Burma's military rulers are preparing for a significant shake-up of the army and government. Major changes to the cabinet, the ruling State Peace Development Council and the powerful regional commanders are expected in coming weeks.
The changes are the result of a power struggle between the top two generals as they try to prepare the military for the next phase in the country's national reconciliation process.
In recent months, Burma's second most important general, Maung Aye, has taken over the running of the army and government administration. Generals Maung Aye and Thura Shwe Mann have taken over the day-to-day government while Senior General Than Shwe has taken a back seat, according to a senior police officer.
Gen Maung Aye holds a strategy meeting every morning with the prime minister, foreign minister, interior minister and labour minister, according to a Burmese government source. ''There they plot how to handle the international community,'' a Western diplomat told the Bangkok Post on condition of anonymity.
But that does not mean Gen Than Shwe has abdicated _ he still approves all key decisions _ but he has withdrawn from the immediate day-to-day running of the country. Diplomats in Rangoon believe he feels above the mundane matters and only needs to deal with crucial concerns _ the national reconciliation process and possible political reform.
Although Gen Than Shwe may be closeted away, he is far from out of touch with international developments. He surfs the internet every morning for several hours, according to sources close to him.
The coming shake-up of Burma's military administration and government _ perhaps the biggest overhaul since the military seized power 17 years ago _ will only proceed when the top two generals have sorted out their differences. Although this power struggle is more a matter of influence and control than a divide over strategy, Gen Maung Aye does seem to favour a more conciliatory approach to the international community and the pro-democracy parties, including detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
The first change will probably be a major cabinet reshuffle, with Prime Minister Soe Win being replaced, according to Burmese government sources.
Although rumours of Lieutenant-General Soe Win's demise have been circulating for months, he is almost certain to be removed some time next month, according to a senior Southeast Asian diplomat who closely follows Burmese developments.
When the Bangkok Post first reported Lt-Gen Soe Win's imminent fall several weeks ago, the prime minister joked with cabinet members that the international press would be more than surprised to know he spent most of his time on the golf course, according to government sources.
The prime minister has frequently confided to family friends that he was effectively powerless. ''The only power he has is to pass sheets of paper from his subordinates up to the top two generals,'' said a Western diplomat in Rangoon.
Lt-Gen Soe Win's appointment was always a stop gap measure and he was to be the scapegoat if anything went wrong. From Gen Maung Aye's point of view, the prime minister has failed to convince the ethnic groups to fully back the constitutional process and he has been a poor ambassador abroad.
As far as the international community is concerned, the prime minister's main drawback is his role in the vicious attack on Ms Suu Kyi and her entourage in northern Burma on May 30, 2003.
The pro-democracy movement in exile has accused Lt-Gen Soe Win continuously of orchestrating the attack on Gen Than Shwe's instructions, and there is now increasing evidence he was on hand to make sure the attack went according to plan. A few days before the assault, he was in the area ordering the local commanders to provide the saffron robes to the goons who actually carried out the attack, according to a senior military officer on duty in the area when the attack took place.
Many opposition leaders remain convinced it was an assassination attempt. Former military intelligence officers have detailed and comprehensive files on the attack, which the top brass fear may be made public, a retired military officer told the Bangkok Post recently.
For Gen Maung Aye, Lt-Gen Soe Win's replacement would help the regime put the incident behind it. It would also mean Gen Than Shwe would lose one of his most loyal supporters.
Who replaces the prime minister though is not as important as the pending shake-up in the SPDC and the regional commanders. Sources in Rangoon believe the real struggle is over who is to become the Rangoon regional commander when General Myint Swe relinquishes the post to concentrate on his appointment as the head of the new army intelligence unit.
Diplomats in Rangoon believe Gen Than Shwe wants to appoint his personal assistant, Major-General Ne Win. But Gen Maung Aye is adamantly opposed to this because the young Maj-Gen Ne Win has had no real military experience. More importantly, Gen Maung Aye is quietly trying to ensure that the regional commanders are loyal to him.
While Gen Than Shwe continues to run the show, the direction of any political reform is relatively predictable.
The National Convention drafting the new constitution is in its final stages. Representatives have been told the convention will go into recess in April for the Buddhist New Year festival of Thingyan (Songkran). Diplomats in Rangoon believe it will reconvene for a short final session in May. ''The constitution is effectively written and just waiting to be rubber stamped,'' according to an Asian diplomat based in Rangoon. The regime may even hold the promised referendum by the end of the year.
The next few weeks could prove to be a crucial crossroads for Burma's democratic hopes. But the signs so far do not bode well for the country's democracy parties and Ms Suu Kyi. It is unlikely she will be released before the referendum on the new constitution.
The international community hope that after the National Convention finishes its work the political parties and the ethnic groups may be invited to be involved in the final drafting of the constitution _ the National Convention is only meant to drawing up the guidelines.
What room there will be for manoeuvre or even whether there will be any negotiations with the NLD and Ms Suu Kyi may depend on the outcome of the power struggle between Gen Maung Aye and Gen Than Shwe.
There have been growing signs recently that Gen Maung Aye may be far more flexible than Gen Than Shwe.
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