer confided recently that he suspected that his phones were being bugged. With this kind of paranoia now prevalent in the senior ranks of the army and military intelligence, it is unlikely that there will be any significant political progress in the near future, and certainly no early end to Ms Suu Kyi's detention.
This is only going to lead to increased pressure from Burma's neighbours to release the pro-democracy leader and implement some political change. Washington is certain to consider even tougher economic sanctions against the military regime. Life is going to get even tougher for most of the country's 52 million people, and in the end there is only one person to blame: Senior General Than Shwe.