The rise of hardliners in Burma is bad news for anyone hoping for national reconciliation and participatory government in the impoverished country. As an immediate neighbour with some leverage, Thailand must show the way in dealing with the new leadership.
Gen Khin Nyunt, removed as prime minister and the head of military intelligence on Tuesday, had brokered most ceasefire agreements with ethnic minorities, and favoured a political role for Aung San Suu Kyi, the charismatic opposition leader.
As tensions mounted in Burma on Monday, a delegation of the Karen National Union, the last major ethnic group yet to sign a ceasefire agreement with the junta, was on its way to a new round of talks in Rangoon.
The appointment of Lt Gen Soe Win as prime minister is expected to change all this. The former air defence chief is a protege of Senior General Than Shwe, the chairman of the State Peace and Development Council who is known to oppose any political role for Ms Suu Kyi. Ethnic leaders, many of whom are personally committed to Gen Khin Nyunt, do not trust the senior general.
Some were thinking of withdrawing from the national convention that was to resume the drafting of a constitution next month. Critics have dismissed the convention as a sham because it excluded Ms Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy, which won the 1990 elections by a landslide.
The removal of Gen Khin Nyunt has also raised concerns for the safety of Ms Suu Kyi and her deputy Tin Oo, both of whom have been under house arrest since May 30 last year, their detention engineered by hardliners.
Kofi Annan, the United Nations secretary general, appealed to the Burmese authorities to release them ``without further delay''. The UN chief also called on the generals to ``remain committed to the process of national reconciliation and democratisation''.
Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra can help by opting for pressure rather than accommodation. The leverage he can apply lies in the controversial credit line of four billion baht that his government has extended to the junta in Rangoon for infrastructural development The credit was extended on condition that the materials are bought in Thailand and that the loans be repaid within two years at an interest rate of 3%.
The controversy centres on a 600-million-baht loan that the Export-Import Bank of Thailand has approved for Burma to enable its purchase of a broadband satellite system from a company belonging to the prime minister's family. The bank has admitted disbursing 338 million baht to date but it is not clear if this has benefitted the company. To press for constructive change in Burma, the prime minister could order a stop to any further disbursement of the credit line.
The prime minister should also drop Burma from the economic co-operation strategy he initiated last year. The plan dramatically expands the tariff-free privileges on imports from immediate neighbours. Under the plan, Burma's tariff-free exports increase to about 300 items from 72, Cambodia to 249 from 48 and Laos to 150 from 26.
He should also persuade other member states in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to withhold economic co-operation with Burma until their commitment to political reform is shown. As a group, Asean must make clear that a Burma uncommitted to reform cannot chair the grouping in 2006 as scheduled.
The squeeze on economic co-operation however must not extend to humanitarian issues. Help to fight life battles like HIV/Aids must continue.
While stepping up economic pressures, Thailand must raise its guard at the long border with Burma . The rise of hardliners in Rangoon increases the potential for conflict with ethnic groups in the region spilling over into Thailand, including shelling, hot pursuit or flight of armed combatants and civilian refugees.
Until the new leadership in Rangoon proves that it is committed to desirable change, the prime minister must resist any temptation to rally to them. Any telephone contact or visit would be taken as recognition. The mistake made in 1988 by Gen Chavalit Yongchaiyuth cannot be repeated. The change in Rangoon is an opportunity for Thailand, and Asean, to come clean by putting people before private interests.