Burma's military leaders have been at pains in recent weeks to prove they are united and not in the midst of a power struggle.
Reports of murder and mayhem have fuelled rumours and speculation of coups and gunbattles within the country's secretive military leadership. But over the last two weeks since the rumours erupted, the state-run media have been inundated with pictures of the top army commanders gathered together and apparently at ease with each other.
Burma's top general, Than Shwe, and Lieutenant-General Thein Sein, in charge of the National Convention drafting a new constitution, have dominated the press, although the number two general, Maung Aye, and the prime minister, Soe Win, have been far less visible.
``The situation in Rangoon is normal, if you ask me,'' the Burmese ambassador to Thailand, Myo Myint, told the Bangkok Post last week.
But the situation in Rangoon is far from normal. The intense power struggle which led to the purge of former prime minister Khin Nyunt four months ago is far from resolved. Now it is a struggle for power between the top two generals, General Than Shwe and General Maung Aye.
``It's a struggle for supremacy,'' according to one Asian diplomat based in Rangoon.
In recent months, Gen Than Shwe has been trying to sideline Gen Maung Aye. Several key Than Shwe supporters in the ruling military council, the State Peace and Development Council, or SPDC, have been reporting directly to the senior general and not passing papers and reports to Gen Maung Aye, the army commander-in-chief, according to diplomats in Rangoon. At the same time, Gen Maung Aye has been encroaching on the prime minister's turf and taken on many of his responsibilities, said a Burmese businessman.
At present, the real battle involves a series of planned major changes to the cabinet, the SPDC and the powerful regional commanders. ``Six ministers including the prime minister have already been told that they are to be replaced in the near future,'' according to a source in the Burmese government.
The expected changes are likely to mainly involve the economic ministries. Some of the existing ministers are currently under investigation for corruption, including the minister for post and telecommunications, Brigadier-General Thein Zaw. He is now under scrutiny because of a number of major contracts involving massive kickbacks. ``He has fallen foul of the top because he has broken the unwritten law prohibiting excessive corruption,'' according to one Burmese businessman.
One of the contracts under review is a proposed deal with the major Chinese mobile phone company, ZTE. Under this contract, the Chinese would provide a $150 million (5.78 billion baht) loan for the infrastructure to provide 300,000 phone lines. This is more than 10 times the real cost of the project, according to industry experts. In a ZTE contract for a million phone lines in another Southeast Asian country the cost was $30 million (1.16 billion baht).
``The delay in any official announcements about the changes probably means Than Shwe and Maung Aye cannot agree on who should get the key posts,'' said a senior Asian diplomat who has dealt with Burma for many years.
The struggle between the two also involves changes to the SPDC and the regional commanders. Many of the older generals are likely to be retired. Key Than Shwe supporters, the four chiefs of the Bureau of Special Operations _ Lieutenant-Generals Ye Myint, Aung Htwe, Khin Maung Than and Maung Bo _ are expected to be replaced, according to a former Asian military commander who knows the Burmese regime well.
``Maung Aye does not want to openly confront the senior general, but does want to reduce his power base,'' said a senior Southeast Asian diplomat who closely follows events in Rangoon. When the changes are agreed, many Asian diplomats believe the balance of power will have swung Gen Maung Aye's way, although not entirely.
Gen Maung Aye is also anxious to have his people take control of what he sees as the key regional commander posts: Rangoon and the southern, southwestern and southeastern commands. ``He will only feel safe if his supporters are in place in and around the capital,'' said a former Thai military intelligence officer.
But at the same time as the two top men struggle for control, a transfer of power is also taking place within the military, with the next generation of generals being given the reins. It is a slow and uncertain process that began with former prime minister Khin Nyunt's arrest and the dismantling of the former military intelligence branch.
Lieutenant-General Thura Shwe Mann, the chief of staff, has taken a pivotal role in the new emerging administrative and military structure. Previously he had been seen as something of a recluse. But in recent months, especially since General Khin Nyunt's fall from grace, Lt-Gen Thura Shwe Mann has taken an active role in political matters. When Gen Than Shwe went to India, Lt-Gen Thura Shwe Mann and the new prime minister, Lieutenant-General Soe Win, were left in control of the country.
It was Lt-Gen Thura Shwe Mann with Lt-Gen Soe Win who warned Burma's businessmen not to be involved in corruption. He also gave them two weeks to report any dealings they may have had with Lt-Gen Khin Nyunt. He was reportedly furious when no one owned up. Since then he has been meeting foreign diplomats in Rangoon, often in place of the new prime minister. ``He exudes extreme confidence,'' said an Asian diplomat who met him recently in Rangoon.
The key countries in the region which closely follow political developments in Burma _ China, India, Japan and Thailand _ are all convinced Lt-Gen Thura Shwe Mann is the man to watch. All these countries have been working hard since Gen Khin Nyunt's removal to establish a strong relationship with the army chief. ``He has clearly emerged as the new number three,'' said one diplomat in Rangoon.
The former Rangoon commander, Lieutenant-General Myint Swe, who has been appointed to form the new intelligence branch under the direct control of the army, has begun to emerge as fourth in the military hierarchy. He is known to be a Than Shwe supporter.
Everything now appears to be on hold until after the National Convention reconvenes this Thursday. Much may depend on how smoothly the proceedings run. The military leaders appear to be nervous. They have rounded up many of the ethnic leaders in the days before the Convention is to open.
Gen Than Shwe has now decided to draft the constitution as quickly as possible, according to sources in Rangoon. The plan is to put it to a referendum before the end of the year, and before the Asean leaders summit in Kuala Lumpur.
``Than Shwe knows that to avoid Asean pressure for political reform, Rangoon must offer some concession before the summit, otherwise Burma's presidency of the organisation in 2006 is going to be even more contentious,'' said a senior European diplomat who has close ties to Rangoon.
The senior general may not yet have fully developed his strategy for Burma's political future, but if there is a referendum on the constitution later this year, Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the opposition National League for Democracy, may be released from house arrest shortly afterwards and elections held in 2006.
For that to happen, the power struggle within the military would have to finally be resolved and the transfer of power to the new military leaders completed.
In the meantime, the struggle for power and influence between the top two generals will only increase uncertainty and tension in Rangoon.
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