For the generals of Burma bad omens are on the rise. If the military regime fails to find an intelligent way out of the current quagmire the utter devastation of Burma is likely.
A recent news photo of Senior Gen. Than Shwe showed him to be a frail man while he was said to be performing the duties of state "round the clock". Aside from the speculated rift between the top military brass the question of who will succeed Than Shwe is likely to be a major headache for the junta.
They need to reconvene the long adjourned National Convention in November with more than a rhetorical tinge of legitimacy. Then there is the Herculean task of drafting a new constitution in two months' time. The regime is uncertain whether it will garner full support from the handpicked convention delegates.
Even staunch supporter and champion of the Burmese military regime, Thai Prime Minister, Thaksin dares not comment on Burmese politics these days, as his counterpart and friend former Gen. Khin Nyunt serves a suspended 44-year prison term.
Add to this the withdrawal of Global Fund from Burma, which brought US $ 100-million-worth of health assistance to Burma because of the imposition of the regime's whimsical travel and other restrictions. This has exacerbated the already deteriorating healthcare situation in Burma.
At the same time, '88-generation students inside Burma, exiled pro-democracy forces and the National League for Democracy are calling for urgent humanitarian aid for Burma's people. But they have demanded that aid projects should be free from corruption and totally unrestricted.
Though the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) wants money, it tends to worry about giving political space to pro-democracy forces and has yet to respond to calls for the end of restrictions. If the government responds, it will be faced with a dilemma. By agreeing, the generals would have to go back on almost every argument they have made in the past two decades.
As Burma's situation continues to deteriorate, the former Czech President Vaclav Havel and Bishop Desmond Tutu have rubbed salt in the junta's wounds by releasing a report calling for United Nations Security Council action on Burma. Though it is doubtful that this motion for referral to the Security Council will be passed because of the vetoes of Russia and China, it remains a grave threat to the regime and is upping international pressure.
The regime's oldest ally, China, has its own problems with the SPDC, balancing economic and political interests, cross-border drug trafficking from Burma, rising drug addiction in China, and the spread of HIV-AIDS.
The SPDC might be anxious over the changing attitude of China towards Burma, but it will have to turn to them for support if it comes to a UN debate.
Inexperienced Prime Minister Soe Win's recent cancellation of his visits to China and Russia suggest relations with these countries are not as good as the junta claims.
Though US and EU sanctions on Burma are highly controversial, they do not strain the regime. As the deteriorating economy gave birth to the Burma Socialist Programme Party during Gen. Ne Win's regime, the SPDC has given birth to the Union Solidarity and Development Association.
But the association is unlikely to help the generals pass their military dictatorship off in civilian clothing.