Shadows in Yangon
source : The Straitstimes (16-03-02) -Editorial
THE tempest in Yangon last week, which
came complete with coup whispers and arrests in high places, would seem characteristic of Myanmar intrigue.
It would go like this: The continuing power tussle among the ruling troika of the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) - General Than Shwe, General Maung Aye and Lieutenant-General Khin Nyunt - has been spiced up with the entrenched privilege of former leader Ne Win's family.
The SPDC's umbilical links to the powerful family are strong, perhaps impossible to sever. General Ne Win's relations have been restive of late, fearing diminution of their influence by the rise of newer elites and the 'gentrification' of the opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi's cause.
The SPDC generals, regional garrison commanders and police chiefs are constantly having to adjust to the shifting tides of dominance and decline. The talk in Yangon, to the extent it is accurate, is that the week's events have strengthened the hand of army chief Maung Aye at the expense of military intelligence chief Khin Nyunt. The former is described as a hardliner who is impervious to the entreaties of Ms Aung San Suu Kyi's supporters. The latter, said to be a reformer, is all for Myanmar regaining international respectability through observing certain norms.
One way is by keeping up negotiations with Ms Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD), to undo the damage done through the 'stolen election' of 1990. The NLD had won handily but was prevented by the generals from claiming office. It then gets a little complicated: The government account of the arrests last week of Gen Ne Win's son-in-law Aye Zaw Win and his three sons was that they had been engaged in a plot with some military figures to set up an alternative regime. The chiefs of the air force and national police and two garrison commanders were being questioned about their role.
Lt-Gen Khin Nyunt is believed to be close to the Ne Win clan, so his espousal of Myanmar's rehabilitation would be inconsistent with the objective of the alleged conspiracy, which is to maintain the military's grip. If the official version bears out, Gen Maung Aye will have added on muscle. But there has been no intimation so far that Lt-Gen Khin Nyunt has suffered a downgrade.
Permutations of who are up, who are down and who have been sidelined are important for the clues they provide about the fate of the tentative moves to improve Myanmar's acceptability to the world at large, not least its Asean allies. Power machinations such as seen last week may appear like a parlour game. To believe that would be to caricature unfairly a country which is making an effort, if a little feebly, to meet the expectations of its South-east Asian friends.
Myanmar owes them a debt of gratitude for sticking by it through its darkest days of condemnation by Western nations. At the weekend, its government made a point of declaring that there was no dissension among the SPDC's top leadership. Judgment is best reserved but, if true, it would be a mercy. It would mean democratisation remains on track. Asean should persevere with prodding Myanmar towards substantive reform.
Gen Than Shwe met Ms Aung San Suu Kyi in January in the most noteworthy reconciliation attempt so far, in a dialogue that began in late 2000. A European Union team on a fence-mending visit met Ms Aung San Suu Kyi yesterday. Myanmar has also been courting old allies such as Russia and Pakistan, aside from improving links with China and South-east Asia. The momentum must not be lost.