Power picture unclear as dust settles in Rangoon

Don Pathan/Supalak Ganjanakhundee
The Nation
August 27 2003

A shake-up in the hierarchy of Burma's ruling junta has brought a number of rising new stars into the decision-making arena but it remains unclear how much power, if any, intelligence chief General Khin Nyunt has been stripped of.

Officially, Khin Nyunt was assigned the post of prime minister with the aim of making the government more effective and efficient, according to a government press statement.

As the prime minister, Khin Nyunt is expected to continue his role of front man for the ruling regime in its dealings with the international community.

Some regard him as a pragmatist who understands the need to engage the international community.

But because he is the only Burmese general foreigners talk to, there is a tendency to take his handshake as an indication that he sees things their way, explained one Bangkok-based diplomat.

For Thailand, Khin Nyunt's appointment has given Bangkok a clearer point of focus for efforts to sell its road map for peace and reconciliation. However, this doesn't mean Thailand's chances of getting its plan adopted have improved.

Following the reshuffle, Khin Nyunt is no longer a member of the 12-strong State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), the highest decision-making body of the regime.

The SPDC is similar in status to the politburo of a communist party but the line of command in Burma is much more complicated, with certain individuals holding overlapping positions.

For the head of the SPDC, Gen Than Shwe, the shake-up marks the first time that he has shed some of his responsibility but it does not necessarily mean his grip on power has been loosened. Since 1992, Than Shwe has been head of state and chairman of the SPDC, the most powerful position in the country.

Khin Nyunt and Than Shwe are no strangers to drastic shake-ups, although such changes are rare in Burma's politics. The two cooperated in the ousting of Gen Saw Maung in 1991, the then chief of the junta, when he promised to hand over power to Aung San Suu Kyi after her landslide election victory.

But it would be premature to jump to the conclusion that Khin Nyunt's removal from the SPDC amounts to a major loss of power. He still heads Burma's military intelligence, a very powerful organisation .

The Director of Defence Service Intelligence (DDSI) and the Office of Strategic Studies, the two major agencies he helped set up and fine-tune, remain under his control.

The organisations are made up of Burma's best and brightest. They include the likes of Colonel Hla Min, the junta's point-man for public relations and dealing with the foreign media, Brig-General Thein Shwe, an air force commander who has quickly scaled Burma's power ladder, and Brig-Gen Kyaw Thein, the counter-narcotics chief .

Readings from the Thai intelligence community present no conclusive picture. One intelligence officer sees Khin Nyunt's removal from the SPDC as a big career setback and his prime ministerial post as "a kick upstairs".

Other have pointed out that the SPDC is now made up mostly of hardened commanders with strong track-records on the battlefield. There are no military intelligence top brass in the new SPDC line up.

These "field" commanders include Lt-General Ye Myint, who is responsible for the Mandalay Division and the rest of Burma's northwest frontier, and Lt-Gen Maung Bo, who looks after Special Operation - 4, which includes Mon and Karen states, and Tenasserim Division.

Among the rising stars seen as "agents of change" in the reshuffle are Lt-Gen Soe Win, who replaced Khin Nyunt as the Secretary 1 of the SPDC, and Lt-Gen Thura Shwe Man, the current armed forces chief-of-staff who some say is being groomed to become the new army chief, replacing Gen Maung Aye.

A third up-and-coming appointee is Lt-Gen Maung Bo.

All three are in their 50s, which makes them youngsters in Burma's ageing power elite.

Analysts said they have been put on the "fast-track" by Than Shwe as part of his strategy to secure his own clique amid rivalry between Maung Aye and Khin Nyunt.

While Khin Nyunt is prime minister, it is still not clear just how much leeway he'll have in running the cabinet and government-related affairs, or in dealing with groups such as the United Wa State Army, Kachin Independent Army and the New Mon State Party.

His appointment has been greeted warmly by the Thai government but others say the verdict is still out as to what this reshuffle will mean for Burma.