Burma's top military leaders are planning a massive shake-up in the army and government. The major changes are expected to emerge at the end of the quarterly meeting of the country's governing State Peace and Development Council or SPDC. The top military ruler, General Than Shwe, is also expected to stand down as the junta leaders pass power to the next generation of generals. The country's top 12 generals are currently meeting in Rangoon to discuss their plans and strategy for the future. The meeting comes at a particularly crucial time for the military as the National Convention prepares to complete the draft of the new constitution before the end of the year. It is likely to be put to a referendum, with fresh elections being held within the next 12 months.
The planned changes are the most dramatic since the army seized power 17 years ago. The top general is reportedly planning to give up at least one of the three key posts he holds as chairman of the SPDC, supreme commander of the army, and defence minister.
''We expect Than Shwe to relinquish his position as defence minister in the forthcoming reshuffle,'' said a senior Southeast Asian diplomat who has regular contact with the Burmese regime. Gen Than Shwe recently told the visiting Thai army's supreme commander, General Chaisit Shinawatra, that he would retire soon and that General Thura Shwe Mann would take over as the country's leader in due course.
There are increasing doubts about the senior general's health. Six months ago he had a very mild stroke, but has recovered from that. Dr Kyaw Myint, the health minister and Gen Than Shwe's personal physician, visits him every day to monitor his medical condition, according to family friends. A Singaporean doctor also recently visited Rangoon to attend to him, according to Burmese military sources.
Time appears to be catching up with the 75-year-old general, say diplomats who have recently met the Burmese leader. Gen Than Shwe is known to suffer from hypertension and is a diabetic. ''He's subject to frequent diabetic rages when his sugar levels get out of control,'' a Burmese army doctor said. But many Burmese analysts believe much of the old man's deteriorating health is largely a psychological illness, the result of a depression caused by the increasing public revelations of his wife and children's rabid corruption.
He was particularly shocked when, during his trial for corruption, the former agriculture minister, Nyunt Tin, disclosed that he had presented Gen Than Shwe's wife and their daughter with five diamonds, each worth US$1.5 million. ''He was so shocked by these corruption revelations and the extent of his daughter's business dealings that he took to his bed with depression for days,'' a Burmese source said.
This may have prompted the senior general to withdraw from the public eye and take a back seat for the time being. Although he may even retire as the SPDC chairman, he is unlikely to give up the post of supreme commander of the army. ''Even if Than Shwe officially retires he will not give up his power. Instead he'll remain the grey eminence behind the throne, along the lines of the Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping in the years before his death,'' said Burmese analyst Win Min, based in Chiang Mai.
Gen Thura Shwe Mann is tipped to replace Gen Maung Aye as the army's commander-in-chief, paving the way for him to take the reigns of power sometime next year. And Gen Maung Aye may well become the SPDC chairman.
There is no doubt that at present Gen Than Shwe is taking a back seat. ''Than Shwe has withdrawn from involvement in the day-to-day government of the country and Maung Aye has effectively taken over the former prime minister Khin Nyunt's role of running Burma,'' said a senior Asian diplomat based in Rangoon.
In recent weeks, it has been Gen Maung Aye who has dominated the front pages of the government-controlled newspapers, with Gen Than Shwe increasingly less prominent. ''Maung Aye's mug is everywhere in the Burmese media _ a clear sign that he has strengthened his influence and control within the junta,'' according to a Rangoon-based Western diplomat.
But others believe this is only a ploy by the senior general until he is ready to resume his central role and become the country's first president under the new constitution that is expected to be adopted early next year. ''Than Shwe is only giving Maung Aye enough rope to hang himself,'' said a Southeast Asian diplomat.
''The National Convention will have drawn up a new constitution by the end of the year and it will be put to a referendum in early 2006,'' said a senior Chinese diplomat.
And new elections are likely before the end of next year. Beijing believes Gen Than Shwe will stand down next year and become the civilian president. ''He wants to be president for life,'' a senior military source close to him said.
Gen Thura Shwe Mann is scheduled to take over as head of the army and replace Gen Than Shwe as head of the junta, according to a senior Chinese diplomat.
When that time comes, he will grant a mass amnesty to all political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi, Khin Nyunt, and the former military intelligence officers who were sentenced to hundreds of years in prison for corruption and economic crimes earlier this year, according to Asian diplomats.
To prepare for these momentous political changes, Burma's top leaders are planning to hand over control of the military to the next generation of army officers. Gen Thura Shwe Mann will head the new triumvirate of military leaders, supported by Prime Minister Gen Soe Win and Secretary One, Gen Thein Sein.
''This is the new generation of military leaders who are being readied to take over power,'' according to senior Indian diplomats who deal with Rangoon. But, they warn, this group of generals lacks the manners and intelligence of their superiors. ''These men are uncouth, uneducated and only know how to bark orders,'' said a former Indian diplomat who has been based in Rangoon previously and knows the new generals well.
This new generation of leaders is likely to be just as preoccupied as their predecessors with holding on to power. And they are certain to be unprepared to compromise with either the pro-democracy parties or the ethnic minorities.
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