International pressure on Burma's leaders to free Aung San Suu Kyi is bound to increase now it appears that UN envoy Razali Ismail's latest mission to Rangoon failed to produce any movement in the country's stalled dialogue process. The focus will now shift to the Asean leaders' summit in Bali this week, when new Prime Minister Khin Nyunt will outline further details of his plans to introduce democracy.
``Asean's credibility, Asean's image, Asean's international standing could be affected if we are not seen to be looking at the situation in Myanmar [Burma],'' the organisation's secretary-general Ong Keng Yong said last week.
Although the issue of Burma is not on the formal agenda, there is no doubt it will figure prominently throughout the summit. It will certainly be at the centre of all General Khin Nyunt's bilateral discussions.
His very first meeting will be with outgoing Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. He is likely to be given a very hard time by the Malaysian leader, who is irate, according to sources in Kuala Lumpur, at the Burmese leaders' failure to introduce even a small measure of political and economic reform.
``Malaysia has backed Myanmar for many years, defended them on the international stage; but instead of listening to the prime minister's advice, they have snubbed him,'' said a senior government official. ``Our leader is unlikely to mince his words when he meets Prime Minister Khin Nyunt.''
International concern about Burma has been heightened by the UN envoy's apparent failure to revive the dialogue process between Burma's military rulers and pro-democracy leader Suu Kyi during his visit to Rangoon last week.
Mr Razali though says he is not despondent. ``Prime Minister Khin Nyunt is trying to move the dialogue process on,'' he said. ``But you can't expect dramatic results. All my visits cannot be measured on the basis of democratic results. It must be seen as a step-by-step approach.''
The key priority both for the UN envoy and the Asean countries is to find ways to help Gen Khin Nyunt break Burma's prolonged political deadlock. The opposition leader told Mr Razali she was prepared to work with the new prime minister and his ``road map to democracy'', though there would be conditions to that participation.
All leaders of Mrs Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy would have to be freed _ they have been under house arrest for more than four months, ever since the violent attack on Mrs Suu Kyi's car and supporters by armed pro-government protestors in the north of the country on May 30, which left several people dead _ the NLD's office would have to be reopened and party workers should be allowed to resume normal political activities without fear of harassment or arrest by the authorities.
Mrs Suu Kyi is demanding justice for the victims of the May 30 attack and a thorough investigation into what happened and who was involved. But diplomats believe that while the opposition leader is adamant that the incident cannot be brushed aside or forgotten, she is prepared not to allow it to stand in the way of serious political talks.
The main problem is Burma's top generals are either not prepared, or not willing, to negotiate with the opposition leader. ``They are just not ready to move,'' a western diplomat said. ``It seems the top still hasn't agreed on what to do.''
Gen Khin Nyunt told Mr Razali that he needed more time to be able to prepare for political change. ``We need some time,'' said Burma's Foreign Minister Khin Maung Win. ``The government has announced its seven-stage road map and is working on it already. It is the blueprint for the country's future.''
Reconvening the National Convention is a central part of the prime minister's plans. The National Convention was established more than 10 years ago to draw up a new constitution, but has not met since 1996 after the National League for Democracy walked out, accusing the military authorities of not allowing a free debate or discussion and simply using it to rubber stamp decisions that had already been taken by the generals.
The UN envoy discussed the issue of the structure and composition of the National Convention with the prime minister during his visit. ``I stressed the need to get all political parties, including the NLD, involved in the National Convention and other related steps to the road map,'' he said.
The crucial issue for the region and the international community is whether Burma's generals, especially Khin Nyunt and Than Shwe, are prepared to give Mrs Suu Kyi and her NLD a central role in the national reconciliation process.
``Khin Nyunt is pressing on with his plans and has decided he cannot deal with the Lady,'' said a source in Rangoon close to the prime minister.
It is now up to the Asian leaders in Bali to convince the Burmese regime that it must include the opposition leader and her party in the national reconciliation process, including the preparation for the National Convention. If they are excluded from the process, the road map will lack any credibility. That is the message the Asian leaders must stress Gen Khin Nyunt outlines the details of his road map.