After days of speculation over the fate of Burmese Prime Minister Gen. Khin Nyunt, the country's official media announced that he was permitted to retire for health reasons. The reasons given were usual for someone who had been removed from the inner circle.
Earlier the Thai government had said Burma's prime minister was removed on charges of corruption and put under house arrest and that his two sons were detained. The elder son is a light infantry commander. The younger son, Ye Naing Oo, runs Bagan Cyber Tech, the only Internet provider in Burma. Recently, part of a Thai government loan to Burma went toward expanding Naing Oo's business. Several intelligence officers were arrested, too.
Nothing unusual in Burma is expected as a result of the arrests and removals. It's routine business. The most powerful and cunning will overpower a suspicious subordinate. Although Khin Nyunt served as a protege of former ruler Ne Win, his appointed border-security officers had become corrupt. People who conduct border trade were glad to see them removed earlier this month. According to rumors, authorities seized large amounts of jade, narcotics and other valuables intended for smuggling at the border.
The economic undertakings of various wings of military intelligence (MI), had overstepped the interests of mainstream army operations. The new foreign minister, Nyan Win, following close-door meetings with foreign ambassadors, blamed Khin Nyunt for a recent case of corruption. Separately, Nyan Win asserted that the regime would carry out the democratization process and peace negotiations with insurgent groups.
U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan has expressed concern over the removal of Khin Nyunt and urged the regime to continue democratization. The U.S. State Department has challenged the appointment of the new prime minister, Lt. Gen. Soe Win, who is believed to have carried out the Depeyin Massacre -- the May 30, 2003, attack against Suu Kyi's political entourage.
Khin Nyunt gained prominence in MI on the army sidelines. All political arrests were directly ordered and conducted by MI, but to Khin Nyunt's disadvantage he had almost no fighting forces under his control. So he couldn't muster up resistance on his own behalf.
What is in Burma's political future? There are many possibilities. Soe Win has opposed the transfer of power to Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD), which won the last election and claimed 392 of 485 parliamentary seats in May 1990. He reaffirmed his opposition in 2002 while Suu Kyi was touring Yakhaing state in western Burma.
Given Soe Win's prominent role in the 2003 attack on Suu Kyi's entourage -- which resulted in the jailing of Suu Kyi, NLD leader U Tin U and hundreds of followers, most of whom were injured in the attack -- the democratization of Burma looks bleaker than ever. Soe Win, considered loyal and religious, has successfully carried out road and dam construction projects entrusted to him by Gen. Than Shwe, who chairs the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), the body that actually governs Burma.
There is hope, though, that in order to raise the image of the new prime minister the SPDC may reassess the cases of political prisoners and release some of them. Actually many of the prisoners never posed a danger to the regime, but MI victimized them to make itself appear as the regime's protector. Most Burmese despise MI more than the regular army.
The political opposition has predicted that the prospect of Suu Kyi's release from house arrest is remote and that the NLD and its activists should expect a tougher crackdown at any time. The opposition would do better, however, to await the outcome of the changes in government and refrain from making unfruitful comments through foreign broadcast stations.
The reasons why the regime does not want to work with NLD and Suu Kyi must be explored. The opposition must seek a channel for conferring with the new leadership. If the new prime minister is really religious, the opposition should expect a better relationship, as an honest enemy is better than a crooked friend.
The regime knows that the country needs immediate remedies. What many people of Burma regret is not just the suffering of people in general and the lack of respect from other countries (which view the regime as a villain) but also the country's backwardness compared with neighboring nations.
In Burma, the military regime has been turning against the people's representatives for 16 years now. Only reconciliation can bring respect, prosperity and peace to the country. The first step is for the regime to share power with the elected representatives.
Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi welcomed the military regime as a new partner in the Asia-Europe Meeting, while the European Union held its tongue because of the continued detainment of Suu Kyi and the regime's poor record on human rights. Koizumi's approach, from an Asian perspective, is an appropriate one.
It is the regime's turn to comply with Koizumi's good will and that of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations. All of them urge the release of Suu Kyi and progress toward democratization. The regime shouldn't turn its back on its benefactors.