A high-level delegation from the International Labour Organisation has arrived in Rangoon on a four-day official visit. It is the highest level contact between the labour body and the Burmese government for several years. During the visit, the ILO team hope to meet top government ministers, opposition leaders and representatives of the ethnic groups.
The ILO has been increasingly critical of the lack of progress towards eliminating forced labour in Burma over the last 12 months, and there is growing pressure from the trade union movement within the organisation to agree to impose economic sanctions on Rangoon. The delegation's visit is meant to assess the situation and report back to the meeting of the organisation's governing body in Geneva next month.
The high-level ILO team is being led by a former governor-general of Australia, Sir Ninian Stephen, who also headed the last high-level visit four years ago which conducted one of the most comprehensive investigations ever into forced labour in Burma.
The other two members are the former Swiss president Ruth Dreifuss and a former ILO governing body chairman and former South Korean ambassador to Geneva, Chung Eui-yong, who is now chairman of the foreign relations committee for his country's ruling party.
``It may be a make or break visit,'' according to a Western diplomat in Rangoon. ``It entirely depends on whether they see Than Shwe and the content of their meeting with him.''
A meeting with the country's top general is highly unlikely, according to UN sources in Rangoon. ``The best they can expect to do is to meet the prime minister, Lieutenant-General Soe Win,'' the diplomat said.
The delegation has asked to meet all the key members of the Burmese government, including the prime minister, foreign minister, home minister and labour minister, according to UN sources. All these ministers are relatively new, put into place after the former prime minister and intelligence chief General Khin Nyunt was arrested four months ago and his supporters in government purged from power.
All these ministers are regarded by diplomats in Rangoon as loyal supporters of Senior General Than Shwe and hardliners who are less interested in engaging the international community and having a dialogue on human rights issues.
But the ILO governing body at its last meeting in November in Geneva decided to give the regime one last chance and agreed to send the high-level team to discuss the organisation's relations with the generals before deciding future policy. An ILO call for sanctions is what the regime fears most, and this has probably prompted Rangoon to allow the delegation access to the country.
For most of last year, the situation of forced labour in Burma deteriorated dramatically. There was an increase in the number of reported cases of forced labour and a growing intransigence on the part of the authorities, according to the ILO. The worst case was when several people who had complained against the use of forced labour and had contacted international organisations like the ILO were convicted of high treason. They were sentenced to long jail terms with hard labour.
There have been some significant signs of improvement in recent months, according to ILO officials. Two of those convicted of treason have had their sentences quashed, although they are still in jail for belonging to an illegal organisation, the Federation of Trade Unions of Burma. In a more significant move, four local officials in a village 100km east of Rangoon were convicted last month of imposing forced labour and given prison sentences.
But this is a long way from banning forced labour. Ethnic groups along the border, especially with Thailand, have reported a major increase in the use of forced labour since former prime minister Khin Nyunt was deposed. The demise of military intelligence increased the power and authority of the regional commanders. These commanders believed they had carte blanche to do what they liked after Gen Khin Nyunt was removed, according to a senior Asian diplomat.
Military experts believe the Burmese army could not function without using forced labour or forced conscription of young men into the army. The ILO's latest report from Rangoon last November documented several cases of young teenagers being abducted against their will and inducted into the army with threats of imprisonment if they refused.
The US-based group Human Rights Watch Asia has documented thousands of cases of forced recruitment of child soldiers. In its detailed report published three years ago, it estimated there were more than 70,000 soldiers in the Burmese army under the age of eighteen. Most of these had been forced to join. Many were tortured and brutalised during their basic training.
Many members of the ILO have become impatient with Rangoon's failure to dramatically clean up its act and are sceptical of the regime's claims it is sincere in its efforts to make progress.
``The high-level team hopes to get a concrete commitment from Burma's military leaders that they are going to stamp out forced labour and discuss measures to strengthen this,'' according to a senior ILO officer.
That is why a meeting with Gen Than Shwe is seen as so important by ILO officials and diplomats in Rangoon. In the end, they will probably have to be satisfied with discussing the issue with Prime Minister Soe Win.
Burma's military rulers are worried about the potential power of the ILO. They know that if the body calls for action, including sanctions, it could really hurt them. One of the key measures being considered is a ban on the loading and unloading of Burmese cargoes by shipping unions. This would hit the country's already crippled exports hard and make imports even more difficult.
But the regime may also be looking ahead to later this year when it is expected to hold a referendum on the new constitution that is currently being drafted by the National Convention.
``Curbing forced labour and its current anti-corruption campaign may be the ways the army hopes to convince people to vote for their new constitution,'' said a senior Western diplomat in Rangoon.
Since Gen Khin Nyunt fell, Burma's military rulers have been intent on strengthening their control of government. They are only prepared to make concessions that they believe will help them retain their power.
So it is more than likely that the ILO delegation will leave Rangoon relatively empty handed. In such a case, there will be stronger moves, led by the international trade union movement, for tougher sanctions against Burma.