Though not unexpected, the Oct 18 removal of 65-year-old Burmese Prime Minister Khin Nyunt may exacerbate the infighting within Burma's ruling elite, with undesirable consequences for its neighbours. Thailand, for its part, must be more cautious, but sincere, in its offer to help Burma attain a national reconciliation and solve its longstanding political problems.
Prior to the arrest of General Khin Nyunt, many Burma watchers had been predicting for weeks an impending showdown between him and the hardliners within the governing State Peace and Development Council (SPDC).
Burma's state-controlled radio and television announced his removal in a terse, brief statement the next day, saying that General Khin Nyunt was "permitted to retire for health reasons." Only a few people believe that this was the real reason, as this phrase has often been used in the past after the forced ouster of ministers and senior officers. Commented one Burmese exile: "If this is the reason for dismissal, then whoever appointed him should have been dismissed six years ago for the same reason."
He was referring to the most powerful man in Burma, the 71-year-old, fragile-looking SPDC chairman, Senior General Than Shwe. He, along with his right-hand man, General Maung Aye, the SPDC vice-chairman and the army commander, have of late been getting increasingly irritated by Khin Nyunt's "liberal" policies, especially since his appointment as prime minister on August 25, 2003.
After the appointment, Khin Nyunt didn't waste much time in introducing himself to the world as an "innovator". He fired his first salvo only five days later when, during an 80-minute speech, he announced a seven-point "road map" to democracy, plans for a new National Constitutional Convention and "free and fair" elections.
Some foreign "experts" came close to describing Khin Nyunt as a "liberator", as one who wanted to install a real democracy in Burma. But if they had been more careful in doing their homework, they might have reached a different conclusion. They would have discovered that he was a protege of the late dictator General Ne Win and was instrumental in suppressing the 1988 nationwide democracy uprising when he was a brigadier general.
And in his post as the military intelligence chief since 1984, Khin Nyunt created a sophisticated spying network, stretching even around the world. His men were embedded in many opposition organisations and his success was apparent in many press conferences where information on activities and future plans of the exiles was pretty accurate.
Several sources have claimed that Khin Nyunt, his loyalists, and some disgruntled middle-rank army commanders had actually planned a coup against Than Shwe, and that the removal was a pre-emptive action against him. And in fact a number of _ nobody knows exactly how many_ Khin Nyunt's people have been arrested.
Even if there were no plans for a coup, Than Shwe still had valid reasons to dispose of the prime minister _ primarily the corruption within military intelligence organisations of which Khin Nyunt was in charge for 20 years.
A Burmese dissident said Khin Nyunt was actually detained at Rangoon airport on October 18, after returning from Mandalay where he visited dozens of military intelligence and border trade officers who had been arrested earlier on the China-Burma border and were being detained for investigation in connection with corruption.
Another matter that jeopardised Khin Nyunt's place in the junta hierarchy was the seizure of about 600 kilogrammes of heroin from a boat in Ye township of Mon State on July 9. The heroin has allegedly been linked to some of his subordinates.
According to a reliable source, Burma's Foreign Minister Nyan Win said at a closed meeting with all ambassadors in Rangoon on October 21 that Khin Nyunt actually had resigned for health reasons, but that he also had to bear responsibility for a major recent incident of alleged corruption in northern Burma.
SOME NOTORIOUS FRIENDS
As the military intelligence chief since 1984, Khin Nyunt was able to persuade 17 armed ethnic groups to make verbal ceasefire agreements with the regime, by granting them full or partial autonomy. He actually created, protected and did business with a number of ethnic ceasefire group leaders who allegedly got rich and powerful from the illicit drug trade spread from Burma throughout the world.
He didn't seem to mind being seen and photographed with warlords such as Pau Yu Chang of the United Wa State Army (UWSA), Sai Lin of the Myanmar National Alliance Army and Kokang leader Phone Kyar Chin.
The notorious fugitive drug kingpin Wei Hsueh-kang, after being sentenced to death on drug trafficking charges, somehow managed to escape from Thailand and settled with his brothers in Burma, where Khin Nyunt allegedly gave him protection and allowed him to build the biggest drug network in Burma.
Wei felt secure in Burma and didn't undergo plastic surgery on his face, according to one person who saw him at Van Hong in the southern part of the Wa region last month.
"He often stays in Nam Tain of Tang Yang township in the northern Wa region and keeps in touch with Pau Yu Chang and other Wa leaders," said the Wa source, who also predicted that these two and other "close associates" of Khin Nyunt might face problems.
Another of Khin Nyunt's close friends and key supporters is a Kokang Chinese by the name of Lo Hsing Han, allegedly one of the world's biggest heroin traffickers. He is also chairman of Burma's largest group of companies, Asia World Co Ltd.
Lo Hsing Han was convicted and sentenced to death in 1973 _ not for drug trafficking, but for treason.
