Myanmar's foiled coup may scupper opposition talks
BANGKOK, March 11 — Arrests over the weekend of senior figures in Myanmar may be evidence of a move by hardliners against reformers rather than an attempt to prevent a coup, diplomats and opposition activists said on Monday.
Myanmar's military rulers said over the weekend they had thwarted a coup attempt by arresting four relatives of former dictator Ne Win, who ruled for 25 years until 1988, and by sacking three high-ranking officials linked to them.
Military intelligence officials said the coup was motivated by greed as the plotters had been muscled out of lucrative business deals because of the waning influence of Ne Win.
But observers say the real explanation for the arrests could be a long-running tussle between army chief Maung Aye and military intelligence chief Khin Nyunt for power in the leadership triumvirate currently headed by Than Shwe.
Khin Nyunt is seen as more moderate than Maung Aye, and more tolerant of United Nations-brokered talks between the military and Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy.
''They both have the same strategy -- to stay in power and get important positions in the future Burma,'' Sonny Mahinder, a leader of the exiled All Burma Students Democratic Front, told Reuters in Bangkok. ''It's just their strategies which are different,'' he said. ''The hardliners don't want to see the talks go smoothly or lose current power to civilians.''
POWER STRUGGLE
Khin Nyunt has been in the ascendancy in recent years after several allies of Maung Aye retired in the late 1990s. But the arrests are likely to weaken Khin Nyunt's hand and strengthen more hardline elements of the junta, analysts say.
Khin Nyunt is thought to be close to Ne Win, 92, and his favourite daughter Sandar Win, who was confined to her house while her husband and three sons were arrested last week.
''People predict Khin Nyunt will have no power when Ne Win dies,'' said Aung Zaw, editor of Bangkok-based Irrawaddy magazine. Aung Zaw said although military intelligence carried out the arrests, Khin Nyunt may have had little choice in the matter if he did not want to be linked with the coup plot.
''If the whole thing was organised by Maung Aye, and Khin Nyunt had no choice, it would handicap Khin Nyunt's power base,'' he said.
On Monday diplomats in Yangon were struggling to understand who was behind the coup and the arrests at a time when international focus is on Myanmar. A European Union mission is due in Myanmar on Wednesday to encourage the reconciliation talks between the military and the NLD, and U.N. envoy Razali Ismail, who set up the talks, plans a four-day visit from March 19. ''We're speculating all over the place,'' said one Western diplomat.
''CONSOLIDATING POWER''
Impoverished Myanmar, isolated politically and economically since Ne Win introduced military rule with a coup, has shown signs in recent years of trying to improve its image.
But many in the NLD have been frustrated at the slow pace of the talks. They demand the release of Suu Kyi from house arrest and faster progress towards a political settlement.
Aung Zaw said if hardliners in the military have their way, the talks will come to nothing. ''This could lead to the government strengthening its position and consolidating power,'' he said.
Diplomats earlier said that more arrests and dismissals were expected in coming days, and all 12 regional military commanders had been summoned to Yangon for discussions.
Analysts have said the swift action showed unity in the ranks of the ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), which has ruled under in one guise or another since rejecting the results of 1990 election won by Suu Kyi.