Yet he was freed under a general amnesty in 1980 and allegedly came to control the biggest drug-trafficking organisation in Southeast Asia in the early 1990s. According to US narcotic officials, he also served as an adviser on ethnic affairs to Khin Nyunt.
A confidential Thai law enforcement memo in February 1993 referred to Lo Hsing Han's "privilege", granted by then Brigadier General Khin Nyunt, to take a cargo from the Kokang group to Tachilek (on the Thai border) without interception.
Lo Hsing Han's son, U Tun Myint Naing, a.k.a. Steven Law, developed an extraordinarily close friendship with Khin Nyunt. Stephen is Asia World's managing director and is also accused of being involved in the drug business. He was refused entry into the United States in early 1996 because of "suspicion of drug trafficking".
Khin Nyunt initiated peace talks with Burma's biggest opposition group, the Karen National Union (KNU) and even hosted a birthday party in Rangoon for the group's vice president, General Saw Bo Mya, in January 2004. This didn't make Than Shwe very happy.
An unprecedented and well-calculated move to challenge and discredit Khin Nyunt was the intrusion of 50 armed SPDC troops into the UWSA region on September 22 of this year. The troops were, however, disarmed and apprehended by the Wa troops, and released three days later.
The deputy commander of the UWSA, Bo Lai Kham, complained to the Burmese military commander in Lashio, who denied any knowledge of the intrusion. The UWSA also directly informed Khin Nyunt, who was apparently really surprised, saying that he knew nothing about it but would find out who had given the order.
The Wa leadership, unhappy with the unfolding situation, called an emergency meeting to discuss the problem at the end of September and agreed not to allow SPDC troops to enter their territory. They also ordered their well-equipped 30,000-strong army to be ready to fight any invasion.
A senior member of the Wa leadership said during a telephone interview from Pang Sang last Monday that it was "too early" to speculate what effect the dismissal of Khin Nyunt would have on the Wa. He stressed that China would support and protect the Wa unconditionally, something even General Maung Aye already knows.
"The SPDC has no reason to invade our region. For what? What would it gain?" said the Wa leader.
He stressed, however, that if their territory were invaded, the Wa would fight to the death _ no matter who the aggressor.
During the interview he also dismissed the overtures made by some Burmese exiles abroad, saying: "We are not interested in making contact with them at this time. We have nothing to gain."
CHINA'S DISMAY
According to a well-informed diplomatic source, the removal of Khin Nyunt is expected to be greeted with some dismay in Beijing. The deposed prime minister was keen to develop economic ties with China, which also appreciated his friendship with the Wa. However, said the source, "The Chinese had been well aware that he was in a power struggle with the hardliners."
Last month, Khin Nyunt returned from Beijing with "an armful of trade deals and soft loans to boost his clout at home," provided courtesy of the Chinese government to keep him in his position, as he was seen as the best bet for maintaining stability in Burma.
Khin Nyunt is, as are most of the top SPDC leaders, involved in many business ventures with prominent Burmese businessmen. Close friend U Htay Myint is one of the wealthiest men in Burma and owns many large companies in which Khin Nyunt is a shareholder. He has shares in Myawaddy and Asia Wealth Bank and is a part-owner of the Myanmar Times, a weekly English language newspaper published in Rangoon.
After Khin Nyunt's removal, over a dozen of publications were suspended "indefinitely" or for a "limited period," including the Myanmar Times, whose editor-in-chief is Australian-born Ross Dunkley.
Some opposition figures believed that by firing Khin Nyunt, Than Shwe removed one of the three layers that were protecting the "collective leadership", making the regime more vulnerable than before. "The friction and infighting between the Burmese elite will surely increase and anything could happen _ sooner or later. Than Shwe miscalculated. This might speed up the inevitable total collapse of the regime," said a Burmese analyst.
After the announcement of Khin Nyunt's removal, Than Shwe's loyalist Lt-Gen Soe Win, who was holding the position of SPDC Secretary -1, was declared the new prime minister. His promotion will likely be seen as a strengthening of the position of military hardliners within the Burmese leadership.
US State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said Washington had received credible reports that Lt-Gen Soe Win was "directly involved in the decision to carry out the brutal attack on Aung San Suu Kyi and her convoy on May 30, 2003."
On that day scores of her supporters were killed and injured at Depayin, near Mandalay, after the attack by a mob of pro-government youth, and hundreds of supporters were arrested afterward. Aung San Suu Kyi has been under house arrest since that day.
Dr Sein Win, appointed prime minister by the US-based National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma, stated after learning of the latest developments: "Without corrective intervention, we are concerned that the generals will continue to ignore popular opinion and step up hostilities against ethnic and democracy movements and threaten the security of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and other democratic leaders. Regional and neighbouring countries, which have been supporting and defending the Burmese generals regardless, should also adopt appropriate measures to guide Burma back on the correct path toward democracy."